Math can give u some estimate but it doesn't mean much in real life. As proven by Hufflepuff . He wagered 60k btc and is in profit of 2000 when he should be in about -600 .
For that stuff i don't rely on math to much.
What Hufflepuff did was something like a 2% chance. Unlikely, but not unreasonable. He had a 1 in 50 chance of doing what he did.
The screenshot that was posted was something like a 1 in a quadrillion chance. Unreasonably unlikely.
We can say that it's plausible that Hufflepuff wasn't cheating, and that it's incredibly likely that the screenshot of 9 losing 98% bets in a row was fake.
A 1 in 50 shot is many orders of magnitude more likely to happen than 1 in 2 quadrillion.
We rely on math and probability for Bitcoin itself. There's a small but non-zero chance that I can guess the PD cold storage private key, but math tells us that's very unlikely, and so we trust that it won't happen.
One thing I've always thought when these high rollers play, regardless of what site they do it on, is that the "luck" they have can be equaled by somebody else having the same luck but with a few extra zero's tailing the amounts. Example being Hufflepuff wagering 60,000 BTC and winning 2,000 BTC. In a similar scenario, which is apparently not as exciting, somebody wagering 6 BTC and profiting 0.6 BTC with 0.0012 bets at 3x.
I can't be too far off in guessing that stuff like this happens plenty and we just don't recognize it because of the lower amounts? Trying to decipher a high rollers winnings is as relevant as deciphering anybody elses.
Glad you've won again tonight 
I hope I didn't miss out on anything good 
. DONE