Topic: Price perspective - page 2. (Read 1569 times)
it is good calculation but the price is not to easy to be predicted as we are know that bitcoin price is changing every time. but at least we can know the increasing bitcoin price from time to time. we need more time to see the price is increase but yes we are on the way to go that price. I think its better if we do the best we can to collect more bitcoin so when the price is increase, we have our bitcoin ready to sell and help us to make profit.
As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.
i disagree.
because first of all bitcoin should be affected less and less by government as it grows bigger. and so far these "set backs" have not been caused by the government at all. each and every one of them has been because of how the market itself and all the weak hands in it have reacted to some dumb news (FUD).
for example earlier this year when price broke $1200 resistance a new FUD started about BU breaking bitcoin and splitting it and killing it, ... blah blah! and price tanked hard to $890ish. and there are lots more of these. are you calling them "government effect?
but as the market grows bigger, the resistances also become bigger. less weak hands or at least they will be smaller percentage of the market so their idiotic panic won't cause big dips.
As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.
i disagree.
because first of all bitcoin should be affected less and less by government as it grows bigger. and so far these "set backs" have not been caused by the government at all. each and every one of them has been because of how the market itself and all the weak hands in it have reacted to some dumb news (FUD).
for example earlier this year when price broke $1200 resistance a new FUD started about BU breaking bitcoin and splitting it and killing it, ... blah blah! and price tanked hard to $890ish. and there are lots more of these. are you calling them "government effect?
but as the market grows bigger, the resistances also become bigger. less weak hands or at least they will be smaller percentage of the market so their idiotic panic won't cause big dips.
It is not that easy to predict the price and the speculation is only based on one factors there are a lot of factors can determine the price, and there are also the chances the price is dropping, but it is a good information for all of us
I prefer to see the price condition by current situation not based on some past information, because for now the situation is very different
I prefer to see the price condition by current situation not based on some past information, because for now the situation is very different
As bitcoin grows bigger, there will be more setbacks caused by governments and such so I don't expect it to gain value at the same rate.
This would really help a lot newbies that are only starting in learning the history of bitcoin and I think this will make a motivation for certain people that the value has jump to a certain increase if they would see how much the price had rise I think many would be interested with bitcoin but I think bitcoin will never gonna go out anytime soon.
OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information. This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves. And they most often do not.
Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors. None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts. None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet. That tells me that TA doesn't work. So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.
Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors. None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts. None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet. That tells me that TA doesn't work. So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.
I completely agree with short term TA.
But long term trends tend to be immune to short term shocks to the system. Even Warren Buffet advises HODLing index funds, because over the long term, the market has always gone up. He recently won nearly $2 million betting on this long term trend:
https://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/2017/09/18/warren-buffett-won-2-million-from-a-bet-that-he-made-ten-years-ago.html
Zoom the S&P 500 out from 1977 to today and apply a several year moving average, and you will see a line that does not dip, even with war, disasters, and systemic asshole bankers. The thesis and trend of the overall market remains intact, thus far. And betting on this has most definitely made Warren Buffett rich.
Do this with Bitcoin prices since inception on a logarithmic plot and you will see a very similar long term trend. Assuming the fundamental Bitcoin thesis holds true, this long term trend should, hopefully, continue, FUD and all, no TA required.
OP, I know where you're coming from, but all of these price projections are based on past information. This is the whole reason why I don't subscribe to technical analysis--you're looking at past price movements and hoping(!) that patterns repeat themselves. And they most often do not.
Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors. None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts. None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet. That tells me that TA doesn't work. So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.
Look at the list of all the richest stock market investors. None of them got their billions of dollars by looking at charts. None of them are technical analysts--they usually employ fundamental analysis, like Warren Buffet. That tells me that TA doesn't work. So we can hope bitcoin is headed to $10,000 or more, and it might be, but you can't tell from those charts.
I'm guiding myself with this table here:
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
Nice, so looking at the last Min predictions only, they put the $5000 doubling at 8 mos in March 2018, and the $10,000 doubling 12 months later in May 2019. Close to the 1 year projection times I posted above.
0-$1000: 8 years
This took closer to 4 years than 8 years.Bitcoin was activated January 2009. The last time it was $1000 on Bitstamp was March 27 of this year. Eight years and three months.
I don't consider ATHs because they are far too unstable. Willy's Mt Gox manipulation gave us our first $1000 ATH, which lasted for what, all of 10 days? It took until March 27 of this year for $1000 to finally establish a floor.
I'm not interested in transient doublings but "permanent" ones. I say "permanent" because I'm assuming (hoping, praying) it will never drop down to $1000 again.
I suppose for traders, ATH doublings might hold some significance. But for long time HODLers, it's the "permanent" doublings that really matter.
i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!
first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.
first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.
I'm not interested in the first time we hit $2500 (the ceiling), but the last time (the floor), providing a much more robust estimate of true doubling time. On Bitstamp this was July 26. Today is Sept 24. My 2 month estimate was off by 2 days.
Quote
$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".
The last time it was $1000 was March 27 and $2500 was July 26. So my 4 month estimate is off by only one day.
Cut a brother some slack?
The speed of bitcoin's price growing is rising in arifmetic progression 
so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!
so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!I think after this whole China news went down, the growth factor of Bitcoin will slow down. I think by the end of this year, we may be able to see BTC at 5000. After that, there might be a drop due to people selling at 5k and the lack of explosive growth.
So according to your word we can still expect higher prices from bitcoin and other coins. This will be eventually and this will make us stressful probably. If we can survive, the bright is future.
I'm guiding myself with this table here:
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
Nice forecast, i wish it to be 10k till end of 2018.https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
Does they have background for the forecasts?
The speed of bitcoin's price growing is rising in arifmetic progression so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal!
so I think after the period of drop and dark news from China bitcoin will come back firstly at 4000$ and fast at 5000$. I suppose to see 6000-7000$ this year already, cause of the speed of bitcoins spreading over the world and it's price growing is just a phenomenal! 
0-$1000: 8 years
This took closer to 4 years than 8 years.the adoption is like this and we are still in the "early adopters" stage which is pretty slow. and it will get faster soon and becomes vertical (with it price will be the same) until the mass adoption and then it plateaus.
Based on this graph, one could argue we're all Innovators! Less than 2.5% of the population uses Bitcoin. I have very high hopes for Bitcoin once SegWit is used a lot more, especially when the Lighting Network becomes main stream. As far as I understand it right now LN would mean I can create a "small expenses wallet" on LN, and put the equivalent of $100 in there. I can then use LN to send and receive small amounts (buy 2 coffee, sell one to a colleague). All off this off-chain with near instant confirmations and very low fees. That would allow Bitcoin to go mainstream. Faucets could instantly pay small amounts again too.Meanwhile, large transactions would remain on-chain. If my LN-wallet gets loaded, I can transfer some to any other wallet again.
So far for my future dreams. Back to this graph: note the S-shape that's common for market penetration. Exponential growth can't be sustained forever, at some point it will have to slow down.
All in all I see a bright future for Bitcoin. But do yourself a favour: don't compare a linear thing (time) with an exponential thing (price) without using a logarithmic scale.
I'm guiding myself with this table here:
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
https://longforecast.com/bitcoin-price-predictions-2017-2018-2019-btc-to-usd
i have not checked all your prices and their durations but i am skeptical because you have mistakes. for example how are you saying from $2500 to $5000 was "not yet 2 months"!
first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.
$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".
first time bitcoin price reached $2500 it was 2017-5-24 which is exactly 4 months ago.
$1000 was also reached on 2017-1-1 which makes it nearly 6 months (7 days short) to $2500 but you said "4 months".
Let's project.
Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.
Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020
To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022
And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027
Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.
Average "permanent" doubling time over the last 5 years is just over 6 months. This includes a 2 year doubling from $100 to $250 in 2013 to 2015.
Price has remained above $2500 since: July 2017 (May still be tested.)
Will remain above $5000: Jan 2018
$10,000: July 2018
$20,000: Jan 2019
$40,000: July 2019
$80,000: Jan 2020
To be conservative, if average doubling time doubles to 1 year instead (which seems silly considering the doubling trend has been halving the last couple years), then:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2018
$10,000: July 2019
$20,000: July 2020
$40,000: July 2021
$80,000: July 2022
And if we project the longest doubling time of 2 years henceforth:
Price will remain above $5000: July 2019
$10,000: July 2021
$20,000: July 2023
$40,000: July 2025
$80,000: July 2027
Frankly, I'd be happy with any of these scenarios.
Doubling times might be another way to look at it...
Approximate time to "permanently" double:
from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)
Approximate time to "permanently" double:
from $5 to last time it ever dipped below $10: 7 months
$10 to $25: 4 months
$25 to $50: 2 months
$50 to $100: 6 months
$100 to $250: 2 years (!)
$250 to $500: 10 months
$500 to $1000: 8 months
$1000 to $2500: 4 months
$2500 to $5000: (not yet: 2 months and counting...)
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