Maybe a new trend is emerging.
Topic: Presenting the 670-day Bitcoin price cycle (Read 7979 times)
Nice work on the graphs. Too bad the trends weren't followed, could have been interesting for many people and their wallets
Maybe a new trend is emerging.
Maybe a new trend is emerging.
I'm going to close off this thread by posting some final updates on the graphs; by now it's clear the trend was not followed, however, it has led me to do some more analysis and come up with some more interesting results, discussed in this new thread.
Here are the final graphs for the 670 day and 694 day price cycles, showing them breaking down:
OK, as requested here is the updated graph to 4 March 2015:
Now clearly we are falling behind the original trend, so the model is falling apart (I can't help but notice how much this graph actually is starting to look like Wobber's prediction!). However, I think there is room to wiggle with. For example, if I align the initial high points of the second peak in each cycle, we get a 694-day cycle which is still OK:
In this model, the run-up to the second peaks align across both previous cycles, and the general run-up to the first peaks also is more or less in agreement. While we have been in a decline over the first part of the current (third) cycle, if we are indeed currently seeing a turnaround and a general upswing that would be in agreement with this revised model.
As I said before, I am mainly having some fun with this. The data is what it is, but I am not (yet) convinced that this is really indicative of a recurring pattern, although I still believe there are natural patterns that will occur in nature (that is the basis for all TA, now, isn't it?)
agreed update graph will give more conversation and speculation on price pls add it
Agreed, looks like the price is trying to get back and stay into the long term trend atm. If we can keep up on up from here over next month things will be looking great.
I was just thinking about this this week actually... Sure, I'll do up an updated graph either tonight or tomorrow. I know it won't match at this point (we're past the point where the old peaks aligned), but let's see what it looks like...
Yeah, please provide an updated version, I think this looks very interesting. I like all those graphs and keep thinking that they're a good indicator of what's to come since people act on them - a self-fulfilling prophecy just like TA!
I like the thought of influencing people by telling them the price cycle to expect then they just do it. Still, what's the "TA"? I didn't understand that reference.
agreed update graph will give more conversation and speculation on price pls add it
Yeah, please provide an updated version, I think this looks very interesting. I like all those graphs and keep thinking that they're a good indicator of what's to come since people act on them - a self-fulfilling prophecy just like TA!
Can we get an updated graph?
Yeah that would be interesting! We actually went down quite a bit form the price in late July 2014! I think this doesn't match up to any previous performance!
Can we get an updated graph?
Nice post but Konrad S. Graf should be credited as well as he created the original YoY graphs. www.konradsgraf.com
Ah, good point. I had read with interest the original year-over-year plot, but had long ago lost track of where I had seen it. Credit where credit is due: original year-over-year comparison article at http://konradsgraf.com/blog1/2013/7/25/tiger-cub-growing-up-bitcoin-weekly-average-closing-prices-y.html
Thanks, keystroke.
Nice post but Konrad S. Graf should be credited as well as he created the original YoY graphs. www.konradsgraf.com
Ah, good point. I had read with interest the original year-over-year plot, but had long ago lost track of where I had seen it. Credit where credit is due: original year-over-year comparison article at http://konradsgraf.com/blog1/2013/7/25/tiger-cub-growing-up-bitcoin-weekly-average-closing-prices-y.html
Thanks, keystroke.
Not exactly trollish but I think we'll see something like this. First 2 plots seem similar but nothing points to a third one happening in the same manner
Nice post but Konrad S. Graf should be credited as well as he created the original YoY graphs. www.konradsgraf.com
Graph is cool and look promising with same pattern.
Hope to see this happen in first quarter of 2015. if graphic is correct and pattern is the same.
Well, it's been interesting to watch the price cycle, but just before I post the updated chart to reflect the trends to today, I just wanted to reiterate a few things.
First, I'm not saying this is what will happen. The price will be what it will be. But people spend so much time saying stuff to compare year to year, like 365 days is some magic number, when it really doesn't mean much (well, other than it being an Earth year). Cycles in nature happen all the time, but time periods vary. Risto's 2-year theory makes a lot of sense to me, and I do think if you objectively look at the trends we are more likely on some sort of longer cycle than one year. Is it 670 days? Who knows?
Second, remember this is the speculation subforum. We're always voting on what we think the price will be in a month, a year, 5 years. Speculation is exactly that. I hope nobody takes the chart and bets money on it (I wouldn't, although I would be happy for it to pan out like this!)
Anyways, time will tell what price will do. So many factors involved nobody knows for sure, but let's wait and see.
So, here's the updated chart:
Now some fun
Comparing the plots, we experienced the same slight downturn at the end of the second (just-ended) cycle that we did at the end of the first cycle. All three cycles have begun with a more-or-less sideways trend. I actually thought the rise up about 10 days ago would coincide nicely with when we were "due" for a start to the run-up, but alas, it was not to be.
If you want to use this as a crystal ball, comparing the peaks we are about 79 days from the next peak. If something like that happens, a run-up can feel free to start any time now, depending on how steep a slope it takes.
Cheers
Thanks for the post. Very interesting. 79 days from today would be February 8th 2015. Now, it could be that we are on a longer cycle this time around...if so - let's multiply 79 days by fib 1.68 and we get a date of April 2 2015.
Yea this is great we can all get some big time btc or some other crypto.
Cuz in btc goes up all alts go up.
Nice graphic and will keep my eye on this.
Well, it's been interesting to watch the price cycle, but just before I post the updated chart to reflect the trends to today, I just wanted to reiterate a few things.
First, I'm not saying this is what will happen. The price will be what it will be. But people spend so much time saying stuff to compare year to year, like 365 days is some magic number, when it really doesn't mean much (well, other than it being an Earth year). Cycles in nature happen all the time, but time periods vary. Risto's 2-year theory makes a lot of sense to me, and I do think if you objectively look at the trends we are more likely on some sort of longer cycle than one year. Is it 670 days? Who knows?
Second, remember this is the speculation subforum. We're always voting on what we think the price will be in a month, a year, 5 years. Speculation is exactly that. I hope nobody takes the chart and bets money on it (I wouldn't, although I would be happy for it to pan out like this!)
Anyways, time will tell what price will do. So many factors involved nobody knows for sure, but let's wait and see.
So, here's the updated chart:
Now some fun
Comparing the plots, we experienced the same slight downturn at the end of the second (just-ended) cycle that we did at the end of the first cycle. All three cycles have begun with a more-or-less sideways trend. I actually thought the rise up about 10 days ago would coincide nicely with when we were "due" for a start to the run-up, but alas, it was not to be.
If you want to use this as a crystal ball, comparing the peaks we are about 79 days from the next peak. If something like that happens, a run-up can feel free to start any time now, depending on how steep a slope it takes.
Cheers
Thanks for the post. Very interesting. 79 days from today would be February 8th 2015. Now, it could be that we are on a longer cycle this time around...if so - let's multiply 79 days by fib 1.68 and we get a date of April 2 2015.
Very interesting.
Marking post for future reference.
Given how the price hasn't been falling really hard but more of a back and forth in the recent months/weeks I'd say we are in a stabilizing phase which will slowly but surely end on the upside in the next 80-120 days.
Thanks for the post. Very interesting. 79 days from today would be February 8th 2015. Now, it could be that we are on a longer cycle this time around...if so - let's multiply 79 days by fib 1.68 and we get a date of April 2 2015.
Yes, cycles will exist but it's unlikely the period of these will be constant. Still interesting though
Well, it's been interesting to watch the price cycle, but just before I post the updated chart to reflect the trends to today, I just wanted to reiterate a few things.
First, I'm not saying this is what will happen. The price will be what it will be. But people spend so much time saying stuff to compare year to year, like 365 days is some magic number, when it really doesn't mean much (well, other than it being an Earth year). Cycles in nature happen all the time, but time periods vary. Risto's 2-year theory makes a lot of sense to me, and I do think if you objectively look at the trends we are more likely on some sort of longer cycle than one year. Is it 670 days? Who knows?
Second, remember this is the speculation subforum. We're always voting on what we think the price will be in a month, a year, 5 years. Speculation is exactly that. I hope nobody takes the chart and bets money on it (I wouldn't, although I would be happy for it to pan out like this!)
Anyways, time will tell what price will do. So many factors involved nobody knows for sure, but let's wait and see.
So, here's the updated chart:
Now some fun
Comparing the plots, we experienced the same slight downturn at the end of the second (just-ended) cycle that we did at the end of the first cycle. All three cycles have begun with a more-or-less sideways trend. I actually thought the rise up about 10 days ago would coincide nicely with when we were "due" for a start to the run-up, but alas, it was not to be.
If you want to use this as a crystal ball, comparing the peaks we are about 79 days from the next peak. If something like that happens, a run-up can feel free to start any time now, depending on how steep a slope it takes.
Cheers
Thanks for the post. Very interesting. 79 days from today would be February 8th 2015. Now, it could be that we are on a longer cycle this time around...if so - let's multiply 79 days by fib 1.68 and we get a date of April 2 2015.
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