Topic: Question for the Speculators... (experiment) - page 2. (Read 576 times)

Most people will tell you that he'd lose money because that's the statistic. If you are able to make money on any market you're in the 20% of winners. If you're able to come out unscathed without losing money just going out with no profit or a very small loss you're in another 30%. The other 50% loses a lot and exits bitter.

If you had only the forum to read you'd probably make money, provided that you wouldn't panic. Most people here are bulls so you'd probably take a long from here.

Its not impossible, a person can just get lucky like any gamble out there.    People do stumble across low prices, go long and keep that position and do well.   Most would sell too early or some other mistake but no doubt some have done well over the years and managed to keep it.   But on average the deciding factor for successful trading would come down to available capital, reasonable management of that and time taken to properly observe and time participation.
   Others will argue in favour of leverage but the problem is that counts both for and against you, so you increase the knife edge of that time or price range you must be correct and its extremely hard to win on leverage unless already a champion trader.   I would say its basically about risked capital and people who trade are willing to pay the price so are committed to the pursuit not just hoping to pay very little and get a big pay off because thats so unlikely for most of us still which much to learn.
  I hate to say it but the easiest thing to do is identify when the market could be depressed and now is one of those times, dont use leverage and just go long.  Thats it, your trade is simple and open.   If you dont dive into the white waters of hyper markets then its possible to gain a better value from the depressed price.    I'm personally thinking the base price for BTC is over these few months but it might take the entire duration of 2020 to work out, a few too many are OTT on halvening so a lull after that event would relate for me to my prior experience and so expectations.

That will be a great experiment but unfortunately I think that such person is going to lose everything in a matter of months but that is way better than the results that he will get if he based his decisions on the altcoins speculation forum in which case I think he will lose all his money in a week, trading requires a very precise set of skills, knowledge and experience in order to have any chance of being profitable and if you do not have that eventually you are going to lose.

You did not mention if he’s going to day trade or hodl long term. If he day trade his chances to win would be very slim however if he hold it for long term, he has higher chance of making gains even if he bought Bitcoin at higher price.

I would speculate that our new trader will be losing the money big time. What I know is that successful traders are using all the available tools and strategies at his/her disposal, and they are not limited to only one tool that they can use anytime. There has never been any history or any claim that anyone here in this forum made a lot of money in trading just reading here and nothing else. That can be a very risky proposition but it would be exciting to see it happen, that is if there will be someone willing to shoulder the required amount of Bitcoin as capital. I doubt anybody would agree here to carry the cost. But thanks for suggesting you are adding more colors to the forum.

If you give capital to a noob to do routine trading and read the market relying only on the Speculation thread. I'm sure it only burns money. Because Rarely pro traders who give there speculation here. I am not saying that all the speculations written here are useless, only it would be better if it did not rely on treads here and used many sources to predict future market prices to be more accurate.

In order to become a trader, people need to continuously learn to improve their knowledge, besides a trader also needs many qualities such as confidence, emotional mastery and many other things. This forum is a great place to learn about bitcoin as well as the cryptocurrency market, but that is not enough to turn a new person into a trader.
If you give the money to a new trader and ask him to start trading, I think 90% he will lose all that money.

I guess the chances are mostly on the trader losing the BTC. Trading ain't really that easy and well, most of the posts here in speculation are actually analysis of movements already done. People with no knowledge of trading learn not from the result, but rather the process. Besides, even if he questioned people here, each and every one of us actually has a different trading plan being followed so I doubt any answer could possibly be helpful to him/her.
This is in the case of short term experiment though. In the long term, ngl, no need to view this forum. Just leave it there and wait a year, that should work out quite fine.

0.01 BTC is worth about $75 now but yeah I think the experiment would show that most of them would lose that amount -- but no different from most other supposedly trained traders these days. I mean, I've entered so-called expert/whale signal channels myself in the past (sue me, I was a n00b too) and with supposedly years of experience and skill behind them. You know what? They all did super well in 2017. And then did spectacularly shitty in 2018. I even PAID in Q1 2018 to see the premium channels myself and the founder actually told me it was literally the worst month for me to join. I just laughed and said fool me once shame on you.

Anyway, the experiment would depend on which threads get bumped up though, no? How would they pick which to follow?

I doubt its possible. Most discussions here in the Speculations are about the recent dumps and pumps, and there isn't much news regarding sideways movement like what we are currently experiencing right now. Plus, there's also the decision of whether the trader is investing in a long or short term one. Honestly, I doubt anyone has no idea what traders do. They should know by the term itself what they generally do, and should be able to come up with at the very least the most basic plan a trader could come up with and follow that. So, It isn't really a big win nor a big lose, speculation is also filled with luck after all, so no result in the end.
It would be a lot better if a simulation was done where the results are predetermined already, makes the test or experiment a lot more viable.

hmm ...
tend to lose i guess , because like u say before , all of what he need for trading just from this forum , knowledge , speculation, prediction is from people on this forum .
and i am sure mostly price prediction just a wishfull think.
but that will be different if he have a attitude to watch and see for a while.

If that newbie trader will always see the comments of others saying simply holding the bitcoin he has then he'll get to win. But the bitcoin he has is free so basically he wouldn't care if it will be at lose.

So, this kind of situational problems doesn't make sense for me. As expected, a newbie would find it difficult to follow strategy being taught to him because he lacks of experience.

I studied TA myself and never learned from people, because I learned from experience that is the most important thing in my opinion, if they are new traders given capital and start trading just reading this speculation thread I think it's still lacking and of course there will be more losing money, because actually what they read on the speculation thread here should be an additional insight not the main lesson, the real lesson is when they try to trade and from that experience will teach them many things

To be honest, I sometimes don't believe in people drawing analysis charts that are really smart, logically in the world of crypto trading charts are usually formed because of traders, so which stupid traders want to spend their time following the prices on charts, I don't think there's time for that. , not the same as we analyze like in forex, crypto is unpredictable and still needs time to make many traders more mature in using analysis, everything is still out of control

OP, why don't you experiment with this winning strategy, zoom out, then Buy the dip, and HODL.

This is actually a pretty good experiment. Give someone some capital and just counter-trade them. Most likely if you give them $1000 they will lose it and you can make that $1000 or multiples more if you just use more leverage.

Most new traders basically make good trades but they take profit way too early. So most likely they will have many $50 or $100 profit trades and they will have either 2 trades that are $500 losses or one trade which is a $1000 loss and run out of money.

Basically what the pros are doing, they let their winners run while keeping their losses small and that's how they survive for years while others quit.

If they're smart, they will break the rules and learn how to trade. That's what I'd do if someone gave me a couple hundred bucks to build from. I built my entire trading career from a $160 buy-in many years ago.

Of course the losing part have the larger possibility than having a win.
If he did win, then let us say it is some beginners luck.
Or he could be reading a so much here in this forum for him to see when to sell or buy in the right moment.

It could also be the lab rat is too patient to wait for a good pump for him to win.
But to summarize it, everything cannot be learned here. You must first experience it and also some losses which is not bad if it is for knowledge.

experimenting with $ 50 / $ 200 and only depends on speculation in this forum? for the spot market they will not lose too much, but if they are disciplined and only hold on one thread of speculation, the possibility of profit can occur because they do not emotionally conduct personal experiments with short target time intervals. The experimental results will be different if they use leverage, minimal capital is only enough to shorten the liquidation distance, the movement of the graph will be faster than the comments here, it is likely to fail.

Come to think the scenario when you starting up did you struggle to make your first trade right? since for sure they will to and they will surely lose on their trading attempts since they don't know what they are doing and also if  they win maybe they  are lucky but I think they will be eaten by their greed to trade more since I will assume they will  aim for more bigger gains on the next trade. And it's really better if they have an information on the forum since event though sometimes it's misleading but for sure they will learn from it.

No I think they could be successful with a blindfold strategy so long as they did the opposite of what consensus thread titles or even content appeared with.    So without TA they cant really be buying on less then daily bars or 1 buy or sell per day and basically be swing traders.    When threads are mostly gloomy, look to take a long bias trade and when everyone is mentioning half a million dollars per Bitcoin its time to take profits.
   If somehow they could be reading the crowd sentiment quite well via thread sentiment it could probably become profitable, when gloom is apparent and also price is negative for some time then you have a double negative.   Multiple two negative numbers and you will find a positive, theres some logic to be found amongst the chaos of the crowd.