nimda, it's kind of fun arguing with you
I have issues with most of the points you posted, but I only have time to respond to what I think are the most important, the last two:
One more note about DoubleMyCoins is people seem to forget you can also play 1 game. The real idea behind my site is for people to walk up to the table, plonk down one massive bet, and sweat it out before making a choice. That's really the experience I tried to create. No one can say that's not a 50/50 chance, which is provably fair.
Actually, I can. Do you keep statistics or past bet data? If yes, can you quickly check what percentage of bets in the top 1% of value were placed on the left card? If no, can you start?
Thanks.
Yes, every game is recorded. I could check but I don't need to: I'm going to go out on a limb and say you think there will be a bias toward picking the left card, correct? Why would there be a bias? Off the top of my head I would say because people in Western countries read from left to right, so that would make the left card slightly more favored (my unscientific theory).
If I were to run a check would I find that's true? I might, but that wouldn't prove anything. Not enough games have been played. It could be that given the same time into the future the bias shifts to 'right'. It would take a large enough time period to be relatively sure any bias really was there.
But all that doesn't get to the core issue -- which is walking up to a table and having a 50/50 chance at winning. I think the "online" aspect is your sticking point, so let me put it this way: Say I'm like those people on the street in New York that shuffle three cards and ask you to find the Queen. Of course, their sleight of hand makes that difficult. But imagine you walk up to MY table and there are only 2 cards there. I tell you one of them is a Red Ace and all you have to do is flip it over to win.
Now, you're honestly going to tell me you don't have a 50/50 chance of winning? Even if I have some personal theory about people reading left to right?
If you do that in Las Vegas at the Roulette wheel, betting on Red or Black, it's not 50/50 because 00 (green) can still beat you. My game is exactly 50/50.
But you don't pay out 2x the bet, right? A 2x bet on 49.5% odds has the same house edge as a 1.98x bet on 50% odds. That's a bit offtopic though.
It's not the same. I believe my game favors the bettor more. I pay out 99% of the win (each win is less 1% house fee).
This is actually better than a game playing "edge", if you play only
1 game. If you play Just Dice, for example, which has a 1% edge, on 1 single roll for 10 bitcoins (about 10K) if that roll falls between 49.5 and 50.5 you lose. You would lose 10 BTC (10K) on 1 game
no matter what action you take. Whether you would have chosen High or Low makes no difference. That tiny 1 percentage point in the middle of 1-100 can eat your entire bet, regardless what was chosen, no way you could have won.
That means you're most likely to only win or lose by action, but very likely to lose at least 1% of the time over many games. The average amount you should lose should be 1% of your total wins/losses. The problem is for playing just 1 time your bad luck may hit you all at once, because that 1% is built into each
pick.
Losing regardless of your action is impossible with DoubleMyCoins. You are
guaranteed to either win or lose by your action. No in between. If you win, you win pretty much the full 10 BTC (9.9 BTC or about $9,900). Think of it like paying insurance, you're paying insurance to be sure your action will result in
only a win or loss. (same problem with Roulette -- 1 game could come up 00, green)