like a media-hype because journalists realize @$30 that bitcoin somehow survived?
This will be really significant, because one of the supposed ways in which you can retroactively define something as a "bubble" (or ponzi) is that, after bursting, it does not recover for a very long time (if at all). So if Bitcoin were to retake the 30s anytime soon, it would forcibly shut up and discredit anyone using (or who has used) ad-hominems like "bubble" or "ponzi" to attack it.
1 year
is a very very long time in bitcoinland.
The current rally isn't a "recovery" from the June 2011 bubble, but a new phenomenon altogether. The fundamentals driving the price are completely different this time, as are the traders. My guess is that most people who speculated in the June 2011 bubble have long cashed out and forgotten about bitcoin, and are not coming back, at least not until the "late majority" and "laggard" phases.
"it is different this time" is often heard during speculative opportunities. stereotypical statement for sure.
quote
A major characteristic of speculative bubbles
is the lack of ways to correctly value the underlying asset. Many bubbles, such as the technology bubble of the late 1990s, develop and grow due to giant expectations of the future success or appreciation of the
often-misunderstood asset.
"So it is natural to expect that an
information cascade is especially likely to develop in response to a genuinely new and different investment opportunity, one that is
completely outside the realm of most investors’ personal experience. And this is exactly what is happening when we hear talk about new industries and new technologies that promise to revolutionize the economy (ibid. 48)."
unquote
fun fun fun
quote
"Affirmative messages that build crowd unity are not usually appeals to the intellect of crowd members. Instead they are appeals to emotion, to stereotypes, to dreams or fears. The language of persuasion and crowd solidarity is the language of drama, not science (ibid. 56)."
unquote
