Pages:
Author

Topic: Price will not crash if the ETF is rejected (Read 2529 times)

sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 250
March 08, 2017, 07:04:39 AM
#46
One of Bitcoin's Big Funds is Selling Ahead of the ETF Decision

We're actually seeing the pre-decision pre-dump - $100 in about 24 hours. I think that's a (still very timid) "preview" of what can come after a final negative decision.

Some sources say the decision will come before Friday. So get ready for the rollercoaster in every moment ... The BitMEX traders say actually it's ~50/50 (but as the indicator is distorted because it pays BTC and not USD to the winners, I think it's more kind of ~40/60 or even ~30/70).

I think they will have to buy back at $1250 or higher if they still want to invest in bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
One of Bitcoin's Big Funds is Selling Ahead of the ETF Decision

We're actually seeing the pre-decision pre-dump - $100 in about 24 hours. I think that's a (still very timid) "preview" of what can come after a final negative decision.

Some sources say the decision will come before Friday. So get ready for the rollercoaster in every moment ... The BitMEX traders say actually it's ~50/50 (but as the indicator is distorted because it pays BTC and not USD to the winners, I think it's more kind of ~40/60 or even ~30/70).
full member
Activity: 308
Merit: 100
Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

you are just repeating the same $900 false speculation with other words. and i have to tell you 20% drop is way too big for just an ETF rejection. price needs much more than that to drop that much.
and even if by some miracle some whales dumped it down to lower than $1000 it will jump back up immediately.
If bitcoin price drop max 20%, then it could be $960-$980, less than $1000. I mark your words, but I guess it will drop back below $1000 if ETF get rejected. Current increases trigger by speculation if SEC will approve winklevoss ETF which the price could reach $2000/$3000 in this month.

I have a big amount of BTC stored, in no way I am selling them right now to buy later cheaper. What if the prices increases grammatically and I lose my money?

Thats why you should hold and set your stop loss at the right price. This way you can ride the rocket if the ETF gets approved and make sure you dont lose allot if it doesnt get approved. Also this will make you be able to buy the dip afer.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

you are just repeating the same $900 false speculation with other words. and i have to tell you 20% drop is way too big for just an ETF rejection. price needs much more than that to drop that much.
and even if by some miracle some whales dumped it down to lower than $1000 it will jump back up immediately.
If bitcoin price drop max 20%, then it could be $960-$980, less than $1000. I mark your words, but I guess it will drop back below $1000 if ETF get rejected. Current increases trigger by speculation if SEC will approve winklevoss ETF which the price could reach $2000/$3000 in this month.

I have a big amount of BTC stored, in no way I am selling them right now to buy later cheaper. What if the prices increases grammatically and I lose my money?
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 506
Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

you are just repeating the same $900 false speculation with other words. and i have to tell you 20% drop is way too big for just an ETF rejection. price needs much more than that to drop that much.
and even if by some miracle some whales dumped it down to lower than $1000 it will jump back up immediately.
If bitcoin price drop max 20%, then it could be $960-$980, less than $1000. I mark your words, but I guess it will drop back below $1000 if ETF get rejected. Current increases trigger by speculation if SEC will approve winklevoss ETF which the price could reach $2000/$3000 in this month.
hero member
Activity: 644
Merit: 500
Transact Safer / Chase Better
Many people keep saying that, if an ETF rejects bitcoin the price bitcoin will crash. But I think it won't completely crash there will be a marginal fall in the price. It is one of the most speculative is being propagated at present whether an ETF accepts or rejects, till now the price of bitcoin is not decided by the ETF. But after some time again bitcoin price will bounce back to normal situation.
hero member
Activity: 1456
Merit: 579
HODLing is an art, not just a word...
As we can see, we don't need ETF to fail. Bitcoin will crash and burn just fine without it gettinf approved or denied.

The Chinese are hardforking bitcoin with a huge userbase and better properties. This time there may be no recovery.

haha, kwukduck is like one of those genies in cartoons that tell you to "burn one of my hair so i can appear and talk to you". and for him you have to have a dip so he can appear Smiley
now price went down and kwukduck appeared and started to say the same crap as always like a broken record. this time with another one of his old FUD about China.
legendary
Activity: 1937
Merit: 1001
As we can see, we don't need ETF to fail. Bitcoin will crash and burn just fine without it gettinf approved or denied.

The Chinese are hardforking bitcoin with a huge userbase and better properties. This time there may be no recovery.
hero member
Activity: 882
Merit: 544
I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
I agree with OP that price will not crash even if ETF is rejected after all we all can see that bitcoin is strong nowadays resisting attempted dumps just months and weeks ago especially on new years eve. We have seen bitcoin fall down below sub 1000$ yet it had risen again. I will just hold all the bitcoin I got and decide at the right time to sell it I hope im online at that time though.
copper member
Activity: 2898
Merit: 1465
Clueless!
I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
Agreed, but if it does crash this will be a contributing factor, just like how the drop from the PBOC scare happened


Again imho. (Not that I know zip...at one time I drank the butterfly labs kool-aid). I STILL think if it does NOT get passed at this point in time it will 'expose' 2 things

1) The powers that be really, really hate BTC and the notion of a BTC ETF the last week, after a 3.5 year quest. That would tell me something about coming backlash
    on BTC and cyrpto in particular imho.

2) IF again, it does NOT get passed. Then the folk that turned it down, will really, really have to be nit picky and find lots of ifs/ans/or butts, because last I heard
there are at least 3 groups trying to fix their own brand of ETF for BTC ASAP. Thus, it the twins ETF is turned down this week, the powers that be will have to say WHY
which will allow the 3 late comers to 'adjust' accordingly. Gonna be harder and harder to justify imho. Especially if BTC continues to rise in value and show more
stablity as a  platform.

If nothing else a denial of the ETF (if it happens) will be very eye opening and open some more light on the process in the future...making it less likely the next ETF
attempt to take 3.5 years.

Again ...I've no clue..just how I am approaching this. Also if it does not pass I expect a 25% dump in price ...say around 900 bucks usd with a 2 month recovery to ATH again.

We will see I guess. IF they are gonna kill it ..I wish they'd get on with it...I got 'cheap coin' I need to buy if that is the case Smiley

sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.
Agreed, but if it does crash this will be a contributing factor, just like how the drop from the PBOC scare happened
hero member
Activity: 2618
Merit: 548
DGbet.fun - Crypto Sportsbook
If etf gets rejected sure there will be a crash in the price at least to some extent. It's been justified by bitcoin experts about the reason for the crash. Only the gradual price movement happens once it's result is announced. The second day result too has got importance even if the etf is approved on 11th March.
legendary
Activity: 1638
Merit: 1163
Where is my ring of blades...
The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.

this only shows that you (like many others) don't know what crash means and what it looks like in a market.
not every price drop is a crash. you hear it be called "a crash" by those who don't know it or want to spread some FUD about bitcoin.
these drops are simple and normal in any market. they have many reasons, from simple correction to FUD and panic selling because of some manipulation.
in case of ETF price won't crash, it may however go down a little bit because many like you fall for the FUD and think it will crash because of random news and sell their coins and there is nothing we love more than some cheap coins.
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1004
C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.
In case you didn't notice we have reached ATH while being tangled in all these problem you listed.
We have massive spam attacks on the network, we are in the middle of scaling crisis, bitcoin's tx fees are the highest ever,
major Chinese exchanges aren't fully operational and there is risk of further regulations. Yet, bitcoin reached ATH.
Contradiction?
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
Gold has no intrinsic value. Nobody buys it because it's used in some niche cases. If that was the case, the marketcap would be tiny compared to the current marketcap, which is based on:

1) Network effect
2) Ability to hold money outside of the system
3) Speculation

Just like bitcoin. But bitcoin is even better since it has unique features, like moving money from A to B in ways that are impossible in any other way, that is it intrinsic feature dare I say.

I agree that gold's "intrinsic" value is much smaller than its current price, but it exists and is the base for all the hype around it. In the case of Bitcoin, the intrinsic value is exclusively tied to network effect because the code itself can be freely copied (and has been copied many times as we all know). Altcoins aren't bigger only because they're far away from Bitcoin's network effect size.

Quote
About noobs panic selling or panic buying, that also happens with gold, but since the marketcap is huge, the effect is not that noticeable. Bitcoin will keep growing in marketcap, which means those same panic sells/buys will be less noticeable overtime.

I agree, but we're talking about an event that takes place in a few days, not in a couple of years Tongue

Quote
Bitcoin is undervalued as it is today, so it will keep growing even if no major scaling updates are rolled out, with that im not saying shouldn't and will not come, they will sooner or later (not in BUcoin form tho)

I agree that cryptocurrencies are undervalued, and so is Bitcoin if it conserves its leading role in the cryptocurrency space. But Bitcoin was also undervalued in early 2014 and it got into a bear market for more than a year. So I don't understand why this affirmation is contrary to a short-to-mid-term trend reversal like the one I mentioned here (I've already said that I'm not talking about "Bitcoin's dead" here.)

Quote
Those coins are so fast because nobody uses them. If they had the same amount of transaction volume as bitcoin then guess what would happen.

Valid point, but there are altcoins which do have superior scalability to BTC (e.g. IOTA, Ardor and maybe Byteball but that last one seems pretty centralized to me.). And for the short-to-mid term, if (for example) Dash and Monero manage to capture 50% of Bitcoin's transaction volume (25% each) then none of each will have scalability problems but Bitcoin's leadership already would be under question.

Quote

If you look at the graph, the long-term trend and the very-short-term trend are both going downwards (that means, the Bitcoin dominance tends to go down). The mid-term trend was stable in the last months - in my opinion because Bitcoin's rally has attracted a lot of altcoin speculators' money. But I expect that to change. We can freeze this discussion now because we can't look into the future Wink

I think you misunderpreted my affirmation of a "post-ETF crash" to be long-term bearish, but I'm talking only about the short term and what could happen on March 11/13. And I don't see sub-500 (and maybe not even sub-700) prices - at least if the Segwit/scaling stalemate doesn't continue for much longer.
legendary
Activity: 1204
Merit: 1028

That's exactly the problem. If these people are new to trading and high-risk assets, they are vulnerable to panic reactions when a short seller tries to lower the price. (Even worse if they have learned some basic TA and the short-seller is "attacking" just at a relevant price mark)

Gold has "intrinsic value" because it's used in the industry. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is tied to the network effect, mainly because it's "useful" to move money around and sell and buy things. Unfortunately just this "usefulness" is getting actually hit because of the scalability problem (higher transaction fees, bottlenecks ...).

Gold has no intrinsic value. Nobody buys it because it's used in some niche cases. If that was the case, the marketcap would be tiny compared to the current marketcap, which is based on:

1) Network effect
2) Ability to hold money outside of the system
3) Speculation

Just like bitcoin. But bitcoin is even better since it has unique features, like moving money from A to B in ways that are impossible in any other way, that is it intrinsic feature dare I say.

About noobs panic selling or panic buying, that also happens with gold, but since the marketcap is huge, the effect is not that noticeable. Bitcoin will keep growing in marketcap, which means those same panic sells/buys will be less noticeable overtime.

Here I partly agree - these affirmations of bears that "Bitcoin will be dead" in short time are not more credible after it survived even the MtGox disaster. But I think if the ETF is rejected, a FOMO rally would be delayed at least some months - I would expect it end-2017/beginning of 2018, maybe earlier if things are moving forward regarding scalability.

Bitcoin is undervalued as it is today, so it will keep growing even if no major scaling updates are rolled out, with that im not saying shouldn't and will not come, they will sooner or later (not in BUcoin form tho)

I would not be too sure of this to be an "eternal protection of Bitcoin's leadership". In the last days, there was a lot of movement in the altcoin market. We never had 7 coins with more of 100 million market cap before. I agree that Dash may be a P'n'D but the Monero and ETH rallies, for example, look much more sustainable. And more important: This time the altcoin supporters have a "valid reason" for their grandezza dreams: their transactions are much cheaper and faster than Bitcoin's.

Those coins are so fast because nobody uses them. If they had the same amount of transaction volume as bitcoin then guess what would happen.

https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage

You can see here, BTC dominance has been about 85% during the DASH pump, so BTC didn't even flinch. Since the altcoin hype started back in 2013, as naturally predicted, it went from 100 to 80% ish on average and is being pretty stable there. The lower peaks are due ridiculous hype like the ETH pump and dump.
legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
I think it's very likely that we'll crash if the ETF is rejected. My guess based on nothing other than a personal opinion is around a 200 USD dump.

Hopefully it is approved though.
legendary
Activity: 3906
Merit: 6249
Decentralization Maximalist
Gold is not useful to be sent around quickly and cheaply, this does not mean it isn't a good safe haven, and that is why people are buying bitcoin, not to buy coffee but to improve their wealth and keep it outside the system.

That's exactly the problem. If these people are new to trading and high-risk assets, they are vulnerable to panic reactions when a short seller tries to lower the price. (Even worse if they have learned some basic TA and the short-seller is "attacking" just at a relevant price mark)

Gold has "intrinsic value" because it's used in the industry. Bitcoin's intrinsic value is tied to the network effect, mainly because it's "useful" to move money around and sell and buy things. Unfortunately just this "usefulness" is getting actually hit because of the scalability problem (higher transaction fees, bottlenecks ...).

Look what? just short lived pump and dumps. Bitcoin 80%+ marketcap supremacy over all altcoins is as solid at ever.

I would not be too sure of this to be an "eternal protection of Bitcoin's leadership". In the last days, there was a lot of movement in the altcoin market. We never had 7 coins with more of 100 million market cap before. I agree that Dash may be a P'n'D but the Monero and ETH rallies, for example, look much more sustainable. And more important: This time the altcoin supporters have a "valid reason" for their grandezza dreams: their transactions are much cheaper and faster than Bitcoin's.
legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1088
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.

C'mon. Bitcoin crashes at the slightest little thing. Chinese rumours, PBOC visiting exchanges, DDOS attacks on exchanges. Pretty much any bad news is used to dump coins, and I don't think it will be different this time if the ETF is rejected.
legendary
Activity: 1806
Merit: 1164
The market has to some extent priced in approval of the ETF. Not very wise but that is how markets work. If COIN is denied you can count on a correction, probably an ABC correction to $900 - $1000 which presents a buying opportunity. Anyone who thinks traders will shrug off disapproval is naive.
Pages:
Jump to: