Math can give u some estimate but it doesn't mean much in real life. As proven by Hufflepuff . He wagered 60k btc and is in profit of 2000 when he should be in about -600 .
For that stuff i don't rely on math to much.
What Hufflepuff did was something like a 2% chance. Unlikely, but not unreasonable. He had a 1 in 50 chance of doing what he did.
The screenshot that was posted was something like a 1 in a quadrillion chance. Unreasonably unlikely.
We can say that it's plausible that Hufflepuff wasn't cheating, and that it's incredibly likely that the screenshot of 9 losing 98% bets in a row was fake.
A 1 in 50 shot is many orders of magnitude more likely to happen than 1 in 2 quadrillion.
We rely on math and probability for Bitcoin itself. There's a small but non-zero chance that I can guess the PD cold storage private key, but math tells us that's very unlikely, and so we trust that it won't happen.