Topic: Price perspective (Read 1552 times)

Here's some healthy price perspective for you...

Approximate time BTC price has been between:

     0-$1000: 8 years
$1000-2000: 5 months
$2000-3000: 11 weeks
$3000-4000: 26 days (or only 16 days leading up to Sept 1 ATH, pre-"China FUD")
$4000-5000: 37 days

Talk about an exponential time series... Personally, I think Bitcoin owes $3xxx at least another month or two before waving goodbye forever.

Edit: quoting my post below:

Doubling times might be another way to look at it...

Approximate time to "permanently" double:

from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)

Edit: quoting my plot below:

The last 10 floor to floor Bitcoin doublings since Nov 2012, now in more precise graphical form on a log-linear plot using Bitstamp pricing. I arbitrarily chose base 5 because it fits this plot well. Base 2 would have the same number of doublings.

Average doubling time: 6 months
Shortest doubling time: 1 month ($20 to $40)
Longest doubling time: 18 months ($80 to $160)

The Mt Gox bubble is clearly disruptive to trend. Since recovery, doubling times have only accelerated. This kind of hyperbolic growth is typical of a technological singularity. Think color tv, mobile phones, or the Internet.

At this scale, it's really hard to see the recent hardfork and China FUD having much of an impact at all.

https://i.imgur.com/8CW7IQQ.png

The price of bitcoin might not push over seven thousand dollars this month but by next month it might give me a profit of over $7000 after the fork with the split in the network and the two alternative coins might give me a profit above that per coin,lets see how the market reacts after the split and i hope everything ends well.

I don't know but i think their are no miners for btcgold?

The price of bitcoin might not push over seven thousand dollars this month but by next month it might give me a profit of over $7000 after the fork with the split in the network and the two alternative coins might give me a profit above that per coin,lets see how the market reacts after the split and i hope everything ends well.

Nice with the words right there and you are predicting that bitcoin will be bye bye after only two months? where is your proof saying such FUD on this forum, you yourself are talking about the price of bitcoin on the many years right now and you are thinking that bitcoin's going to end that way? well I will tell you that bitcoin's price on the upcoming 3 years will be $100,000 mark value and nothing can stop it, but the fake news that have been rising recently have ruining the bitcoin's value and as of now the value is at $3600 and resisting to go up for now.

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

Let's project.

Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.

Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020

To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022

And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:

Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027

Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.

Why not? 3k was never meant to be touched but it was all a shift of money through Chinese investors which made all this occur.
But as the saying goes, after a storm comes a calm and so, other countries managed to deprive their effect by continuously buying back cheap coins they knew that won't be there for long. It was a delightful treat to those who bought at those prices because I feel this won't be coming now and till forever.

I think the next real level to watch out will be $10k. Now we don't really remember the movement from $300 to $400. Soon all these short term pull backs won't matter.

Goodbye $3xxx?? Not even Oct yet.

OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information.  This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves.  And they most often do not.

Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors.  None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts.  None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet.  That tells me that TA doesn't work.  So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.

No, I was thinking after another couple months hovering in the $3xxxs, that it will rise and never fall below $4000 again. A new floor. I agree that a mini bear market might be forthcoming, but I don't think we'll fall too much below $4000, not with Wall Street and more countries gearing up involvement into 2018.  I certainly don't think we'll ever fall below $2000 again and $3000 might be a stretch too.

So if i interpreted the OP correctly you are saying that bitcoin will never return to the $3000 level once it falls back to something like $1.5k-$2.5k? I don't think this is likely, as bitcoin prices usually at LEAST triple over a 4 year period(at around halving time).

In between these halvings are usually bear markets which i think is well possible after this year. We could potentially see further dumps that drive price below $3k, but not this year imo.

Short term we might see some more gains, medium term 1-2 years we may turn bearish for a bit but long term we should still be going up.

it is good calculation but the price is not to easy to be predicted as we are know that bitcoin price is changing every time. but at least we can know the increasing bitcoin price from time to time. we need more time to see the price is increase but yes we are on the way to go that price. I think its better if we do the best we can to collect more bitcoin so when the price is increase, we have our bitcoin ready to sell and help us to make profit.