Topic: [prediction] Next spike $560,000 14 {<-oops!} months from now (2017 Update!) - page 15. (Read 71511 times)

The market is hard to predict.

Real analysis is very hard, because of the tendency to see in the data what you hope for or expect, rather than what is there.  The same difficulty applies to all of life, of course; financial analysis is only a distillation of it.

Some people do analysis.  This involves not only learning and/or making up a bunch of plausible-seeming rules, but actually applying those rules to at least a dozen past situations to see how valid they are and eliminating rules which aren't, before attempting to apply those which are to the current situation to see what they predict.  But there is always guesswork in determining which past situations are sufficiently "like" the present situation to be good tests for your rules.  And this guesswork is always sabotaged by your own subconscious because you know how those past situations turned out. Your mind will inevitably try its best to justify a rule you like as applied to the current situation by picking as "tests" past situations which justify it. 

Some people try to find out everything they can, form a gut instinct, and, if they believe it's undervalued, they buy it and hold it until it seems overvalued. 

Some people make up a bunch of plausible-sounding rules, skip the validity checks, draw a lot of lines on graphs, and then make a somewhat-educated wild-assed guess based on where the lines fall. 

Some take stock of what they know and suppose that others don't, and conclude that they should value something higher or lower than others because of that knowledge.   For example, someone who knew that Satoshi's coins can never be spent, could conclude from the knowledge that because he knows this and others don't, he should value Bitcoin higher than they do as having that much less risk.

In a speculative market the crowd is wrong.  A successful speculator is not making money from the issue itself; he is making money from the other traders.  He makes money by believing the opposite of what those around him or her believe.  When the market is rocketing upwards at awe-inspiring highs and everybody is yelling "TO DA MOON, BABY!!" the speculator who makes money is very carefully selling to them.  When the market is plumbing new depths and everyone despairs, the speculator who makes money is quietly, steadily, buying in at the lows. 

One of the easiest strategies for human beings is listening to and believing the wisdom of others.  It's a human default; we are social animals, and living in a shared reality, shared wisdom is usually applicable.  Moreover, shared belief makes for cultural compatibility and trust, and cultural compatibility and trust lead to friendship. 

Most of these, believe it or not, are fairly valid strategies, though the markets in which they work best vary.  The last however will never earn more than market rates, and, contrasted to the one above it, is a prescription for losing everything you have in any market whose movements are driven mainly by speculation.

Now, simply ask yourself;  What kind of a market do we have here?  To what degree is it fundamentals-driven?  To what degree is it speculative?  Is it subject to real analysis, or is it too novel for there to be applicable precedent?  Do you feel that you know enough for your 'gut instinct' to be valid?  Do you know anything that others do not know?  Are there *specific* things  you think the crowd is wrong about?  Has your opinion about the *value* of the asset remained stable through its last several movements of *price* and if so which is now higher? Are you making decisions on the basis of believing others?

What kind of strategy works well or poorly in the kind of market you think we have?  Your course of action should be one you figure out yourself, based on that strategy.

Cryddit.

Next one who has not read OP, but tries to offend. Read first, then think, then speak. That's the right order.

lol@thread title.


And you wonder why the general public views the average bitcoiner in such a negative light. Overly paranoid, dillusional, conspiracy theorizing libertarian neckbeards.   Some of you guys are just as bad as MLM marketers and phone telemarketers, if not worse.

Very good points indeed. I wonder if OIL trolls scream OIL IS DEAD on forums as much as our trolls scream here


I do see a couple of differences thou
1. Its way too skinny and small and new (lower barrier to entry for manipulation)
2. Its not properly regulated yet (there's no oversight) this makes it a fav playing ground for some scum

I agree entirely. That explains why a move from 12 to 266 to 60 to 1200 to 160 is possible. Its mostly speculation. There does however seem to be a small component of underlying value based on utility.

The thing with exchange rates is you are pricing one money in a another money, which is as you say a largely speculative exercise.

Goods are priced in money, and so the converse is true. Money can be priced in goods.

If you do this for dollars thats how you understand the underlying value of the dollar - what you can 'get' with it. not how many rules, or swiss francs or BTC someone will give you for it, thats just arbitrage and speculation.

So it goes that you can do this for bitcoin. BTC can be priced in goods. At the moment a lot of people that accept BTC convert straight back to the dollar. The next step is that people start to transact in bitcoin using the dollar as a proxy. The more places that do this, and the more people use it, the more people will start to realise they don't have to convert back to the dollar - after all doing so is costing them exchange fees. So they start keeping a  small BTC float. Then maybe people start to work entirely in BTC only converting when they have to buy something from someone who doesn't yet accept BTC, and raising there eyebrows at the same time! Then BTC is money.

The world won't change overnight, BTC going to $XXX isn't the 'success', all the people focused on price miss the point. Thats the point. Now, all of that stuff might not happen, but equally likely it could. For that reason I hold, not because my BTC will be worth $XXX in future but because I'll be able to use those BTC as money.

Because I don't know for sure though, it would be foolish of me to put everything I have into BTC and wait. So I don't I allocate assets according to risk I perceive. If I become over invested in dollar terms then maybe I rebalance. If I can afford to buy when prices are low, I rebalance.

1. One relatively major currency had dropped more than 50% in a few months (rub), resulting in "evaporation" in ~$1 tril in GDP.
2. Another major currency changed hands 20% higher as a result of one (albeit major) announcement. I am talking about CHF/EUR of course.
major brokers STOPPED trading the pair (maybe temporarily).
http://forexmagnates.com/eurchf-crash-leads-brokers-to-halt-trading-in-chf-pairs/
3. A major commodity (oil) lost 60% of its value in a few months without any recession being apparent.

What does it tell you? To me it tells that a significant % of value of the above is determined by speculation and is NOT an intrinsic property.
I fail to see how bitcoin is any different. At least we know the emission rate until 2140.

That is an interesting chart! I think it it will serve people well to remember that outsized moves in bitcoin happen seem to happen in both directions. Which was the point of the post.

It's easy to say when we are at 1200 that we'll go back to 200 before we go back up, and feel confident that the correction to 200 is natural and the subsequent rise is inevitable because how else will it capture x% of global remittance (which is the 'success' endgame scenario) and usurp broken currencies. To do this, it will have to grow exponentially in terms of market cap (and hence price).

When we are actually at 200 its much harder to maintain that belief!

I think mostly alts trade with bitcoin but with higher beta due to thinner market / less liquidity. If BTC goes up they'll probably all go up. *shrugs* I dunno. I bought a few of them way back when it seemed like a good idea. Hold them because its not worth selling them.

A Chart you might find interesting: https://www.tradingview.com/v/dHbn7XZ4/

sgbett
Amazing forecast. very difficult to believe, but.....you can be right. What do you think about litecoin? If bitcoin rise as you think there is no place in peoples mind for other forks.

:^)

Sigh...
We were thinking about Bitcoin going to the moon a few months back!

Haven't posted here in forever, but thought you guys might be interested in a prediction centered around $500 by June:

___________

Bitcoin above $500 in June, 2015 Options: Yes | No

Nice try. I respect fallllling and we have worked together in the past on various bitcoin related projects. he's a very smart individual and confided in me that he will not be returning after all the dastardly abuse he received by you people.

oh well, should have listened to him, he warned you since $600 that this would happen and you banned him!

The evidence is strong in this one!

so "riiiiising" == "falllling"

I called it:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9604488

And for context on how he plays both sides and runs his sockpuppets:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/do-we-owe-falllling-an-apology-865366

it is me! far from rich though

edit: maybe i'm wrong though, http://www.globalrichlist.com list puts me in the top 1% hehe (by income I should add! wealth, not so much)

as dark is it looks right now price wise, I still think a lot is happening in terms of adoption, stuff we could have only dreamed of a few years ago (Paypal, Microsoft) so unless something comes up to spoil that - malicious or otherwise - I still think that mass adoption can happen.

I think that will take time, but I think that if it starts to go mainstream then we will see huge swings in dollar valuation of BTC as outlined in OP.

The (time) length of cycles seems to be increasing the last bear market was long. The magnitude of moves up seem to correlate to the length - necessarily so. A bigger move requires more time.

So lets say this is the bottom around $300, and instead of 3 month run up we have a 9 month one, and instead of a x20 move we have a x400 one then all of a sudden $120k is totally possible. throw in the etf and wall st involvement, where money is like water? 580k by november .... I wouldn't bet against it!

(and for those that miss the implied counter position by that statement I wouldn't risk that much betting *for* it either.)

sgbett is that you in the picture? you look rich

You can't figure out where the market is going. I can't. That's something *you* still need to learn.

I see you still haven't read the first post so I'll quote the relevant parts:



and as the thread develops just to make sure people understand:


and just in case you are still in doubt...