Question for the Speculators... (experiment)

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: 1Referee on December 26, 2019, 04:49:26 PM

The IEO hype was kinda similar, it just turned out to be a flop much sooner, where ICO's had around 1.5 years to thrive. The only good thing about that is the fact that fewer people fell victim to their own greed and shitty nature of the projects.

that's easy enough to explain: the IEO phenomenon emerged during a bear market and hasn't coincided with a bubble.

bitcoin investors have always been obsessed with securities investment. in 2012 and 2013, we had things like bitcoin savings & trust, havelock investments, asicminer stocks. NXT then brought forth the ICO model and ethereum popularized it. then came the 2017 ICO bubble and IEOs after that.

so IEOs might have their day yet. otherwise i wonder what the next fundraising model will be. something is gonna get hyped the same way during the next bubble. crypto investors are simply too greedy for me to assume otherwise.

1Referee

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Quote from: atjiat on December 26, 2019, 02:16:02 PM

But People already took advantage of short-term investments in 2016 and 2017, when they bought tokens of new projects during preliminary sales, with 50 percent bonuses, and immediately after listing they sold these tokens three or four times more expensive.

I'm actually more of believe that the insiders and people behind the projects were dumping.

I'm sure there have also been short term flippers having made a sweet initial profit, but most of the noobs who bought into projects really believed they were going to change the world. Tokens that are going to change the world are kept for the very long term, which a lot people did and lost a lot of money with. Retailers have been rekt hard and won't touch this crap again any time soon.

The IEO hype was kinda similar, it just turned out to be a flop much sooner, where ICO's had around 1.5 years to thrive. The only good thing about that is the fact that fewer people fell victim to their own greed and shitty nature of the projects.

teosanru

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Quote from: Pipdips on December 06, 2019, 01:53:29 PM

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA. They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum. So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be? Big lose? or Big win?

Better luck finding investors for your experiment because from my experience I can tell you the whole account will be burnt in half the time that's on your mind. Moreover to make it interesting let's even give him liberty to see charts use TA FA(being a new trader he will learn it side by side) and still the result won't really vary the whole account will still be burnt in similar number of days. Thing is that every person who has become a successful trader has made atleast one account complete zero. This is like paying a fees to learn trading. Wise are those who lose lesser amount. Some are still burning their accounts on daily basis 😂

Quote from: El duderino_ on December 22, 2019, 11:11:10 AM

Quote from: Pipdips on December 06, 2019, 01:53:29 PM

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA. They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum. So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be? Big lose? or Big win?

Millions and millions if the person in question would just HODL Roll Eyes

Where are you living in? Kingdom of fantasy trading? There is no HODL in trading and trust me HODL blindly has never been profitable using this as your strategy. You need to find the absolute right share or coin which could potentially grow big and yes you are not provided with fundamental or technical analysis so how do you expect to find coin to HODL?

Silberman

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Quote from: adaseb on December 22, 2019, 02:16:13 AM

Quote from: darkangel11 on December 21, 2019, 07:54:43 PM

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

Where did you get these statistics? I don't know what the statistics are for Crypto but I am assuming its like most other financial markets out there like Forex or Stock trading.

Basically when it comes to retail traders, something like 95% lose money and something like less than 1% are able to day trade and call it a living. The other smaller 5% or so most likely are either retired or they got a day job and just do it on the side. But the sad fact is that 95% of them lose money and not just break-even.

Its zero-sum and you need someone to lose money for you to make money. Look at the Bitmex or Bitfinex leadership boards there, you will basically see 1 or 2 whales and 100-200 smaller retail people who are at a loss while the whales are at a huge gain. This is no different than banks or institutions making money while the average investor struggles.

This is the reality folks and if you choose to ignore it then you are doing it at your own risk, most investors and traders are long term losers, we get blinded by the results of the few winners because they are very vocal about it while the people that lose everything do not want to share their experience because they are ashamed of the mistakes they made, and even if they shared their experiences many people are going to choose to ignore them because they do not think that will happen to them.

atjiat

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Quote from: Genemind on December 25, 2019, 05:43:27 AM

They would surely lose something if they wouldn't be able to wait for the best time to sell. Short term investment wouldn't work well for now. There are coins that include Bitcoin which are good for a long term investment. Speculations might ruin our decisions so we might as well learn how to deal with the market.

Of course, short-term investments are very profitable for generating income in an active cryptocurrency market, when the entire cryptocurrency has good volatility and constantly fluctuates in price. Under such conditions, even daily trading can show very good trading. But People already took advantage of short-term investments in 2016 and 2017, when they bought tokens of new projects during preliminary sales, with 50 percent bonuses, and immediately after listing they sold these tokens three or four times more expensive. Of course, this very negatively affected the entire cryptocurrency market, and not just the projects themselves. Those who have made investments for the long term are still waiting for their profits.

Genemind

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They would surely lose something if they wouldn't be able to wait for the best time to sell. Short term investment wouldn't work well for now. There are coins that include Bitcoin which are good for a long term investment. Speculations might ruin our decisions so we might as well learn how to deal with the market.

daarul50

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Quote from: BitHodler on December 22, 2019, 02:17:45 PM

Quote from: daarul50 on December 22, 2019, 10:24:09 AM

even those people with a lot of experiences and high skills trader have a very low percentage to ended up with profit, the research say it all , mostly they claimed that less than 10% a trader can success making profit in the long run.

I think the problem with those people is that they try to make profit quick. No matter how long you have been trying to get trading to work for you, there simply isn't a way for you to make more profit than you have lost.

Most people make things worse for themselves by raising the stakes in an attempt to gain back what they have lost, but gamblers have been the prefect example in terms of exposing how dangerous revenge gambling really is.

People can't even get things working for themselves in the stock market they claim is very predictable. How on earth will they be able to have any success within crypto, a market that's truly unpredictable.

then we are agreed that people are impatient most of the times.

and that is one of the major factor makes them failed reaching the target to have a steady profit in trading. honestly i can not compare trading to how raising the stakes as a gambling, that is pretty much different. it is part of the strategy in money management though.

but here considering we are talking about speculation where i believe this kind behavior in trading is tend to a gambling.
indeed, things will never work out with that kind behavior.
nobody succeed through gambling, nobody succeed through trading with 100% pure speculation .

beerlover

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They would lose sooooo much money, you think that giving them 200 dollars to start they would be able to only lose 200 dollars and not more. I tell you if somehow they could find or learn a way to wager more than 200 dollars with their 200 dollars they will make a debt on money they don't have. Hell those dudes would spend from their credit cards and take out loans and find a way. They will keep losing and losing until they literally have absolutely no possession in their name.

This place is horrible for trading, speculation is literally a place where speculations are made by people with absolutely no filter at all, there is no requirements for you to be able to write here or even start a topic here. Most of the time you can see contradict topics back to back like "is btc going to 3k" and "is btc going to 50k" type of deals. This is the absolute last place to take a look at for this.

Theb

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Kiss that .01 BTC good bye since trading cryptocurrencies isn't really about following what others have been saying since you are just basically following them blindly without knowing if their analysis is accurate. Other than that traders need to be emotionally tough, supposed that what they have read is very accurate yet the trader isn't emotionally prepared for that trade he would be losing money because he/she can't stick to the trading plan. And have you seen the analysis here lately? Only a few members post proper analysis and others are only pure speculation or just FUD or FOMO without any kind of analysis whatsoever.

BitHodler

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Quote from: daarul50 on December 22, 2019, 10:24:09 AM

even those people with a lot of experiences and high skills trader have a very low percentage to ended up with profit, the research say it all , mostly they claimed that less than 10% a trader can success making profit in the long run.

I think the problem with those people is that they try to make profit quick. No matter how long you have been trying to get trading to work for you, there simply isn't a way for you to make more profit than you have lost.

Most people make things worse for themselves by raising the stakes in an attempt to gain back what they have lost, but gamblers have been the prefect example in terms of exposing how dangerous revenge gambling really is.

People can't even get things working for themselves in the stock market they claim is very predictable. How on earth will they be able to have any success within crypto, a market that's truly unpredictable.

El duderino_

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Quote from: Pipdips on December 06, 2019, 01:53:29 PM

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA. They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum. So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be? Big lose? or Big win?

Millions and millions if the person in question would just HODL Roll Eyes

Mahanton

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Quote from: Pipdips on December 06, 2019, 01:53:29 PM

What would happen if we took a new trader, somebody with zero knowledge at all, and I give them I dunno, .01 Bitcoins for free, for them to get started trading with. What is that, about $200 worth?

But here is the experiment. The experiment is to have them ONLY read this Speculator forum and nothing else is allowed. They are not allowed to use any charts, not allowed to learn TA or FA. They would just rely upon being just another bozo on the bus here at this Speculators forum. So: all of their trades would have to be based upon what they read at this subforum alone.

What would the outcome be? Big lose? or Big win?

No one knows but most of the time if he do follow those calls most of the time then for most chances he would really have those losing trades
yet anytime we do see these calls are usually shilling out stuffs which indicates on sell or accumulation.As mentioned that he doesnt have any knowledge
about TA and FA then it would be hard on just following any speculations yet you cant even justify if those are deserving to be followed.

daarul50

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the outcome will of course busted it all in the end .

in the short term they could gained some profits , it won't last for long. you know why? even those people with a lot of experiences and high skills trader have a very low percentage to ended up with profit, the research say it all , mostly they claimed that less than 10% a trader can success making profit in the long run.

that is the fact , if you insist to do so , please do it and tell us the result, we won't be surprised with the outcome Cheesy

alexsandria

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Well it would all depend on a stuff they are reading about. If they got to be able find a decent speculation which may be close to reality, it may result to may be big win or fair win. Otherwise would be a big lose, well, it is somehow obvious at some point because it is quite tough to go trading without any background, and you'll be doing right away in the hands of what have you read in speculation section.

stadus

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They'll never last with that 0.01 as their capital in trading if they only based on speculation in this thread or this forum only.
Every trader needs to have their own analysis as well as that would gear them to survive in this long term journey if they are looking for real success.

Relying on speculation alone is like gambling based on luck, it's not trading anymore.

1Referee

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Quote from: adaseb on December 22, 2019, 02:16:13 AM

Basically when it comes to retail traders, something like 95% lose money and something like less than 1% are able to day trade and call it a living. The other smaller 5% or so most likely are either retired or they got a day job and just do it on the side. But the sad fact is that 95% of them lose money and not just break-even.

People don't know what kind of trap day trading really is. If you stick to buy low sell high, where you don't mind waiting a few weeks or even a few months to sell higher, the percentage of people losing isn't +90% but much and much lower.

I have been into day trading myself and it's horrible not only from an ROI perspective, but also from a time perspective because staring at charts all day is such a waste of time. I barely came out of the house, only to do some grocery shopping. I wasted so much time on something so unproductive that I decided to call it a day and never day traded again.

I only take on positions when I see an opportunity (mostly based on pattern formations) and if there is nothing that interests me, I just don't do anything. I thus far made profit on most of the positions I took on. You enjoy life better if you don't day trade and thus not lose money.

Spaffin

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Quote from: darkangel11 on December 21, 2019, 07:54:43 PM

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

If we take into account the fact that the number of forum users has grown very much since 2015, then there is a really real explanation for this, that the cryptocurrency advertisement really worked and people came to the forum without any knowledge at all, but had confidence that cryptocurrency will make it possible to earn a lot of money. Thus, thanks to the information on the bitcointalk forum, many users became investors and traders, while acting only in a narrow direction and not developing comprehensively. Anyone who wants to improve their results will develop comprehensively and study various information from other sources, and not just focus on the forum. Although I agree with other users who claim that the bitcointalk forum has a fairly rich database of information not only for novice cryptocurrency users, but also for those who are trying to replenish their knowledge.

adaseb

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Quote from: darkangel11 on December 21, 2019, 07:54:43 PM

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

Where did you get these statistics? I don't know what the statistics are for Crypto but I am assuming its like most other financial markets out there like Forex or Stock trading.

Basically when it comes to retail traders, something like 95% lose money and something like less than 1% are able to day trade and call it a living. The other smaller 5% or so most likely are either retired or they got a day job and just do it on the side. But the sad fact is that 95% of them lose money and not just break-even.

Its zero-sum and you need someone to lose money for you to make money. Look at the Bitmex or Bitfinex leadership boards there, you will basically see 1 or 2 whales and 100-200 smaller retail people who are at a loss while the whales are at a huge gain. This is no different than banks or institutions making money while the average investor struggles.

gabmen

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Even if they're allowed to learn charts and basic TAs, a new trader won't really put that to good use since it'll take time and experience to be able to put that to practice efficiently. He'll likely learn basics and terminologies here but in order to be familiar with that he's reading and learning, he needs to put that to practice by making actual trades.

blckhawk

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I'd say that neither. We can't really predict since the his win or loss totally relies on pure chance or luck. And also depends on the timeframe. If he would go long-term, then chances are higher that he would gain due to the halving, but it's always not guaranteed. If he did go short-term, then there's higher chance he would lose more than he could earn.

Topic: Question for the Speculators... (experiment) (Read 576 times)