Predictions through 2016 | Bitcointalksearch.org

g27wr

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I see us around $10,000 by the end of 2014. If we hit that general price area then I suppose 2016 will be in the hundreds of thousand dollars range.

This is judging by the trend line.

Of course, if we deviate wildly from that then all bets are off.

It's definitely possible. I just don't see it happening this year, but you could be right.

porcupine87

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hm

Quote from: chessnut on March 13, 2014, 04:34:10 PM

Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 01:06:58 AM

Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.

the market cannot be explained by a formula, because people are irrational. all one needs is a measure of sentiment, basic fundamental knowledge, and chart reading for entry and exit.

No, people are rational, but prices have to do with expectations. And expectations are unpredictable and follow no formula.

But sure. Take 1000 stocks and predict future prices based on a formula. I think a few of them will behave like predicted. Why? Because of stochastics. Pic a number on the roulette table for 100 times. You will be right 3 times. But does this mean, you predicted it?

harkonnen

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Quote from: arepo on March 13, 2014, 10:58:02 AM

Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 01:06:58 AM

Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.

does anyone else see the irony here? Grin

You are not good at comprehension. OP is trying to present his bullshit as of some kind of scientific accuracy or credibility. What I'm trying to say is 'my simple speculation of gut feeling' is as much accurate and credible as OP's speculation. Capisci?

alexeft

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2016 will have a HUGE jump due to mining reward halving.

hellscabane

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Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 04:26:30 PM

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 04:21:31 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 02:59:55 PM

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 02:56:01 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000

Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.

It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize.

That's fair, I only mention it because when I read that part, tons of flags went off in my head. I actually think you have a reasonably lucid justification for the price points and development along the way.

I agree that the success that Overstock has had will likely materialize into something much more significant and adoption by a Fortune 100 retail company would be a huge step. Although Bitcoin is still yet to be adopted by a Fortune 500 retail company. What I could imagine happening is there being major companies that transact in BTC for the convenience for most people.

Agreed. Once a big player such as Google, Walmart, etc adopt it, I think we'll see an increase in value like nothing else in history. My cap of $25,000 could be way off. It may be closer to $100,000. Some say that's a crazy value, but it is mathematically possible.

$2T is theoretically possible in 4-5 years, although that's asking for a 250 times increase in market growth. Sure, a near similar factor happened in the last 4 years, but this time we'd be starting with a much larger base.

Personally, I tend to be more conservative with my growth predictions. After all, before the first spike of 2013, I said we'd be at around $400 at the end of 2014. That was quite conservative...

g27wr

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Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on March 13, 2014, 04:33:38 PM

Nice speculation and I hope you are right. But without having a stable price for a long period, I don´t see Bitcoins implemented by big companies.

How can you count bitcoin as a payment method when the price jumps daily. Just my 2 cents. And I´m no troll, I´m 90% in Bitcoin.

I agree, but I think we're seeing a stable price right now around $640-$650. If it continues and creeps up over the next 3-4 months, I'll add some check marks next to my first predictions in the coming year Wink

chessnut

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Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 01:06:58 AM

Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.

the market cannot be explained by a formula, because people are irrational. all one needs is a measure of sentiment, basic fundamental knowledge, and chart reading for entry and exit.

UnDerDoG81

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Nice speculation and I hope you are right. But without having a stable price for a long period, I don´t see Bitcoins implemented by big companies.

How can you count bitcoin as a payment method when the price jumps daily. Just my 2 cents. And I´m no troll, I´m 90% in Bitcoin.

g27wr

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I like guns.

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 04:21:31 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 02:59:55 PM

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 02:56:01 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000

Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.

It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize.

That's fair, I only mention it because when I read that part, tons of flags went off in my head. I actually think you have a reasonably lucid justification for the price points and development along the way.

I agree that the success that Overstock has had will likely materialize into something much more significant and adoption by a Fortune 100 retail company would be a huge step. Although Bitcoin is still yet to be adopted by a Fortune 500 retail company. What I could imagine happening is there being major companies that transact in BTC for the convenience for most people.

Agreed. Once a big player such as Google, Walmart, etc adopt it, I think we'll see an increase in value like nothing else in history. My cap of $25,000 could be way off. It may be closer to $100,000. Some say that's a crazy value, but it is mathematically possible.

hellscabane

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Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 02:59:55 PM

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 02:56:01 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000

Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.

It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize.

That's fair, I only mention it because when I read that part, tons of flags went off in my head. I actually think you have a reasonably lucid justification for the price points and development along the way.

I agree that the success that Overstock has had will likely materialize into something much more significant and adoption by a Fortune 100 retail company would be a huge step. Although Bitcoin is still yet to be adopted by a Fortune 500 retail company. What I could imagine happening is there being major companies that transact in BTC for the convenience for most people.

MNDan

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A buddy of mine wanted to invest in Bitcoin and wired me $6000. He didn't care how many "coins" he was getting - he wanted $6000 worth of Bitcoin at the going rate, so I got it for him (at $525 - not bad) and put it in a paper wallet. I'd hope that most buyers would think of it the same way - they are just "buying Bitcoin" - where Bitcoin is a plural describing a commodity that can be broken up so granularly that it might as well be gold dust coming out of a stream.

"I will take $6000 worth of gold dust, please! At the current market rate, of course!"

g27wr

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Quote from: Biodom on March 13, 2014, 03:07:52 PM

Quote from: MNDan on March 13, 2014, 01:42:14 PM

Quote from: Biodom on March 13, 2014, 01:07:05 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

I have done my own speculation over the past few months (like everyone else) and am confident in my speculations.

Jul '16 = $9,900
More businesses and average folks are adopting Bitcoin faster than ever before because they are seeing how easy it is to get Bitcoins and make purchases, and realize the freedom it offers.

Dec '16 = $16,000+
I don't think Dec '16 needs an explanation based on the previous comments. As Bitcoin becomes more popular, the price will continue to rise until demand slows down, which I see happening in later years (2018, 2019).

Explain why the difference from the trendline analysis:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

In my opinion, nobody, but institutions will be buying whole bitcoins at $10K, it is just silly to imagine otherwise.
However, regular folks might be buying and using millies (mBTC).
Therefore, bitcoin prices has to be switched to either mBTC or satoshi's quite soon.

It's so funny the number of people in this day and age who don't understand...decimal points.

It does not mean that I don't, Wink

However, try to explain to anyone that they can buy 0.01 BTC and see their reaction.

I see this all the time. When I mention Bitcoin to people who are slightly familiar with it, I get responses such as "Yea I'd get some but can't afford them at such a high price".

*facepalm*

I tell them "You can go up to 8 decimal points out" and then they start to see the picture.

ickyt2012

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Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 06:26:54 AM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 01:09:08 AM

Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 01:06:58 AM

Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.

It's not bs, it's speculation based on hypothetical situations dealing with business and consumer engagement moving forward. If it were bs, you could tell me with 100% certainty that I'm not correct (which you can't do unless you can predict the future).

You are not still explaining how did you come to your conclusion. Therefore, your prediction is total bullshit.
Also can't you see I am telling you with 100% certainty (with confidence I might add) that you are total bullshit while you are only speculating with baseless assumptions?

Ha!

Quote from: arepo on March 13, 2014, 10:58:02 AM

Quote from: harkonnen on March 13, 2014, 01:06:58 AM

Unless you can explain your speculation with some formula, it's all bs.
My simple speculation of gut feeling is about $2000/BTC around Dec 2016.

does anyone else see the irony here? Grin

Also, Ha!

Biodom

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Quote from: MNDan on March 13, 2014, 01:42:14 PM

Quote from: Biodom on March 13, 2014, 01:07:05 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

I have done my own speculation over the past few months (like everyone else) and am confident in my speculations.

Jul '16 = $9,900
More businesses and average folks are adopting Bitcoin faster than ever before because they are seeing how easy it is to get Bitcoins and make purchases, and realize the freedom it offers.

Dec '16 = $16,000+
I don't think Dec '16 needs an explanation based on the previous comments. As Bitcoin becomes more popular, the price will continue to rise until demand slows down, which I see happening in later years (2018, 2019).

Explain why the difference from the trendline analysis:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

In my opinion, nobody, but institutions will be buying whole bitcoins at $10K, it is just silly to imagine otherwise.
However, regular folks might be buying and using millies (mBTC).
Therefore, bitcoin prices has to be switched to either mBTC or satoshi's quite soon.

It's so funny the number of people in this day and age who don't understand...decimal points.

It does not mean that I don't, Wink

However, try to explain to anyone that they can buy 0.01 BTC and see their reaction.

g27wr

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Activity: 221

Merit: 100

I like guns.

Quote from: hellscabane on March 13, 2014, 02:56:01 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000

Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.

It's just a feeling, obviously, but we're dealing with a whole different beast here. I think it will peak, and then over a few years level off much lower and then stabilize. My reason for this is because I see big companies, fortune 100 companies, picking it up in masses in a few years time which will bring people quickly to bitcoin. Then, over a few years, users will slow down and drop off, and we'll stabilize.

hellscabane

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Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

My anticipation is a peak price during it's lifetime of ~$25,000 (probably mid-end of 2017) and come 2019-2020, we'll see it drop and level out around $15,000

Whoa, that is not a light statement. You're talking about going from over a $450bn cap to under $300bn cap. That's a lot of money. Heck, not even Apple has that much cash on hand (and they have a lot). Even in major financial markets, a $150bn swing is not something to sneeze at. If BTC has as much adoption as you anticipate, a swing like that would have massive impact.

MNDan

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Quote from: Biodom on March 13, 2014, 01:07:05 PM

Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

I have done my own speculation over the past few months (like everyone else) and am confident in my speculations.

Jul '16 = $9,900
More businesses and average folks are adopting Bitcoin faster than ever before because they are seeing how easy it is to get Bitcoins and make purchases, and realize the freedom it offers.

Dec '16 = $16,000+
I don't think Dec '16 needs an explanation based on the previous comments. As Bitcoin becomes more popular, the price will continue to rise until demand slows down, which I see happening in later years (2018, 2019).

Explain why the difference from the trendline analysis:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

In my opinion, nobody, but institutions will be buying whole bitcoins at $10K, it is just silly to imagine otherwise.
However, regular folks might be buying and using millies (mBTC).
Therefore, bitcoin prices has to be switched to either mBTC or satoshi's quite soon.

It's so funny the number of people in this day and age who don't understand...decimal points.

Biodom

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Quote from: g27wr on March 13, 2014, 12:33:36 AM

I have done my own speculation over the past few months (like everyone else) and am confident in my speculations.

Jul '16 = $9,900
More businesses and average folks are adopting Bitcoin faster than ever before because they are seeing how easy it is to get Bitcoins and make purchases, and realize the freedom it offers.

Dec '16 = $16,000+
I don't think Dec '16 needs an explanation based on the previous comments. As Bitcoin becomes more popular, the price will continue to rise until demand slows down, which I see happening in later years (2018, 2019).

Explain why the difference from the trendline analysis:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/monthly-average-usdbitcoin-price-trend-322058

In my opinion, nobody, but institutions will be buying whole bitcoins at $10K, it is just silly to imagine otherwise.
However, regular folks might be buying and using millies (mBTC).
Therefore, bitcoin prices has to be switched to either mBTC or satoshi's quite soon.

podyx

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