I hear traders say price action is the best form of predicting the future trend of the market. Most traders claim it takes adcantage of previous events that has happened in the past to accurate decide the movement of the new trend. Although it is not traded in isolation because other strategy like candle stick pattern and area of value needs to considered before placing an entry.
Could past event decide how the market would move?
With the innovations and change in societal norms, climatic and environmental factors putting all this into considerations is there any certainty that past trends would repeat itself or is this just an assumption?
As a new trader I have been exposed to several knowledge about how to study and analyze market present and future trends but am only asking for clearity. Does market obey all this rules laid down by trading experts to help time their entries or could this be an advanced gambling that has a prepared strategy which is not 100% guarantee for profit taking?
I know many people who understand how the market works make profit from their predictions but I still want to understand if it was by chance or does the market really obey price action and is it truly the best strategy in timing entries.
To begin with you need to accept one thing, if you are going to become a trader then you need to understand that there is no way you are going to predict the market 100% of the time, think of it as the weather forecast, most of the time you will see they will be off in terms of the minor details but a reasonable good trader will see the long term trends way ahead of time similar to how now we can forecast hurricanes including their strength and route.
One perfect example of this is the halving that takes place every 4 years on bitcoin, we know that after each halving the supply of bitcoin goes down in exchanges as miners get half of the coins they got on the past, this decreases the supply and if the demand remains static then the price goes up, this creates expectations the price will go up even more increasing the demand and with it its price, movements like that happen all the time and can be easily predicted by someone that takes the time to watch the markets, however be warned, making money by trading is incredibly difficult and I recommend newbies to not do it and instead hold their coins, but if you are decided to do it at least take a few months to learn the ropes before you trade with real money in the markets.