The Dichotomy Of a Bubble - Why Bitcoin Will Endure

TraderTimm

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Quote from: mystery2048 on July 07, 2012, 02:42:13 PM

Not sure if it was a bubble, or just the markets overheating...

I'm sure it isn't by now, and yes - the market did do a nice exponential-like blowoff before settling down again. This actually happens from time to time in commodities due to supply problems (although limits on daily trading offset this effect partially).

Can't wait to see what happens next - we've had some good progress in the last few weeks, steady fill and grind, not the spike/collapse we saw last summer.

mystery2048

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Not sure if it was a bubble, or just the markets overheating...

BlackPrapor

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Quote from: TraderTimm on June 16, 2012, 09:41:15 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on June 16, 2012, 09:13:04 PM

i'll be d*mned! looks who's back! welcome TraderTimm. we missed you. glad to see you didn't give up entirely.

Ponzi's don't bounce and this latest rise is healthy and sustainable.

I've been busy

Good to see ya, cypherdoc. I feel the current monetary problems around the world will be a catalyst for bitcoin.

^^this

TraderTimm

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Quote from: cypherdoc on June 16, 2012, 09:13:04 PM

i'll be d*mned! looks who's back! welcome TraderTimm. we missed you. glad to see you didn't give up entirely.

Ponzi's don't bounce and this latest rise is healthy and sustainable.

I've been busy

Good to see ya, cypherdoc. I feel the current monetary problems around the world will be a catalyst for bitcoin.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: TraderTimm on June 16, 2012, 09:10:19 PM

Interesting how things work out, eh?

I'm ready to take some medicine as well - I thought it would stabilize around the 5.00 area, but instead it declined to the low above 2.00 around late November 2011.

Things improved off the lows from late Nov. '11 through Jan. '12, finally plateauing at 4.50 - 5.00, where I thought it would end up in the first place.

We've also had a modest rise thanks to other events in the world, most notably the ongoing erosion of the Eurodollar. This sunday June 17th, 2012 should be very interesting, as Greece will be on the threshold of either staying in the Euro or not.

In conclusion, bitcoin is *NOT* a bubble.

i'll be d*mned! looks who's back! welcome TraderTimm. we missed you. glad to see you didn't give up entirely.

Ponzi's don't bounce and this latest rise is healthy and sustainable.

TraderTimm

legendary

Activity: 2408

Merit: 1121

Interesting how things work out, eh?

I'm ready to take some medicine as well - I thought it would stabilize around the 5.00 area, but instead it declined to the low above 2.00 around late November 2011.

Things improved off the lows from late Nov. '11 through Jan. '12, finally plateauing at 4.50 - 5.00, where I thought it would end up in the first place.

We've also had a modest rise thanks to other events in the world, most notably the ongoing erosion of the Eurodollar. This sunday June 17th, 2012 should be very interesting, as Greece will be on the threshold of either staying in the Euro or not.

In conclusion, bitcoin is *NOT* a bubble.

netrin

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What I find fascinating about comparing this bubble/plateau cycle with October and March, is that the May-June bubble was three times longer in duration and I expect that the plateau will be three times longer as well. The trade volumes were 100 times greater. It's also worth noting that the April-July parabolic rise was almost ten times greater than Oct-November, which makes the comparison quite easy to eyeball and estimate. A drop to $3 is not impossible, though if my time-scaled voodoo is predictive, then I also expect a parabolic beyond $100 by Easter.

TraderTimm

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Netrin,
Exactly - there are long plateaus before we have spikes. Wouldn't be surprised if we just flatten out for a while before the next event, whatever it may be.

netrin

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Quote from: TraderTimm on September 02, 2011, 07:42:56 PM

Quote from: netrin on August 31, 2011, 08:54:41 PM

"Not a bubble now" or "wasn't a bubble in June"? Because Nasdaq 1997 to present looks suspiciously like bitcoin late May to present. Nasdaq may endure just as bitcoin may endure.

Fair enough, I'm not in the same league as chodpaba when it comes to making models for forecasts. All I really wanted to prove was based on prior bubbles, bitcoin doesn't behave like one.

...any longer. Bitcoin went parabolic in May and overshot in June. Unlike Nasdaq (though a bit like Gold), bitcoin has done this several times in the past score months, most notably October, November 2010.

Bitcoin_Silver_Supply

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Quote from: defxor on August 31, 2011, 06:27:49 PM

Quote from: evoorhees on July 18, 2011, 11:44:51 PM

Quote from: Jered Kenna (TradeHill) on July 18, 2011, 08:41:30 PM

Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.

Yeah how do we get HIM to check out this Bitcoin thing?! Hopefully he'd see how it will bring about the singularity faster, be making all commerce more efficient. Rumor is he takes like a billion vitamins a day so he has a chance of living until the singularity, but he'd be better served by advocating true free market money.

http://www.singularitysummit.com/

Oh goody! More elites gathered to tell us how humanity "wants" to augment irreversibly with machines and how it is a natural step in evolution. I'm glad they can remind us of how much we all desire their 'futurist' vision - the one that has been beaten into our heads via the culture industry for the last century+.

caston

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It's moving back to parity. Get your lines of credit ready gentlemen.

The_Duke

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Lead Core BitKitty Developer

Quote from: cypherdoc on September 03, 2011, 01:21:11 PM

i agree. 2 mo of a ramp does not a bubble make. while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range. i keep accumulating on the way down. just give it time. they can't stop it.

Lol. Yeah, first it stabilized around 18, then around 15, then around 13, then around 10 and now you say it stabilizes around 8. Which will only last a week or two maybe. But that is good news, because then it will stabilize again at 5, and you can "accumulate" more! And again at 3, at 2, at 1, at 0.5, at 0.01...
Keep accumulating! People like you give the early adopters more time to cash out at as much profit as they can Cheesy

cypherdoc

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i agree. 2 mo of a ramp does not a bubble make. while the falloff has been dramatic, it appears to be stabilizing around this 8-10 range. i keep accumulating on the way down. just give it time. they can't stop it.

TraderTimm

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Quote from: netrin on August 31, 2011, 08:54:41 PM

Quote from: TraderTimm on August 31, 2011, 05:25:04 PM

Conclusion: Not a bubble folks, keep your eyes on the ticker for new developments.

"Not a bubble now" or "wasn't a bubble in June"? Because Nasdaq 1997 to present looks suspiciously like bitcoin late May to present. Nasdaq may endure just as bitcoin may endure.

Fair enough, I'm not in the same league as chodpaba when it comes to making models for forecasts. All I really wanted to prove was based on prior bubbles, bitcoin doesn't behave like one. Now of course, this is the grand experiment and we don't know precisely where it will go - but my confidence is with bitcoin enduring.

The article was written to counter some of the fantastic claims from the run-up to $20 and beyond. A good number of forum participants thought it meant the destruction of bitcoin to come down from those heights. I wanted to prove them wrong, and I believe I have.

netrin

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Quote from: TraderTimm on August 31, 2011, 05:25:04 PM

Conclusion: Not a bubble folks, keep your eyes on the ticker for new developments.

"Not a bubble now" or "wasn't a bubble in June"? Because Nasdaq 1997 to present looks suspiciously like bitcoin late May to present. Nasdaq may endure just as bitcoin may endure.

defxor

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Quote from: evoorhees on July 18, 2011, 11:44:51 PM

Quote from: Jered Kenna (TradeHill) on July 18, 2011, 08:41:30 PM

Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.

Yeah how do we get HIM to check out this Bitcoin thing?! Hopefully he'd see how it will bring about the singularity faster, be making all commerce more efficient. Rumor is he takes like a billion vitamins a day so he has a chance of living until the singularity, but he'd be better served by advocating true free market money.

http://www.singularitysummit.com/

Quote

October 15-16, 2011 New York

The Singularity Summit 2011 will be a TED-style two-day event at the historic 92nd Street Y in New York City. The confirmed speakers include futurist Ray Kurzweil, neuroscientist Christof Koch, PayPal founder Peter Thiel, MIT cosmologist Max Tegmark, AI researcher Eliezer Yudkowsky, MIT polymath Alexander Wissner-Gross, DARPA challenge winner Riley Crane, Skype founder Jaan Tallinn, Jeopardy! champion Ken Jennings, economist Tyler Cowen, television personalities Jason Silva and Casey Pieretti, and robotics professors James McLurnkin and Robin Murphy.

I'm quite confident someone from this forum will be there, networking and chatting about Bitcoin.

TraderTimm

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Thread update. End of the month! As of August 31st, 2011 last quote is 8.345 on Mt. Gox @ 5:24pm EST

This is greater than 5.00, of course, and barring any 'discontinuous' events, should remain so.

Conclusion: Not a bubble folks, keep your eyes on the ticker for new developments.

imperi

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Quote from: makomk on July 20, 2011, 11:51:03 AM

Quote from: Jered Kenna (TradeHill) on July 18, 2011, 08:41:30 PM

Ray Kurzweil has some nice insights into measuring innovation and growth from a technology perspective.

Ray Kurzweil comes up with impressive-sounding ideas about the future that turn out to be wildly optimistic.

The top super-computer in 2010 is about 500x as powerful as the top one in 2000, if not more. Get in touch with reality.

netrin

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Mt. Gox Bitcoin May to today (late July 2011) vs.
Nasdaq Composite 1994 to 2008

da2ce7

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Live and Let Live

Quote from: evoorhees on July 21, 2011, 12:36:53 AM

I would imagine that a singularity such as what Kurzweil describes would require a new monetary system to exponentially increase the efficiency of trade - by an order of magnitude at least. Bitcoin surely satisfies that criteria.

Hey... maybe Satoshi really was an AI and it created Bitcoin to start the singularity. Like the match in the kindling?! Oh gosh!! Grin

yeah... I have often wondered...

Topic: The Dichotomy Of a Bubble - Why Bitcoin Will Endure (Read 17448 times)