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Topic: Public service announcement for noobs: Why the drop really happened - page 2. (Read 1212 times)

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
The drop was not caused by Mike Hearn.  Hearn made the drop worse and accelerated it, but it was not caused by him.  His post could be summarized as him claiming Bitcoin has failed if the blocks become full, but blocks were always destined to become full and reach a fee market even if you raised them to 32MB.  His post made zero logical sense, to the point where it was basically propaganda and someone at R3 probably paid him to make it.

Now, onto why the drop actually occurred.  The drop occurred because....drumroll....TA.  Look at my chart and post before I even heard about the Mike Hearn deal.




I don't see it going to $350 under any circumstance.  If the rally is over, which it might be for a while according to macro wedge breaking trend, then it would find strong support around $410 still.  If there's a dump, that's where it will go.  If a second dump occurred days/a week later after that, it would find big resistance again at 390's.  Worst case scenario would be $360, but would probably require a long time to get there, and by the time it did, would be time to go up again for getting closer to halving.

And here's me calling when to buy before the rally:

In the past four years, there's probably never been a safer time to hold Bitcoin than now.

Instead of being a slow de-leveraging from breaking trend spread out over days, it happened all at once due to the Mike Hearn thing, plus Cryptsy scare on top of that.  Cryptsy is honestly probably a non-event though and not even really worth discussing.  Keep in mind my post was only factoring in the de-leveraging of trend breaking.  Now we also have a Bitcoin Classic hardfork that seems 90% likely to occur IMO.  I will likely stay on the sidelines until that is resolved because even a non-contested hard fork will usually temporarily drop price, but there's a few developers and users protesting it.  The 2MB fork will probably have 80%+ hash rate + exchange support and win, so it's not really that big of a deal for Bitcoin's future, but more price drop is likely until it's over.

Lightning Network has to raise the block size anyway in the future, so I see the current situation as just "Bitcoin Core" trying to create a dictatorship over the coin and centralize it by whoever has access to a certain Github repo.  There's no way in hell you can call Bitcoin decentralized if you claim only four or so people are allowed to create changes to be put up for vote by miners.  They claim their ideology is decentralization, but their actions in the real world are the opposite of that.  Even if you assumed they're right and really are "benevolent" dictators and Gavin is an evil CIA spy, their ideology is inconsistent with how Bitcoin is supposed to actually function.  If they can't accept that fact, they probably need to go.  

If you attempt to censor or block issues from being put up to vote by miners, it just creates an even bigger missile crisis down the road because ideological differences do not go away, they just keep coming back over and over, so it's futile to attempt to stop.  People have already attempted numerous changes to be put up to vote by miners in the past.  Most have failed.  However, it's blatantly obvious changes will pass in the future that certain devs don't agree with.  If this wasn't the reality of the future of the coin, it wouldn't be decentralized in the first place.
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