At any rate, if price goes up quickly, it makes sellers hesitant to sell, buyers even more anxious to buy, the price go up even more quickly, and when it has gone to parabolic (defined by roughly 50-100% increase in 72 hours), it will crash. There is no going around this.
That pretty much is the only thing missing in your crash picture--rapidly ascending price, we are now stalling and flucutating.
6.3% per day over the last 27 days is rapid, but it is not blowoff.
We actually did hit my blowoff trigger event Monday last week, that is why I sold. The price later corrected down -50% (in all exchanges but different times), but it was not yet the beginning of a prolonged cooling period.
I highly doubt that the next one will be a false alarm. It is possible that we go to $2k or $3k before the crash, but remember that with the current ascent (6.3% over X days and then 60% over the final 3 days), we will hit:
$2,000 in Dec 4th
$3,000 in Dec 11th
$4,000 in Dec 15th.
So:
1. Either we will have to slow down and have a sideways correction (which can possibly result in a crash when people realize that the rise has stopped and they are sitting on huge gains several times the ATH of one month ago, and technical indicators are going sour etcetc. somebody pulls the trigger first: manipulators, China, shorters, whales, traders, panickers, SSS subscribers; but buyers will not pick up because
coins at $1,000 are not cheap and even if they were, it takes such a number of dollars to absorb them at these levels that it just does not happen)
2. Or we continue this "stalling" with 6.3% daily ascent until we hit either $2k, $3k or $4k before Christmas, and then crash legendarily to sub-$1,000 when all the forces outlined in (1.) - and then some - conflate.
Humankind's greatest disability is the lack of understanding of exponential function.I understand the paranoia of a crash- certainly I am nervous myself, but this time around it really feels like the infrastructure is doing a much better job of keeping up with the speculation. We went from 1 major conference a year to what seems like weekly bitcoin meet ups and events all over the place. I came home to the us to find everyone I know talking about bitcoin. Asking me about it, and pitching ideas for it.
Of course it's a bubble, but you have to consider as well we might be really starting to fulfill a niche. Speculation is now less speculative, (prior to April there was no china, no Chinese governments tacit approval, no us senate hearings with that sounded like the government was not interested in letting some non-us company get a lead in crypto)
So I think is price reflects a growing certainty about the future. We probably don't even need to be fueled by press coverage for that much longer. It would be enough to enter themainstream to to start slow steady growth.
I know a crash is in the future, but perhaps by then so many peoplew I'll be trying to get in that it will only serve to further the frenzy.