Price will not crash if the ETF is rejected - page 2.

Vaccinus

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Quote from: d5000 on March 06, 2017, 11:55:16 AM

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

That obviously doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead. Trend reversals happen and will happen again. Best we can expect is that the reversal this time is less harsh and maybe could pressure the devs to accelerate a scalability solution.

but what make you think that current value represent mass adoption? nothing make this true, in fact with the true adoption bitcoin would be at $50k, not at $700, $700 is a joke man, it's not a value for mass adoption, and we don't need to fix that issue to have bitcoin holding at $1000, but i agree that it must be fixed for the future to make bitcoin stronger

BillyBobZorton

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Quote from: d5000 on March 06, 2017, 11:55:16 AM

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

Gold is not useful to be sent around quickly and cheaply, this does not mean it isn't a good safe haven, and that is why people are buying bitcoin, not to buy coffee but to improve their wealth and keep it outside the system.

Quote from: d5000 on March 06, 2017, 11:55:16 AM

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

Bitcoin continues to be a better gold no matter what. The fact that bitcoin is constantly getting older, it makes it increasinly more valuable because it keeps proving it can survive for a long time, not to mention the obvious fact that less and less coins will be available so FOMO is a matter of time that it would kick in.

Quote from: d5000 on March 06, 2017, 11:55:16 AM

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

Look what? just short lived pump and dumps. Bitcoin 80%+ marketcap supremacy over all altcoins is as solid at ever.

About the instamined thing, satoshi didn't change total coin supply:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/darkcoin-aka-dash-the-biggest-ongoing-scam-in-crypto-995710

d5000

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Decentralization Maximalist

My opinion is that it very probably will crash. Not in a single move, but it would be the beginning of a trend reversal.

1) The very bullish trend channel that began at ~735 USD is not sustainable. Bitcoin is not ready for mass adoption because of the scalability problems, so the money incoming is purely speculative. And most of the speculation is probably related to the ETF.

2) Apart from the ETF there are no fundamentals that would back a sustained price rise. The stalemate in the Segwit/"big block" discussion is fundamentally bearish.

3) The "danger" that an altcoin could take significant market share from BTC is growing. Look at Dash, Monero et al. (I personally dislike Dash because it's instamined - but what about Satoshi? And Monero seems OK.)

That obviously doesn't mean that Bitcoin is dead. Trend reversals happen and will happen again. Best we can expect is that the reversal this time is less harsh and maybe could pressure the devs to accelerate a scalability solution.

(altair)

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I think that you are absolutely right about it,
And also I really do hope that it is true I bitcoin price went this far without even the ETF accepting it,
So why will it effect the bitcoin's price I mean why would it crash if they reject it.

york780

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Yes it is my friend. You can see it because bitcoin is in overbought area. Dont let them fool you. Dont let the dump take you.

lordquanta

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Quote from: cellard on March 05, 2017, 01:52:45 PM

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.

Good, that you also think price is not rising due to ETF. Now that you mention that bitcoin will not fall after ETF rejection, could you share you thoughts on why bitcoin price is increasing in first place? There must be other reasons or justification for price rise. Is it another pump and dump?

Red-Apple

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Quote from: shannen87 on March 06, 2017, 02:25:46 AM

Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

you are just repeating the same $900 false speculation with other words. and i have to tell you 20% drop is way too big for just an ETF rejection. price needs much more than that to drop that much.
and even if by some miracle some whales dumped it down to lower than $1000 it will jump back up immediately.

Reid

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There is no ETF when this price grow way high.
I think it will not affect that too even if accepted or not.
This is a good thread to open up the minds of those who think there will be a big change like the one posted way up there saying it will go down to $900. Pfft.
Even if it gets accepted there wont be much of a change.

Seansky

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Well it will not really crash like everyone expects it too since bitcoin is strong unlike in the past 2013 where it can be easily manipulated. I just expect a correction to a little near 1000$ or sub 1000$ but it will be back up again. I really do hope that ETF will be accepted so that I can receive more money from converting bitcoin since I always convert to fiat. If it is rejected, I guess I will rebuy again to gain the btc that I lost in converting to fiat.

NUFCrichard

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Quote from: cellard on March 05, 2017, 01:52:45 PM

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.

So you don't think it will rise sharply if it is accepted then? The price now will lie between the price of if the ETF is accepted and if it is rejected.

Apparently there is a 1/3 chance it will be accepted and a 2/3 chance of rejection. So the price rise should the ETF be accepted should be double the fall if it is rejected. Still we don't know how much is priced into the market, except that we are at ATHs.

There are obviously not too many shorts at the moment, that is why the price is at an ATH and rising!

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: cellard on March 05, 2017, 01:52:45 PM

I think a lot of people is going to go bankrupt with their short expectations.

ETF or not, bitcoin is growing and too strong, it will keep growing. If the ETF is rejected, it just means we are closer than we were from an ETF getting accepted. The SEC will give up the final recommendations and changes required for the ETF to get passed the next time. This is a long term race. ETF rejected means nothing. Shorts that are expecting a big crash may have their short positions backfire.

That is my thinking....if it does not pass...800 to 900 coin and it pops back to around ATH in a month, due to strong fundamentals imho

If the ETF does pass..then buy like heck because the mother of all pumps is coming and the new floor will likely (again imho) be around 1500 usd at worst)

thus perfect....moon buy...bust buy..as a long term holder it is even more obvious then normal when to buy

OmegaStarScream

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How It means nothing? It definitely means something as the price is simply based on demand and supply, people who bought only and only hoping to make some profit from the ETF will see no results after the ETF and that will simply make them sell their coins and the price will decrease or crash (depends on how much bitcoins were bought in the first place)

virasisog

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For the mean time in my own speculation maybe its has a big effect on bitcoins price on its ATH .
But then if ETF is not approved it has effect also on bitcoins price to dump .Not worrying about this because it will not stop the bitcoins price .Bitcoins can stand alone and ETF if not this time, it will will go for the long term process .

Teraboy

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Quote from: oaks05 on March 06, 2017, 01:57:20 AM

if the ETF gets rejected it will drop under 1000 in my opinion, not really a bad thing its to be expected, A price crash like a couple years ago though no not a chance.

$1000 is the maximum decrease the price of bitcoin, because bitcoin has the strong support right now, a lot of the new demands according to the stat of the bitcoin network and the demand is always increase everytime.

cengsuwuei

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#SWGT PRE-SALE IS LIVE

if ETF not aprove bitcoin, i think bitcoin price can crash and very down price
my prediction is much people panic selling too, bitcoin price can range 700 - 900 dollar bitcoin,
but if bitcoin user not panic selling, bitcoin price can still above 900 dollar, maybe still 1000 dollar/bitcoin

shannen87

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Upon ETD rejection, BTC price won't get crashed.
It will drop -15/-20% MAX. from current price.
So don't except prices under $1000 in any case.
MARK my words.

Carlsen

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I do not think it will crash.
It might drop a little, but it will not crash.
Most of the guys who know what they are talking about already predict that ETF will not be approved, so it will not be a surprise.
Maybe a few of the small speculants try it anyway, and they sell after a negative vote. But I can not imagine big investors moving in when chances are against them.

oaks05

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if the ETF gets rejected it will drop under 1000 in my opinion, not really a bad thing its to be expected, A price crash like a couple years ago though no not a chance.

pooya87

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this is how bitcoin market works these days, maybe in a couple of years it grows bigger and exchanges grow bigger so newbies become irrelevant in how price changes.
the news like this always change the course of price temporarily, i agree that it won't crash but we will surely see a drop even small if it is rejected because many weak hands see that as a crash and run away. and the funny part is this is not the first time and not the first news and won't be the last.

the only thing that we can do is taking advantage of this to make a bigger profit. why just let whales make profit

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: Snorek on March 05, 2017, 03:35:48 PM

It is hard to say that current ATH price of bitcoin is here to stay. At least now we know that it wasn't short lived bubble like that mad race in 2013.
But 'permanent' is just not a word you can find in bitcoin's glossary of terms, as far as we know price be get back to pre $800 level and no one will skip a beat.
It is obvious that high price is boosted by ETF drive, but the question is how much? Because there is no high chance for ETF approval in the first place.

This is true. I actually wasn't expecting to get anywhere near a new ATH this soon. In fact, I pretty much wrote off bitcoin in 2014, before buying some for the first time in '15. Anyhow, I don't know how much of this price movement has to do with this ETF, but bitcoin can and will survive without it, if it comes to that. I'm still not sure what advantage introducing a derivative into the bitcoin world is, except whales can come in and buy freely without worrying about buying up every single satoshi and moving the price up a few thousand dollars.

I'm financially naive, however. It'll be interesting to see what happens if/when the ETF does get approved. March 11th, correct?

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