finally I added a 90days chart
Am I blind because I am not seeing it?
hehe, there was a glitch should be there now
Topic: Price vs Difficulty Charts - indicators for buying or mining - page 2. (Read 81503 times)
February 02, 2012, 11:28:33 AM
Am I blind because I am not seeing it?
hehe, there was a glitch should be there now
February 02, 2012, 11:16:50 AM
finally I added a 90days chart
Am I blind because I am not seeing it?
February 02, 2012, 11:13:47 AM
CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS!
No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
a) this is for historical reasons (charts from Raoul) No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
Maybe I will change it some time next year.b) logarithmic chart does not help?
you can get difficulty data from blockexplorer... make the intervall 2016 and you will get data for each difficulty change
finally I added a 90days chart
CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS!
No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
Is something like this what you are looking for?No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
http://btcserv.net/bitcoin/history/
December 31, 2011, 12:26:16 PM
CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS!
No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
a) this is for historical reasons (charts from Raoul) No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
Maybe I will change it some time next year.b) logarithmic chart does not help?
you can get difficulty data from blockexplorer... make the intervall 2016 and you will get data for each difficulty change
December 27, 2011, 08:46:17 AM
CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS! CHARTS!
No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
No seriously I find the price/difficulty charts to be very interesting. I like bitcoinx charts bu
a) would love to see units based on 1 GH. 100MH seems so arbitrary. yeah any number is arbitrary but it would be like getting gas mileage in 1/10th of a gallon . Yeah my car rocks it gets 200 mpthg (miles per tenth of a gallon)
b) There is only a 30 day chart (which shows too little) and a all time chart (which due to the insane peaks washes out any detail in the last 6 months or so.
If anyone knows where I can easily acquire the difficulty by day data (or date of prior 20 difficulty changes) I will make some more charts.
December 23, 2011, 12:39:48 PM
Update chart now? want to see that curve up:P thx
Same here, things are getting interesting
I would love to see some updated charts or data. Links? Peace
Since you asked.
Continuously setting new lows for the ratio. Difficulty doesn't seem to be "supporting" price, in the sense of propping it up or providing a floor. But the network's resilience to a plummeting price is quite surprising. Its the power of peer-to-peer and decentralization.
Maybe there's still a correlation. Perhaps price "hangs" from difficulty - like a bungee cord or a rubber band. A strong difficulty could launch the price like a slingshot, if that's the case.
Thanks! Nice charts.
Any thoughts when the average miner will start losing money on their mining rig?
BRILLIANT!!!!
Put a new donation address on that page so I may send you my two cents...
Put a new donation address on that page so I may send you my two cents...
With the sell off and the difficulty increase, the ratio has significantly dropped to .61
yeah 100MH/s is comfy to estimate earnings per day
i guess the "resistance point" will decrease in the long run, ~~~ by moores law.
i guess the "resistance point" will decrease in the long run, ~~~ by moores law.
The 100Mhash come from that being a decent lowest comment to reach all sorts of mining speeds 
So people cna find out how much they can earn for a given fiat money investment.
So people cna find out how much they can earn for a given fiat money investment.
The 100,000 is arbitrary, but it aligns the price and difficulty nicely. I don't consider 1/1 to be a natural ratio, but historically it has held. Honestly, I'd suspect the resistance point to be closer to where we are now: .8.
full disclosure: I have been working on similiar graphs for a while now and will release them soon. I had not seen this page before.
instead of the difficulty/price ratio I prefer the mining profit per 100MHash/s as proposed a long time ago by Raolo.
instead of the difficulty/price ratio I prefer the mining profit per 100MHash/s as proposed a long time ago by Raolo.
It is the same concept, since profit would be defined as price * reward. The reward part is constant until 2012, so it will not change the graph until 2012. I do plan to update the formula by then - kinda a low priority since I have a year
I'm not sure where 100MH/s comes from, and seems arbitrary. I already divide the difficulty by 100,000 to align it with the price, but 100,000,000 would undo that alignment. Right now, $15.00 / 1,500,000 difficulty results in a 1/1 ratio, which is very convenient.
100MH/s is really arbitrary. I would prefer 1000MH/s better as it goes better with the metric system but also I am used to the mining factor based on 100MH/s as others may be.
Is the 100,000 less arbitrary? Probably there is no natural ratio...
full disclosure: I have been working on similiar graphs for a while now and will release them soon. I had not seen this page before.
instead of the difficulty/price ratio I prefer the mining profit per 100MHash/s as proposed a long time ago by Raolo.
instead of the difficulty/price ratio I prefer the mining profit per 100MHash/s as proposed a long time ago by Raolo.
It is the same concept, since profit would be defined as price * reward. The reward part is constant until 2012, so it will not change the graph until 2012. I do plan to update the formula by then - kinda a low priority since I have a year
I'm not sure where 100MH/s comes from, and seems arbitrary. I already divide the difficulty by 100,000 to align it with the price, but 100,000,000 would undo that alignment. Right now, $15.00 / 1,500,000 difficulty results in a 1/1 ratio, which is very convenient.
Also, I made my chart publicly available for the time being. It updates itself automatically once per day. I'll keep it public as long as I don't see a massive rise in my cpu usage on my server:
[...]
Edit: Please don't hotlink the image directly, it'll result in me taking it down. If you want to display it somewhere, please save the image and host it elsewhere. You are free to do whatever you want with it, I'm not big on copyrights, just don't eat my server
[...]
Edit: Please don't hotlink the image directly, it'll result in me taking it down. If you want to display it somewhere, please save the image and host it elsewhere. You are free to do whatever you want with it, I'm not big on copyrights, just don't eat my server
full disclosure: I have been working on similiar graphs for a while now and will release them soon. I had not seen this page before.
instead of the difficulty/price ratio I prefer the mining profit per 100MHash/s as proposed a long time ago by Raolo.
It seems a big factor in the future price is whether miners decide to mine at a loss (sell at market), stop mining, or hold out for more money.
My prediction is that "hold out" will be the dominant choice. Why? Because mining and selling at a loss has no apparent justification; losing money is not desirable and it is not clear that mining at a loss is a sustainable model for the bitcoin project in the long term. "Stop mining" does not help the project and has no potential profit (but is risk free). "Holding out" keeps the rigs running and the community strong and has potential for profit in the future (but has risk). I suspect miners are more likely to support the project and take the risk for future profit, rather than a guaranteed zero profit or guaranteed loss. (Or they turn into buyers - same difference)
On the other hand, if demand drops a cliff, all bets are off. You can hold out all you like, but if nobody is buying, it will not raise the price.
It will be really interesting to see how it plays out. There is enough novelty in this project for dozens of Phd theses.
My prediction is that "hold out" will be the dominant choice. Why? Because mining and selling at a loss has no apparent justification; losing money is not desirable and it is not clear that mining at a loss is a sustainable model for the bitcoin project in the long term. "Stop mining" does not help the project and has no potential profit (but is risk free). "Holding out" keeps the rigs running and the community strong and has potential for profit in the future (but has risk). I suspect miners are more likely to support the project and take the risk for future profit, rather than a guaranteed zero profit or guaranteed loss. (Or they turn into buyers - same difference)
On the other hand, if demand drops a cliff, all bets are off. You can hold out all you like, but if nobody is buying, it will not raise the price.
It will be really interesting to see how it plays out. There is enough novelty in this project for dozens of Phd theses.
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