Topic: Raoul Pal - Bitcoins to hit one million dollars and warns about US depression (Read 287 times)

The latest thread from Raoul Pal after BTC tested $10K today: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1258567633168932874


His first target: $400,000
Second target: $1 million

This is the "technical break" he's talking about:



I'm skeptical, but after living through 2 bubbles I won't say it's impossible.

There is really nothing you can do to stop these people because they get a microphone and you don't, so they will say whatever they want and they will get some news and some attention.

However what you can do is exactly this, whenever you see news like this in place you could basically just warn everyone that this person could very well be wrong and why they are wrong. Bitcoin could hit one million dollars that is not a joke but not right now and probably not anytime soon neither, that could happen on a very very very long period of time. I can see bitcoin being a million dollars probably 10-15 years from now, that would be realistic, probably in two in three decades which would be more guaranteed. But even with that knowledge I wouldn't guarantee it, I would say its probably but not definite.

Don't rule it out. A lot can happen in 5 years. The crazy Bitcoiner in me thinks central banks could enter the picture as well, with BTC becoming a reserve asset eventually.


No more bubbles? Unlikely. Until mass adoption has actually occurred, it'll remain a very speculative market.

There is no further details to his claim and his speculation is basically coming from his own opinion only so we cannot really trust it. If he can further put a good evidence to his claim like how he concluded that US is currently in depression then we can say that his speculation about the bitcoin price will be a little bit genuine.

But considering the event, I am sure that he is not aware to his basis and only put that prediction base on the past prediction by other big personalities. I am not really sure if Gold can be used to predict the bitcoin price and as you can see 1m$ bitcoin price is a very long journey even if we can have 2 bull season within 5 years.

So this is the new John McAfee,I guess.
This guy thinks that trillions of dollars will be invested in Bitcoin for the next 5 years.Why?
Will retail merchants accept BTC payments?Nope.Will the average Joe abandon all his credit/debit cards and setup a BTC wallet+buying some Bitcoins?I don't think so.The only way for pumping the Bitcoin price that high is to create a huge price bubble with the help of institutional investors-banks,hedge funds,corporations.
Don't get me wrong.I want the Bitcoin price to go as high as possible,but let's be realistic.I want this to happen in a stable and predictable way,due to the mass BTC adoption and not via price bubbles&speculation.

Most people overestimate Bitcoin's sell side liquidity. Past bubbles have been marked by exchange supply drying up. There is no limit to the upside when nobody is selling and demand is surging.

"Easily" $1,000,000 within 5 years? Someone might demand that you cut the familiy jewels for that. Haha.

Although, I can see 6 figures within 5 years. The fudsters will only wish that we believed them, to cry with them.

It's strange to think but these economists from US and China still think like nothing else happens outside their borders. And to be fair, when they're living in and feeling the effects of their economies, perhaps macro doesn't really impact them personally. Still, nothing is going to be f*cked the way Bitcoin maximalists dream of. Trust me, we won't be starving the way our grandparents were. I'm talking about us here online able to chat in a "great depression".

Let us all asume that the depression is predicted just for the US dollar because of the corona virus and i think he forgot the fact that the situation is not better elsewhere around the globe, the European economy will be affected as well as all the developing countries is struggling to cope up with the situation and one thing is certain we will have a global recession. The study is full of flaws just taking into consideration that only the US economy will be doomed after the pandemic.

If the situation he and others posit becomes true (the fiat, banking, economic system is fucked and goes to hell), then sure. Bitcoin could hit 1 million USD. But if we're thinking about a future like that, then it's not impossible to foresee a 1,000% inflation for USD in say, 5 years. So, relatively speaking, that 1 million dollars is only worth $100k today. Sure, it makes sense.

Well what do I know? I'm just another armchair economist.

I'm sure Raoul Pal's analysis goes much deeper than mine. My basic idea is that both liquidity crises and deflation represent strong downward pressures on commodity prices. Maybe he views debt deflation depressions as different than other depressions, and believes they have a different effect on money commodities vs. food commodities and productive commodities. I'm not sure.

This analysis and a few others have been influential for me: https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/04/deflation-gold-prices/

He considers these factors to be mid-term bearish for gold:

• The shutdowns are eating into savings and wealth. Diminished disposable capital and rising debt will hurt demand.
• Deflation has historically been bad for gold.
• Dollar funding stress from disrupted cash flows means a stronger dollar, which also typically means weaker gold prices.
• Previous divergences between oil and gold have ended with a decline in gold prices.

Interesting...so you think that gold would be weak as well? It is quite possible.
Re Raoul Pal: yes, exactly, if dollar is strong, why btc and especially gold be strong as well?

He posted a very in depth Twitter thread today elaborating on his theory, which is basically: depression, strong US dollar, strong gold, strong BTC. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1254110879479746562

Regarding the early signs of depression and the technical case for a strong USD, the signs are definitely there. What I'm less confident about is his theory about mid-term strength in gold and BTC. On one hand he expects the flight to dollar liquidity to strengthen the dollar. On the other hand he expects that to positively affect gold and BTC, which is counterintuitive to me.

Let's use 2008 as a model. A few days after Bear Stearns was bailed out in March, gold topped and DXY bottomed on the same day (March 17th). Very strong negative correlation throughout 2008. Strong dollar = weak gold.





Like 2008-2009, I would expect gold to rally in the recovery stage, not the initial demand shock stage. BTC is probably in a similar boat, given that it correlates better to gold than stocks over the long term.

I think he's reading too much into short term gold price action. There has been a huge scarcity of physical gold since the shutdowns forced significant miners and smelters to stop production. I think this condition is temporary, and also why gold and BTC have diverged so much recently.

Anybody can look at the report (The Unfolding) for free, by providing a name and email address.

That said, he made a cardinal mistake there of mixing short term and long term calls in one piece.
Short term calls did not pan out (at all), which makes his long term calls (which could be right) less credible.

The main long term call is that we would have a Depression II with waves of liquidation happening, strong dollar and bullish gold and btc.
Regarding stocks, the graphs are eerily similar to GDI so far, I admit that, but the future is less clear due to massive programs that were enacted already (within a month) while in GDI they were put into place 3 years after it all started. There is no paucity of cash, either, with all that brrr.
So far fed was able to put everything on pause with a bullish tint. Will we still be higher in 4-5 mo (the duration of GDI rebound rally)? Maybe.
In 12 mo? Maybe not.
After that-can't say.

It can be found here. You can read it for free if you hand over an email address - https://www.realvision.com/gmi

Normally they charge for the stuff they publish I think. If you're a chart fan it'll make you cream your knickers.

I did a search for his twitter account ---> https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI, and I did not find any report on such a prediction. Can anyone confirm that he said this analysis or are they just passing discussions?

I think that the news reports such news should differentiate between expectations based on analytical predictions and discussion with rich investors, they are their words and do not necessarily mean that they may happen, especially if the arguments based on them are weak.

People are buying because it's a relief rally and there is still a lot of optimism in the market. They see a steep discount vs. last year's prices, or they sold into the crash and are chasing the price back up.

But what if we're actually in the blow-off phase?



My original model for this crisis was the 1987 crash. That served well in the recovery. However since the pandemic is worsening and there are growing signs of deflation, it's worth looking at the 1929-1932 crash. The initial drop and 2-month bull trap retracement are very similar to the current market:



Now we are clearly in different circumstances given the Fed's unlimited QE and the Treasury's money printing, but the idea is something to consider.


I can easily see $1 million in 5 years, especially if the market just wicks to that price in another bubble.

In the next year or three, I don't know how this pandemic will play out. It could be stagflation, which would be bullish for BTC. Or it could be depression, which would probably be bearish.

Plus it will not matter how much you bought Bitcoin, because within 10 years, HODLING as much of it as you can afford, WILL make you look like a briliant investing/market wizard.

The issue right now is all the money that the fed is printing and how it leads to huge inflation. Hence why people are buying stocks because their cash is going to become worth less in the near future.

With bitcoin and its halving coming up its the complete opposite of cash. So I believe him in that regard. However the $1 million price point is just out of hand even in 5 years. I think if we even hit 6 figures that will be considered a great price.

Right now we just need to break the ATH set in 2017 and then the retail market should start to invest and the price will accelerate quickly.

If you stop focusing on BTC as a mechanism for price appreciation, you might see it just trades one pox for another. History shows clearly the gold standard doesn't prevent brutal economic depressions. It's widely accepted among economists that ending the gold standard is why the US got out of the Great Depression when it did.

A few halvings from now, Bitcoin supply will be much more fixed than even gold. Can you imagine national currencies having a fixed peg to BTC? The deflationary possibilities are terrifying. People don't start businesses when there is no possibility of economic growth, and they stop spending money on anything besides bare essentials. In such a scenario, I could see economies swinging back and forth between stagnation and depression, with no prospects for growth. With a growing population, you can probably imagine how this becomes increasingly problematic over time.

I don't know what the ideal solution is on the Keynesian vs. Austrian spectrum, but I don't believe we will go back to fixed commodity standards that facilitate deflation. If we do, the next Great Depression will surely convince people the erosion of stability is not worth it.

In that sense, BTC primarily is and will always be seen as a tool for personal enrichment, not so much as a form of currency, and definitely not as a global reserve currency itself. It will just provide people who have already amassed wealth a way to hedge it. It's like gold in a vault, not spending money. Of course, this doesn't solve the actual problem of economic stability and reserve currencies.