Topic: Public service announcement for noobs: Why the drop really happened (Read 1196 times)

TA is not a nonsense, self fulfilling prophecy because you can never underestimate the other guy's greed.  There's always going to be someone wanting to take profit on any type of significant increase, or seeking to profit on bargains.  As soon as people see any signals that the upside potential has stalled, here comes the profit taking.  Now that you've learned how TA works, go forth into the world my son.

I don't agree with OP. First, Mike Hearn's blog post is completely true no matter how bad it sounds for Bitcoin community, and it's even still true if banksters paid him. Secondly, your triangle is connected to the right, and what then? TA is nonsense. Only functions as a self-fulfilling prophecy on big markets.

True dat.

VCs were going to attempt to prop it up around the $400 level IMO, and they might have succeeded, but the Hearn garbage + minor Cryptsy stuff + possibility of classic fork tipped the scales of the dump way harder than normal.

Any serious trader that understands markets has been pretty much calling a correction.....down to about where we are/were, at the very least. Only n00bs were advising to load up with BTC at $450, and expecting next stop, da moon. Now we got down to $350, jury is out as to what Bitcoin does next. But perhaps the answer to that question lies in the answer to this question? Q) What market course suits the Chinese Whales the best, and makes them most money?

Bullshit post.  I'll calculate cost of production later, but when I did it for SP30s like a year ago, with electricity + hardware cost combined, I seem to recall it being in the 200's way back then, and there's more hash on network now without much rollout of more efficient miners yet.


Wrong.  He's been calling $330 coins ever since it started to rise and everyone knows it, and it went all the way to $460 again, so he was way the hell off.

He was calling for $330 coins in the drop on the white circled area of the chart below and instead of dropping, it only went to 400 then went even higher than before the drop:

Lol.  I'm not sure if anyone thought the MatTheCat reverse indicator thread would be sound logic since the thread relies on doing the opposite of whatever you do, and you should technically be right around 50% of the time with a 10% or so margin of error at least?  There are people who make money on BTC by just buying off Coinbase without even looking at a chart, so I would assume you can outperform that somehow.

OP has no credibility. Just last week, he started a thread poking fun at me for my bearish outlook. MatTheCat - Ultimate Reverse Indicator thread....or something along those lines.......and he can't do TA either.....TA, on Bitcoinwisdom, really?

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.13484814



This^^

Bitcoin is too cornered a market for media stories such as Hearn or Cryptsy to matter a flying fuck in themselves. What these 'stories' can do however, is provide fertile grounds for the Market Makers to do their thang.....

....Last week, Bitcoin was rocketing thanks to China Stock market crash and Yuan devaluation. Last I checked, both these issues were still on the same course as last week, except looking even more foreboding.....so where is all the Chinese Capital flooding into Bitcoin?

Bitcoin has been co-opted by a few Chinese whales. They are running this market as thier own personal cash cow, and will ramp, dump, ramp, dump, and then ramp some more, filling their fucking boots every swing up n down of the way, whilst the majority of Bitcoin traders/investors are scrambling around reddit, forums, news site, trying to pin some half baked narrative on the whole shenanigans.

Bitcoin market is 100% bullshit. All of it. But maybe if ya play yer cards right, you can put a few shillings in yer pocket that you otherwise wouldn't have, but the majority will lose out by design, and er, don't get too greedy, euphoric, or complacent. To all those thinking new ATHs are inevitable. Think again. That aint how these fuckers are going to make their money. Mike Hearn describes quite well I think, how those who now control Bitcoin, don't really want it to get that big.

Bitcoins main purpose, has become to enrich it's Chinese masters, whilst providing a service as a niche means of Capital Flight out of that country, once again, enriching it's Chinese masters.

Wow... OP, considering that you are a permabull, I think it's the first time I agree with you, the dump was due to TA, but went deeper because of bad news.

Double digits it is! Gotcha
Seeing that cost of production is in the middle $100's and they are making a killing at current prices, sounds quite plausible. I'm glad you brought this up

The quote I made about 360 being the bottom was speaking solely about the uptrend running out of fuel and having a correction from too many people being overleveraged with no more upside potential to look forware to in the short term.  That quote wasn't taking anything about the classic hard fork occurring into account because nobody knows when it will happen yet.  The fork will likely temporarily dump Bitcoin to lower than cost of production, then raise much higher after it's all over with.  Since it seems to be coming relatively soon, I just don't see a reason to stay in the market until it's priced in unless you think the world economic system will collapse before it happens.

I can't imagine the hard fork not bringing coin price temporarily to something like $320, and that's the good-case scenario where all exchanges switch to the 2MB fork.  If something like only half of exchanges switch, there will be a bloodbath.  That's why they should probably try and get all exchanges intentions in writing before proceeding.

I agree totally, it's like "Shazam, now IS THE TIME"

But it's an important aspect of bitcoin. The volatility is strong with this currency. 

No need of a true reason, just a panic sell.

For the record, do you see it going below $350 now?

Do you think there's the slightest possibility of that with the combination of Bitcoin Classic hardfork, Cryptsy, and Mike Hearn? I don't believe TA works with all the manipulation that goes on in a market as thin as Bitcoin's. Manipulation and the power of events to affect the market make TA useless.

I use the term "overleveraged" loosely, meaning people were risking more money than they can afford to on the way up just in case it was "the big one", which will likely happen again later this year heh.

BFX longs are down, what, 1MM? 1.5MM?  I'd hardly call that de-leveraging.

Traders took advantage of the Hearn business.  They just waited until dumb money heard the news, panic sold, and are (likely) slowly re-accumulating.

I agree that until the Classic fork is done it's shaky ground, but I don't think that when it's over we're suddenly going to go right back up.

TA is for ignorant, unscientific children. Too lazy to learn Haruspex? Can't read cat entrails, like real market scientists do, because too complicated? Just scribble some lines on a chart, no prob!

Cud u say what u saw it at this point (the technical term). Just interested for the future
Nice post anyway

It was an overleveraged market whose uptrend had obviously stalled, and Mike Hearn helped accelerate the de-leveraging.  I would be buying the dip, but the Bitcoin Classic fork will drop it again until it's over.  If you want to minimize risk, the only logical move is to wait for that to be priced in, unless you think world financial markets are going to collapse tomorrow.

Here is the exact point that indicated complete end of rally with drop immiment:

LOL @ TA being the primary motivator for the drop.

Yeah, a near arbitrary line was crossed so everyone just said fuck it and threw the towel in causing rates to drop $75.

IMO the stars aligned and some big fish took an opportunity to shake the market.