PrimeDice Strategy - 15 BTC Winnings in 24 Hrs - Limited Release - page 3.

CrackedLogic

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Quote from: finnile on November 30, 2014, 11:36:01 AM

Most of his profits come from the long losing streaks. If he was base betting at 2.821x (from picture posted) and almost doubling his bet size, then after every loss, the next win would get him a big profit. So a win at 1 BTC bet, would give him a profit of around 0.6-0.8 BTC. If he loses that, then the next win at around 2 BTC would give him a profit of around 1.7ish BTC. I guess his bets , when he was at 12 BTC profit, had these long streaks, and that is what got him back. But only 2 more losses, were all that was needed, for his next bet to be 6 BTC and 12 BTC.
So unless, he takes those risks again, and get lucky. He will still continue to lose more.

Also, maybe, he should have stopped at 33 BTC and probably started with a new account

, so as to atleast sell this strategy and make some profit out of people, who would have blindly believed in him.

That sounds a lot like martingale.

4ever

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Quote from: FirestarterX on November 30, 2014, 08:35:23 PM

Did I remember to mention... scam?

What scam? he didn't sell a single copy.

FirestarterX

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Did I remember to mention... scam?

finnile

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Quote from: Testing123 on November 30, 2014, 01:16:48 PM

Quote from: finnile on November 30, 2014, 11:36:01 AM

Also, maybe, he should have stopped at 33 BTC and probably started with a new account

, so as to atleast sell this strategy and make some profit out of people, who would have blindly believed in him.

I don't think anyone will buy the strategy, especially after a couple of guys have explained there can never be a winning strategy in a pure-luck game with -EV.

Well you never know. People who are new to gambling, think that a martingale is a fail safe method to make money, unless they actually lose to a bad streak. They night believe in it, and might have bought it, but for a lesser amount of course.

Testing123

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Quote from: finnile on November 30, 2014, 11:36:01 AM

Also, maybe, he should have stopped at 33 BTC and probably started with a new account

, so as to atleast sell this strategy and make some profit out of people, who would have blindly believed in him.

I don't think anyone will buy the strategy, especially after a couple of guys have explained there can never be a winning strategy in a pure-luck game with -EV.

finnile

full member

Activity: 196

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Most of his profits come from the long losing streaks. If he was base betting at 2.821x (from picture posted) and almost doubling his bet size, then after every loss, the next win would get him a big profit. So a win at 1 BTC bet, would give him a profit of around 0.6-0.8 BTC. If he loses that, then the next win at around 2 BTC would give him a profit of around 1.7ish BTC. I guess his bets , when he was at 12 BTC profit, had these long streaks, and that is what got him back. But only 2 more losses, were all that was needed, for his next bet to be 6 BTC and 12 BTC.
So unless, he takes those risks again, and get lucky. He will still continue to lose more.

Also, maybe, he should have stopped at 33 BTC and probably started with a new account

, so as to atleast sell this strategy and make some profit out of people, who would have blindly believed in him.

CrackedLogic

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Quote from: arvindr on November 30, 2014, 11:26:31 AM

Quote from: CrackedLogic on November 30, 2014, 11:01:40 AM

This doesn't seem to be working out for him.

Didn't seem like a strategy, just greed and luck.

I guess he must be thinking, that if he could come back from 12 to 18 and then to 33. , then he can make a comeback from -1 to positive.

Or his strategy has been flawed and he's not going to be able to do that.

arvindr

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Quote from: CrackedLogic on November 30, 2014, 11:01:40 AM

This doesn't seem to be working out for him.

Didn't seem like a strategy, just greed and luck.

I guess he must be thinking, that if he could come back from 12 to 18 and then to 33. , then he can make a comeback from -1 to positive.

CrackedLogic

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This doesn't seem to be working out for him.

Didn't seem like a strategy, just greed and luck.

rz20

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Quote from: rz20 on November 27, 2014, 02:48:34 PM

Profit:
33.17 btc
http://pd3.co/u/NicholasCra1

You will lose in the long term, you should stop.

Profit today: -1.26

I told you to stop, you have lost 13.000$ any comments about your strategy?

magicmexican

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Quote from: caga on November 29, 2014, 06:46:26 PM

Quote from: dooglus on November 29, 2014, 05:54:39 PM

Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on November 29, 2014, 05:44:15 PM

told ya if you kept playing you'd lose it back, you might aswell just share the system and quit while ahead before it gets ugly.

He already shared it: he uses the built-in martingale bot.

That just makes him look more stupid here. Its because, he posted that he programmed the bot to use an advanced strategy which was +EV as it only lost 20% of the times. And if he had some brains, he should have known that martingale has never succeeded for anyone in the long run. Once he was +33 BTC, he should have stopped.

Another reason why continuing was the huge -ev is that he lost all "credibility" he was trying to sell. If he was still up 10, 15, 20, 30 btc or so, he could in theory still sell that to some greedy and delusional individuals out there, maybe not for 10 btc, maybe for 1 or 0,1, but still.

I seriosly have no idea what was he thinking. Its easy enough to emulate the outcome of the martingale approach to see how fast it fails.

caga

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www.secondstrade.com - 190% return Binary option

Quote from: BGkockata on November 30, 2014, 06:42:34 AM

hes -0.91 now!Be CAREFUL GUYS!

Thats bad. I just hope he doesn't end up like AKCoinMiner, who went from -200 to +800, and then finally back to -812. He had a great run on some other sites as well, but ultimately lost most of his gambling funds on primedice. Haven't seen him much lately though.

BGkockata

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hes -0.91 now!Be CAREFUL GUYS!

hopenotlate

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Top Crypto Casino

Quote from: dooglus on November 29, 2014, 05:54:39 PM

Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on November 29, 2014, 05:44:15 PM

told ya if you kept playing you'd lose it back, you might aswell just share the system and quit while ahead before it gets ugly.

He already shared it: he uses the built-in martingale bot.

Just a quick question: How many of you think the house woukd build and share with the players a winning bot?

Talon

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im just going to assume based on dooglus response on his neg feedback on your trust, that this is really sketch.

he even provides a image link to a martingale format..

Gyfts

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The fact you have gone to 33+ BTC and down to .6 in profit shows there is no true working strategy. Really for everyone you go up and down the problem is when to cash out and stop for good because in the long term EVERYONE will be down no matter what strategy you use.

Stars

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Quote from: noma on November 29, 2014, 07:49:14 PM

Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:46:31 PM

Quote from: caga on November 29, 2014, 07:28:50 PM

Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:25:30 PM

To play devil's advocate here, people also said he should stop at +15 btc, but he didn't, and ended up winning twice as much. It's easy once he has actually lost to say "ha, what an idiot, he should have stopped while he was ahead", since you have the benefit of knowing when he was actually at his peak. At the time, no one knew.

Yes, thats true maybe he should have. Staying ahead could also mean a profit of 1 btc

, and would have been a good move to stop then also. But, my point is, that if the strategy was martingale all along, then why risk so much of a bankroll, when it is obvious that martingale fails all the time over a long time.

Why bother gambling if your expected return is negative. Sometimes you get lucky and profit more than you should, sometimes you lose. Being up 33 btc, his decision to keep playing should be the same as his decision to play when he was up 0 btc, past results don't matter in the future.

Not taaking sides, but when I visit a casino, and win 5000$. I don't keep playing to win again. I become happy with it, and go out for a party.

Well I assume you still go back to that casino at a later date though, right? Cheesy

magicmexican

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Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:25:30 PM

Quote from: caga on November 29, 2014, 06:46:26 PM

Quote from: dooglus on November 29, 2014, 05:54:39 PM

Quote from: BitCoinNutJob on November 29, 2014, 05:44:15 PM

told ya if you kept playing you'd lose it back, you might aswell just share the system and quit while ahead before it gets ugly.

He already shared it: he uses the built-in martingale bot.

That just makes him look more stupid here. Its because, he posted that he programmed the bot to use an advanced strategy which was +EV as it only lost 20% of the times. And if he had some brains, he should have known that martingale has never succeeded for anyone in the long run. Once he was +33 BTC, he should have stopped.

To play devil's advocate here, people also said he should stop at +15 btc, but he didn't, and ended up winning twice as much. It's easy once he has actually lost to say "ha, what an idiot, he should have stopped while he was ahead", since you have the benefit of knowing when he was actually at his peak. At the time, no one knew.

On the other hands, stopping using -ev strategy is usually a decent move to make.

opossum

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Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:46:31 PM

Quote from: caga on November 29, 2014, 07:28:50 PM

Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:25:30 PM

To play devil's advocate here, people also said he should stop at +15 btc, but he didn't, and ended up winning twice as much. It's easy once he has actually lost to say "ha, what an idiot, he should have stopped while he was ahead", since you have the benefit of knowing when he was actually at his peak. At the time, no one knew.

Yes, thats true maybe he should have. Staying ahead could also mean a profit of 1 btc

, and would have been a good move to stop then also. But, my point is, that if the strategy was martingale all along, then why risk so much of a bankroll, when it is obvious that martingale fails all the time over a long time.

Why bother gambling if your expected return is negative. Sometimes you get lucky and profit more than you should, sometimes you lose. Being up 33 btc, his decision to keep playing should be the same as his decision to play when he was up 0 btc, past results don't matter in the future.

People gamble for the fun of it. The EV is only applicable for the long run, if you gamble for the short term (as most people do) then you can potentially make money.

You also have the social aspect of conversing with others at the table (or in bitcoinworld in the chatroom)

rayhan

sr. member

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be your self

Quote from: noma on November 29, 2014, 07:49:14 PM

Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:46:31 PM

Quote from: caga on November 29, 2014, 07:28:50 PM

Quote from: MadZ on November 29, 2014, 07:25:30 PM

To play devil's advocate here, people also said he should stop at +15 btc, but he didn't, and ended up winning twice as much. It's easy once he has actually lost to say "ha, what an idiot, he should have stopped while he was ahead", since you have the benefit of knowing when he was actually at his peak. At the time, no one knew.

Yes, thats true maybe he should have. Staying ahead could also mean a profit of 1 btc

, and would have been a good move to stop then also. But, my point is, that if the strategy was martingale all along, then why risk so much of a bankroll, when it is obvious that martingale fails all the time over a long time.

Why bother gambling if your expected return is negative. Sometimes you get lucky and profit more than you should, sometimes you lose. Being up 33 btc, his decision to keep playing should be the same as his decision to play when he was up 0 btc, past results don't matter in the future.

Not taaking sides, but when I visit a casino, and win 5000$. I don't keep playing to win again. I become happy with it, and go out for a party.

nah i like your way

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