Topic: price action trading - page 4. (Read 779 times)

Many think that the way the market moves may be with repetitions that have already occurred in the past, this refers clearly to chart figures, which is not bad, but based on the textbook of "A Random Walk on the Wall. Street "by Malkiel Burton, in an experiment it was deduced that the chartists had a very high error rate, like the market when doing a fundamental analysis, in this case I think that not all patterns should be repeated.

In the case of Bitcoin, they are not the same conditions now as in 2017, at that time there was not much talk about Bitcoin as now, nor were we in a pandemic, these facts totally change the way the market moves, which can be deduced is that the market is still moved by the emotions of the people and by the action of the whales.

Price actions are based on its history and Its true that the market follows the price actions so technically, reading the chart based on its history can help you on your trading journey. We do make money by analyzing, and not just by any hype or fud, price action trend are more reliable compare to any indicators, so better to focus on this one and just used indicators to fill the blanks on your analysis.

the problem of novice traders is that they may not understand the code of the chart increase or the code of the price signal when trading, this is the importance of understanding the code when trading. Beginner traders are still confused about this, so they can't sell fast or hold.

There were chances that the market has been repeating what it did in the past and that's why there were analysis that includes the past. The patterns that we had in the past, they're using it and comparing it with today's market and price action.
In top of this, the trader has to look on which strategy and style he's good with upon reading the market. Wherever he is confident and making himself profit more, he should use whatever benefits him/her.

The answer to your question is definitely YES about if the DNA or the past event of the price action can determine the future price. every candlesticks have background and stories contanining emotion of different investors and traders. I just wanted to clarify that here in trading, there are no 100% secured profit because we are talking about probabilities here in trading and it is a game of convictions not just luck.

I know that many traders already read this phrase "price action is still the king". If you are a trader then it is better if you will understand what is happening to the price. Knowing the trend, finding the support and resistances and also knowing what kind if trading setup are you going to use. Risk management is also important because you cannot compound your trading capital if you do not have any risk management.

Patterns create our life, we may like it or not, we may break them sometimes but if you look at most of the humans on earth they have a pattern all their lives as well. You wake up, you go to work, you come home, you do something you like and you sleep and you do that like for 40 years of your life.

Similar during school as well, just replace work with school and that's it. We as humans are programmed to have a pattern, all of our life is patterned, even our "having fun" periods daily are patterned, if you are a gamer you game, if you want you can watch netflix, but it is almost always the same.

This is why I think it is quite obvious that when we are trading, we do the same things as well, because we are so patterned in every facet of our life that when it comes to trading we do have a pattern as well, we do the same thing over and over again creating a routine for us.

It's not about being right 100% of the time, but to gain an edge in the market, it's a game of statistically winning more when being right, then losing when being wrong. If I'm risking 1$ to make 2$ (1:2 Risk-to-Reward) if I'm winning and I'm winning 50% of my trades, I do make money.  There is no strategy which is winning 100% of the time.


Price Action (the way I trade it) is not about understanding the market, but to follow the story of the market is telling who is currently in control of price: buyers or sellers?  I'm I right 100% of the time? Hell no! But I'm winning more when I'm right than I lose when I'm wrong.

For example: given the market is in an overall uptrend in timeframe H4 but it's currently correcting. Now the correction arrives at a resistance zone and the candlesticks tell the story, that price is halting. What does that tell me?  Well, it tells me, that sellers are losing strength and buyers could take over the control and the uptrend could continue. If I now see a strong sign for a possible reversal (such as bullish pinbar, engulfing, …), I'd open a long position.

All the technical tools work (sometimes more, sometimes less) in the market as enough market participants believe they work.  But be warned: market behavior changes and it's up to the trader to anticipate when that happens and adapt their strategy to the changed environment.

Technically, most of the movements in the market are because of the repeating actions by people. We are all attracted to routine acts, and that's basically what we are here to do. In continuous aspects of life, that's how humans have dealt and survived.

To be honest, no one knows how to deal and predict the market, it should be understood, and most of the time, people will not be correct with predicting. It's better to be investing in what the asset is than speculating unless you are using a bot to do it for you.

I don't think trading is that easy to determine price by just one single event. It depends if it is working at such point and with combinations of some factors but it is not certain to happen that one factor can determine price and you just predict not sure with how it can go.

Past events (2018) could not affect the present anymore.
But many traders does still use it just for information like how a crypto behaved before.
But applying it might not be relevant anymore.

Consider the events, disaster, pandemic, news and social media hypes.
One big change that happened was Covid-19. Many people lost their jobs and trying to look for another approach on how to make money.
Trading is one of that. Looking at how lively the market is, proves there are a lot of traders now that may shake the trading industry.

Yes, price action is very important, it is how you will identify the current trend of the market, like short-term bearish or bullish.

I also know some traders who don't trade against the trend, like if the price action of particular trading pair is bullish in short term, they don't trade against it in short term.

Yes, a past event or history on the chart is one of the best to use for identifying the next move of the market, just like the famous technical analysis; Support & Resistance, which this analysis needs past price history.

Its not by chance the market really obey the price action, though it sometimes it becomes more volatile, you can still see the chart playing within the price trend and if you do make your own analysis, you can make money on this one.

Not all crypto trading are decentralized since we have a centralized exchange and yes, politics and government can affect the market especially if they create a good/bad news. Though this market can't manipulate this market, they can still influence people and force people not to use cryptocurrency, this is already happening in many countries.

The crypto industrial revolution is much faster than before, then massive aggression hits the market once every minute. even the surge in 2021 has proven that climate change for crypto will be very unpredictable. Even analysts feel overwhelmed by the theories they have been building and applying. especially during the pandemic people began to look to cryptocurrency trading, and this resulted in large adoptions to save their assets from inflation in banknotes. as money minted in every country, accompanied by an increasing immigration of real estate traders to the crypto space. So far to say that something similar will repeat itself is simply irrelevant.

Since crypto trading is done on a decentralized market economy. Can one really say for sure that  societal activities like politics and other government related news affect the market?. If the market has a mind of its own then it shouldn't be affected by centralized factors been manipulated by government authorities.

Just how broad the trading industry is?
When you think about the different timelines in different countries, you can't expect everything will go the way you want it.
But, follow the leader comes into handy.

Assuming someone big (a company, group) loves to sell their tokens on Saturdays and rest on Sundays.
It may create a wave and someone will follow it adding more to that movement that happens on the same day.
The trend becomes a habit and we can all see it right now. No one goes against that flow.
It may not be a daily profit but still a weekly chance for a better amount.
I apologize if I can't explain it in a more clear way.

The market does not move on any rules "laid" by someone. It has a mind of its own but it can be predicted to a large extent.

Now news and politics make a move on the market but please dont bring climate and environment in the discussion because then it becomes another conspiracy theory discussion leading to a retarded circle-jerk.

Say a government banned crypto in a large country, market price will fall but will catch up soon too in a couple of days. It would be correct at that time to buy some and sell it on the rise later.

Again negative news tends to move the market a lot more than positive news. The only recent positive news that grew the market organically was paypal allowing crypto and consequent private firms investing in it.

Past event? They can help you predict how the market might react but not decide how it will move. Use the charts to your advantage: Learn the support and resistance levels from them and use that information to set your buying and selling points.

This will totally depends on what those events are like for example, the halving event does happen every four years and could be used as a perfect example since it does have its effect on the market both prior and after the event has occurred. Most past events in the space does have a way of always repeating it self, it might not be exactly as the same as last time but the similarities will be very obvious.

We had ICO trend few years ago that was a success and then the last couple of months, Defi and NFT has been making waves. These trend were all treated the same (that's anticipated to be successful) due to the success of ICO, many invested in the new trend with the hope of profiting solely because they believe the trends will give similar outcome as the earlier trends which many did gain massively.

Actually for me making a comparison through the graph history of the coin , such the previous vs the current situation, really can give us a little clue what will be the next movement in the graph . But not totally the specific direction,, wherein just a sign.. and the percentage itself in the market can tell the directions..  And you know it's up to us how to take advantage on it. Indeed we have just two options when it comes trading.. Such HODL and gaining quick profits.. So in my opinion it depends on us how to ride the waves nowadays.. And lastly if you're really tired studying the grap of your coin. Then move on mate and look for much better im the market.. Infact there's a lt of good coins,, so don't just stick to one.. Wherein jump sometimes if its really necessary and truly worth it to spend efforts..

A good trader won't see he can predict the market precisely. His mind changes with the chart movements. If you know a trader whom tells you that he trades based on predictions and totally believe that the market will move in one direction. He does not have any plans if price moves oppositely. Please wipe out his advice. He is a bad trader.

Past events are what you look back and try to learn from. The market moves for now and for the future with many things affect it: news, governments, laws, adoption, hacks, etc.

Apply the rule "Buy the rumor, sell the news". You don't need to know too much about Technical analysis to do so. Fundemantal analysis is enough to help you and it strongly helpful to filter bad projects. Signals of the market are not only shown on the chart but also on the news that you can read everyday.

I hear traders say price action is the best form of predicting the future trend of the market. Most traders claim it takes adcantage of previous events that has happened in the past to accurate decide the movement of the new trend. Although it is not traded in isolation because other strategy like candle stick pattern and area of value needs to considered before placing an entry.

Could past event decide how the market would move?
With the innovations and change in societal norms, climatic and environmental factors putting all this into considerations is there any certainty that past trends would repeat itself or is this just an assumption?

As a new trader I have been exposed to several knowledge about how to study and analyze market present and future trends but am only asking for clearity. Does market obey all this rules laid down by trading experts to help time their entries or could this be an advanced gambling that has a prepared strategy which is not 100% guarantee for profit taking?

I know many people who understand how the market works make profit from their predictions but I still want to understand if it was by chance or does the market really obey price action and is it truly the best strategy in timing entries.