Topic: Presenting the 670-day Bitcoin price cycle - page 2. (Read 7955 times)

Well, it's been interesting to watch the price cycle, but just before I post the updated chart to reflect the trends to today, I just wanted to reiterate a few things.

First, I'm not saying this is what will happen.  The price will be what it will be.  But people spend so much time saying stuff to compare year to year, like 365 days is some magic number, when it really doesn't mean much (well, other than it being an Earth year).  Cycles in nature happen all the time, but time periods vary.  Risto's 2-year theory makes a lot of sense to me, and I do think if you objectively look at the trends we are more likely on some sort of longer cycle than one year.  Is it 670 days?  Who knows?

Second, remember this is the speculation subforum. We're always voting on what we think the price will be in a month, a year, 5 years.  Speculation is exactly that.  I hope nobody takes the chart and bets money on it (I wouldn't, although I would be happy for it to pan out like this!)

Anyways, time will tell what price will do.  So many factors involved nobody knows for sure, but let's wait and see.

So, here's the updated chart:



Now some fun 

Comparing the plots, we experienced the same slight downturn at the end of the second (just-ended) cycle that we did at the end of the first cycle.  All three cycles have begun with a more-or-less sideways trend.  I actually thought the rise up about 10 days ago would coincide nicely with when we were "due" for a start to the run-up, but alas, it was not to be.

If you want to use this as a crystal ball, comparing the peaks we are about 79 days from the next peak.  If something like that happens, a run-up can feel free to start any time now, depending on how steep a slope it takes. 


Cheers

If OP is right. Bubble is about to start from here.

Hacknoid,

Could you extrapolate the graph till current date. Interesting where we are in the cycle now. 

You could be on to something there, lets wait and see, but it does look like it has potential.

Who cares if the price moves to fit the chart because the people are buying expecting a chart fulfilled prophecy or if there really is a natural cycle set that would have occurred without people knowing the charts. Either way, things move in cycles in nature all the time, and sometimes the cycle looks too easy to fit because it fits. Sometimes things change when you observe them:p

That red circle on the blue line is in 2012 and $2 happened in 2011.

We get the confirmation!



The small dip in the end of blue line correspond to current dip and happened exactly 670 days ago



And this 670-day period is good fit with risto's "2-year pregnancy" theory.

Nah, the pictures made the post!  And FWIW, it *is* spookily similar   Now we just have to wait 2 more years to see if the prediction is borne out!

It is very difficult to attempt to predict the future. There are many people that try this (financial analysts) and they only make very broad predictions, but they do not have a very good track record. It is very unlikely that you will be able to make these long term of predictions with any level of accuracy. 

Keep trying to predict and try to see patterns. If the future shows you you're wrong often enough you'll learn to deal with overconfidence in being able to spot patterns any human possesses.

But it's fun trying to predict the future!   

And who says we aren't actively doing something to promote adoption?  I chat it up every chance I get (with merchants and everyone else), and have more than a few projects in the works.  One does not preclude the other.

Relax, and have fun with it. 

You all should stick to helping bitcoin adoption not only waiting for next bubble, or triying to predict it.

This is how it goes every time. Once the train gets going it gets more and more expensive to jump on. We are still refueling and doing engine maintenance IMO. Once we actually leave the station price will be around $800.

Cool graph

As long as everyone takes this for what it is: a nice idea which needs further confirmation.

Well see continued stability until dumbasses outside the BTC choo choo train realize they are late as big players jump in.

Nice graph.

All to say is this from start of this 2014 year, to many big companies are involved in BTC story that can implement market price to change.

Think that end of this year and first quarter of next will balance place in long term.

2 cycles cant be a trend. you need to make at least 3.
so use year
2010&2011
2012&2013
2014&and just predict the year 2015 then.

Come on off to work!

Hey - no worries!  As I say - nobody really knows the future, and there certainly isn't enough information to draw any conclusions (and then there's the caveat that always applies - past results are not indicative of future performance).  I admit it's just an interesting pattern, and it just shows that maybe it's not a 33-week cycle that everyone is expecting.

But hey, cut him some slack! People are always looking for patterns in the bitcoin charts. But this is a very well crafted example of it!

Correlates well, yes.. But with just so small amount of data it's quite easy to find matching charts.

All I was trying to say is that people are so focused on charts and what not for bubbles to appear, that they probably won't appear because of that.

That a new one will appear no doubt about it, but expecting it to happen x number of days in between, that's just silly.