Topic: Rally from $500 happened on very low volume, crash looming? - page 2. (Read 11045 times)

Current trend looks like its playing exactly as explained by Drew on trading view: https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSmoerF3/

I've been feeling like this since the start of the weekend, this rally has no more steam left, the late comers to the party have had their 'new money' released onto the exchanges and we are having a last gasp attempt at pushing up, all the media hype has been exhausted, the 6 month break from Aprils ATH built up pressure and we had to release it, but it feels like its expended now.

I would be really surprised if we don't end up the way that chart has predicted.

Cool! I have a website registered on my name, but the blog format imho is not as good as a forum. I will perhaps still put it online in comments-disabled mode where I (my editor) polish the threads/articles from this forum in the easily digestible mode. I mean, this forum is very organic food but therefore contains also joints, sinews, bones and whatnot.

In addition is my thinktank group, which has several interested people but is not organized yet.

Also my supernode has been disabled since May, but when that comes back online, oh boy 

I actually started reading ALL your posts 2 days ago. And doing some background checks on you.

There is very much logic in my writings, but in order to follow it, you have to spend 30 minutes per day just by following and thinking about me. Because most people are unwilling to do it, they only get a part of the message, and it is dangerous to act upon incomplete logic.

Just haven't found a way to do it any other way  Even if I write very perfect guides on all things Bitcoin, I cannot make people follow every aspect of them, and the result will be in their hand anyway.

I think you're susceptible to loosing most of your bitcoins if you daytrade them. What do you mean a strong sell is 30%? That's loosing more!

Sorry for me, because the flashcrash buyback was about $820, and I sold at $672, therefore lost money on that trade irrevocably.

Sorry for those who do not understand that a strong sell with bitcoin means to sell 30% of your holdings and a weak sell is 10% (as opposed to stocks where sell means sell all, and strong sell is go short).

lol, you are sorry :-)

That's probably because China doesn't read these forums.

market is strong at  this  point I feel it, much stronger than back than in 800 range.
Tomorrow rally 10-20%

if not I am selling some, cause I am getting out of touch

Important thing is that it refused to be pricked, and bounced straight back from $800 (bitstamp), which has become a strong support. The probability that it will be breached (for anything more but a flashcrash, maximum) has strongly diminished.

Gox also held well.

But who had a look at BTC China? It refused to be manipulated at all! The spread between China and Bitstamp went to +20% due to stamp crashing, whereas both the day before and after it was close to 0%. China is providing so immense liquidity that it has changed the game totally.

The weekend was the best opportunity for taking the price down, and all tricks were pulled, but it seems to have just proven that the $1,000 level is legitimate. It is a nice, round figure, and fundamentals and exponential trends are soon catching it. The lacking volume in these prices, which was my concern, and the topic of this thread, has feen fulfilled.

I am sorry if my bearish call in Nov 19 was misinterpreted as an exhortation to sell all, or even half of anyone's holdings. With bitcoin, most of the holdings should be in cold storage and the rest diversified to other forms of wealth according to a predetermined plan, for example the SSS plan.

bitcointalk was hacked, paswords leaked, as was confirmed by bitcointalk itself. also gox down due to excessive traffic or ddos, and most tickers down / overloaded. it did seem orchestrated.

traderCJ, speculation though is really easy once you get used to peculiarities. For one, market is in a constant uptrend, so you just have some orders ready to pick up corrections, and sell a little at local tops. As for predicting where the price would go today, good luck with that in any market.

Ok, do you have ANYTHING to back that up? Bitcointalk seems more likely to have gone down due to excessive traffic, which wouldn't be strange in a panic sellout. And the "bogus list" was obviously a joke. This post just seems overly paranoid to me.

Oh brother.  The "correction" on Sunday was orchestrated.  Whales dumped, that bogus list of addresses was released, bitcointalk was hacked so people couldn't get a reality check, weak hands saw the tickers bleeding red, and panic sold.  I don't think it was anything more than that.  Of course, these events spook the market and we'll probably be parked in this range for a week or so.  Like it or not, ALL investments are at the whims of mass psychology, especially with an instrument like this which evades normal pricing models.  Whenever someone says they're sure something is about to happen in this market, I know they're full of it.  Unless you're the whale making the dumps, a hacker about to raise hell or working for an exchange and can see the $ moving in and out you're guessing like everyone else.  The worst thing someone can do is attribute luck to skill.  Most of the people here who have made it big did so by offering bitcoin-related services and buying + holding, certainly not from accurate speculation from what I can tell.

I have to say that I don't know where the exchange rate is going. Every day above $1,000 strengthens that as a new base, and:

1. We might have a period of relative stability for days, weeks or even many weeks (see 2010: fast runups followed by plateaus).

2. We can also go overdrive, followed by the real crash.

3. If we go south from here, there seems to be a lot of support and $500 can only be achieved by not letting buy orders in while enabling sell orders (an insidious trick from Mt.Gox in April 12). Not breaking the weekend low ($800) is a sign on confidence, otoh breaking it can lead to flashcrash towards $700 but hardly lower since the exchanges are full of fiat.

This is different than a blowoff top scenario (numbered #2 above), where price rises faster than new fiat can be pumped in to the exchanges and when the crash comes, all fiat in the exchanges belongs to the sellers who are unwilling to buy except at much lowered prices.

Can't give any percentages right now 

All figures can be downloaded from Bitcoincharts.



During the flashcrash, I net increased my BTC position by about 80,000mBTC. Still well prepared to any scenario. (Is there anyone else that handles position management professionally/systematically (as opposed to feeling-based)?)

Also I increased my total position by abt 15,000mBTC, learning how to arbitrage. I am getting better at it. Roni is having a work trip in China/Thailand so I handle the desk myself. Now I am also in the position to buy/sell large amounts internationally with hefty commissions to those who do not trust or cannot use exchanges. Customer sends first. $50k/BTC50 min.

so, have you sold some BTC, rpietilla?

Buy and hold strategy does not lend itself to "standing on the wrong side of a brutal correction."

Rptelia got this correction correct. Hats off to him. It was a unique one, a trickle that turned into a stream. Lot of nerves and selling pressure coupled with no new money on the weekend. I'll be the first to say that this might have follow through, although I'll be surprised if we go below 5000 CYN and 700-750 on Gox.

Does it feel like doom and gloom to you?  All I see is good news in the media (one of the #1 reasons have been such a bull) and less and less panic in the streets when the market goes down. In fact, people seemed to watch today with amusement instead of fear.

That being said, there seems to be a lack of confidence at these altitudes and maybe bitcoin has run it's course in this rally.

Or maybe we will be back near the top in a day or two.

Followed this and read through much of the thread, with all the usual derision coming from the perma-bulls whose opinions are based on nothing more than wish fulfilment.

It seems that just one day later, your prediction has come to light. Perhaps not a mega-crash, but certainly a brutal correction that nobody wants to be standing on the wrong side off.

Interesting to see a forecast on these pages based on actual numbers and trends, as opposed to fantasies of avarice or sour grapes of having missed the boat. Where is there public access to those figures that you have posted?

The best time for a crash is sunday night. Nothing better then waking up Monday morning with fresh fiat and cheap coins.

This is the question I keep asking myself every day, and yet here we are.

If $200 is the maximum downside, why is not all the money in the world buying bitcoins just now, and why is anyone selling at any price? 

I believe we will see -75% crash again. The one 2 weeks back was -50%.