Pure Speculation Graph | Bitcointalksearch.org

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: TraderTimm on August 20, 2011, 01:04:15 PM

Quote from: proudhon on August 19, 2011, 07:11:39 PM

Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not? I'm sincerely asking.

Sure, in my post here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-dichotomy-of-a-bubble-why-bitcoin-will-endure-26117

I talk about how bubbles have symmetry, where you take the buildup from the base to their peak, project forward in time and can get an idea of where they end.

Based on that, the end of the bitcoin bubble would have to be the end of August, with a price around $5.00, plus or minus a small percentage.

Because we are nearing that time, and the price hasn't lapsed to $5, I conclude we are not in a bubble, and things can progress normally.

That's it.

I missed that thread. Interesting analysis. Thanks for putting that together.

TraderTimm

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1121

Quote from: proudhon on August 19, 2011, 07:11:39 PM

Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not? I'm sincerely asking.

Sure, in my post here:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-dichotomy-of-a-bubble-why-bitcoin-will-endure-26117

I talk about how bubbles have symmetry, where you take the buildup from the base to their peak, project forward in time and can get an idea of where they end.

Based on that, the end of the bitcoin bubble would have to be the end of August, with a price around $5.00, plus or minus a small percentage.

Because we are nearing that time, and the price hasn't lapsed to $5, I conclude we are not in a bubble, and things can progress normally.

That's it.

Flappy

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 19, 2011, 02:08:55 PM

Quote from: Flappy on August 19, 2011, 01:31:00 PM

How 'bout this?

That would be acceptable.

One thing to consider though is that there was a paradigm shift where mining became profitable not for speculation but for direct selling. So this graph could be faulty as well.
I all depends on the masses mining on 300Mhash or less if they decide to sell the lower line would have to be placed against the start of exponential rise and the first low at USD 1. In that case resistance could even be at 4.

You may be right.
Lets take a step back and look at the long term for a second. When you think about the ultimate success or failure of bitcoin, I feel the question is more fundamental than that.

A) Can bitcoin attract enough buyers with deep pockets to continue the trend.
or
B) Can bitcoin achieve a sufficient level of adoption as a currency.

I feel the answer to (A) is no. I don't think who is mining makes much difference in the long run. The rate at which bitcoins are mined remains constant. And hoarding will never create a healthy bitcoin economy. For that reason I'd rather see thousands of plebes mining (and spending their coins) than a few large speculative operations hoarding.

The answer to (B) depends on entrepreneurial vendors in conjunction with the developer community using bitcoin (and marketing it) to sell products.

Right now bitcoin is still just an investment vehicle. But I think the world financial climate is certainly ripe for (B).

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: TraderTimm on August 19, 2011, 05:24:13 PM

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

Why should I think $5 is the threshold for whether bitcoin was in a bubble or not? I'm sincerely asking.

BitcoinStars.com

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

Quote from: TraderTimm on August 19, 2011, 05:24:13 PM

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

Sounds like someone is feeling bullish Cool

TraderTimm

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1121

That is the sweetest uptrend channel chart I've ever seen

Also, we're nearing the end of August. As some may know, I posted about the 'bubble' claims being invalidated if we were above $5 by then. We are certainly a good margin above that now.

Onward and upward, my friends!

FlipPro

legendary

Activity: 1764

Merit: 1015

If this doesn't say rally I don't know what does...

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

One thing you might look out for is the volume of cards appearing on ebay, if it were to increase we might be heading for another drop in price. If it dries out... well here you go Cool

BitcoinStars.com

full member

Activity: 140

Merit: 100

graphs are cool Cool

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: Flappy on August 19, 2011, 01:31:00 PM

How 'bout this?

That would be acceptable.

One thing to consider though is that there was a paradigm shift where mining became profitable not for speculation but for direct selling. So this graph could be faulty as well.
I all depends on the masses mining on 300Mhash or less if they decide to sell the lower line would have to be placed against the start of exponential rise and the first low at USD 1. In that case resistance could even be at 4.

Flappy

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: ElectricMucus on August 19, 2011, 11:37:17 AM

But your graph implies the wrong thing. IF the low resistance in your graph is read correctly it would go to 7 first before raising again.

cheater Grin

How 'bout this?

xali

member

Activity: 163

Merit: 10

no one can say for sure exactly why people are buying bitcoins.

If it really was that smart of a reason, then the people who saw the appeal in bitcoin for that reason would also see the appeal in bitcoin in how its decentralized and secure and everything and how the current monetary system is flawed.

but I highly doubt the average bitcoin buyer actually would think that much (if they did, they would never sell and always hold, simply because having USD or whatever as opposed to BTC is supporting a flawed system). All they see OMG THE PRICE IS GOING HIGHER I CAN BUY SUM AND SELL WHEN ITS REALLY HIGH DERP. or something like that...

tacotime

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1005

for the same reason you peak with gold: fear of inflation/devaluation of cash holdings decreasing. exactly the same as what happened to gold after 1980. the reason bitcoin is popular (aside from being novel) is everyone's fear of inflation because of european/american debt problems. as a deflationary commodity supply of bitcoin can never be excessively increased, so in times of inflation fears it appears more attractive than cash holdings because it may retain its value better until the fear of inflationary crisis is resolved.

xali

member

Activity: 163

Merit: 10

why would we peak with bitcoin?? ur not making anysense

tacotime

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1005

this is true, but i'm not sure how much people will continually demand it like gold is being demanded. we're gonna peak soon with gold and with bitcoin.

xali

member

Activity: 163

Merit: 10

Quote from: tacotime on August 19, 2011, 11:48:01 AM

the currency we use would have to as well

?!?!? the value of the US dollar has nothing (well not that much) to do with the value of BTC. all it really comes down to is supply and demand.. if there are more people buying bitcoins then selling them, then the price is raised.

tacotime

legendary

Activity: 1484

Merit: 1005

For bitcoin to continue to grow exponentially at an average rate of 10% or so a month the currency we use would have to as well

not happening

but we can dream

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

But your graph implies the wrong thing. IF the low resistance in your graph is read correctly it would go to 7 first before raising again.

cheater Grin

pekv2

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 502

Quote from: Serge on August 19, 2011, 02:42:18 AM

Quote from: pekv2 on August 19, 2011, 12:24:57 AM

I really like you speculation Grin

, who wouldn't? Tongue

Nagle, Edward50, BtcEconomist and few others - what are they doing here I still have no idea

Rofl, I really didn't expect an answer and specially some persons that wouldn't like it. Cheesy

Technomage

legendary

Activity: 2184

Merit: 1056

Affordable Physical Bitcoins - Denarium.com

Quote from: piramida on August 19, 2011, 03:11:18 AM

They have 20 dollars each and want to become bitcoin billionaires. So they are waiting for the price to drop to 1 cent or less, and are genuinely surprised that market does not agree with their wish.

+1

Topic: Pure Speculation Graph (Read 2964 times)