Real total supply | Bitcointalksearch.org

hazenyc

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Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on June 20, 2021, 02:07:28 PM

Quote from: hazenyc on June 20, 2021, 12:04:41 PM

How do they actually calculate the number of lost coins? Are they just looking at what tx outputs seem to be idle for a very long time or do they have a rationale that they base their argument on?

Pretty much as you said - just coins which haven't been moved in a long time. To say that all coins which haven't been moved in >5 years are lost is wildly inaccurate at best. We see coins which haven't moved in over 5 years being transacted all the time, and we've seen messages being signed from address holding coins which haven't moved in over a decade, proving that they are not lost either.

The only coins which are provably lost and can be subtracted from the maximum supply are those which miners failed to claim in the first place, the 50 coins from the genesis block which cannot be spent, and those sent to OP_RETURN outputs. I am aware of about 130 BTC lost in the first of those categories, and about 27 BTC currently sent to OP_RETURN outputs, meaning the total amount of provably burned bitcoin is only around 200 BTC.

You could relatively safely include all bitcoin sent to obvious burner addresses, but once you start including coins which are inactive or you think belong to Satoshi, then your estimates become increasingly inaccurate.

That is exactly what I thought. Just from the stories that you hear here and there, the probability that the lost coins are in the very low millions is relatively high. I remember a story of a guy who lost 70,000 on a hard drive I think, and another with 30,000. So even while this is wild speculation, it is likely that people did indeed throw away hard drives with Bitcoin on them. Then again you can't even verify if these guys just wanted a nice article in the newspaper about them.

But if you think about those losing Bitcoin, it is hard to conceive of the circumstances how that could have happened. If someone is literate enough to set up mining operations during Bitcoin's early days, those people probably knew relatively early on that there was a market for Bitcoin. Why would someone just throw a hard drive out the window with Bitcoin on there? I don't know.

But I fully agree with what you said in regards to coins not being moved >5 years are most likely lost. That is certainly nonsense.

thecodebear

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Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

If we subtract Satoshi’s 1 million BTC (as Plan B does in his STF2X model), should we also subtract the ~4 million BTC estimated to have been lost?

So that would make total supply around 16 million BTC. Some of these have a private key that is encrypted and the password forgotten, whereas others have lost the private key entirely, like the hard drive lost at the rubbish tip in Manchester in 2013 with a key for 800BTC on it. So the former will eventually be able to be brute-forced in coming decades when quantum computers can be accessed. But the lost keys are lost forever.

i'd be careful not to overestimate the number of lost bitcoin. Seems like people like to just assume any coins that haven't been moved since like 2012 or 2013 are lost, when that is clearly not the case. Proven by the fact that someone has for the past couple years been occasionally moving large amounts of bitcoin that haven't moved since 2010/2011. I forget the details but it has happened several times the past couple years. I generally assume maybe at 1.5-2 million, plus Satoshi's presumed 1 million, have been lost. This number of lost bitcoin will always increase by small amounts though because people will always unexpectedly die without having made arrangements for bitcoin they had in cold storage and no one will ever get access to them. Bitcoin is deflationary forever.

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Quote from: joniboini on June 20, 2021, 04:31:59 PM

Quote from: Lee_Mire on June 20, 2021, 03:30:26 PM

I think the amount of accessible bitcoin is far less than 16 million. I would go as far as to say the amount is probably half of that. You cannot imagine how many coins have been lost over the years.

It would be great if you can present some data instead of some inaccurate guess. There's a post up there that you can use to filter transaction data, so you can research on your own. Without something like that, your argument that only half of the supply is left can be easily rebuked by saying something along the line of "you cannot imagine how many coins are not lost over the years even if people believe they are".

As this guy makes such substantial claims it would definitely be necessary to see some evidence backing his claims up. I don't think half is lost. From the reports I read the number four million seems to be about right although it is very hard to estimate even for companies with the tools to investigate that question technically.

One big fraction of that amount might be Satoshis coins alone and nobody knows where he or she or they is or are and whether those people are still alive. SCW did file another lawsuit I think but by now nobody believes him anymore.

Anyway, the number is hard to estimate, but more Bitcoins are most likely going to be lost in the future (death, etc), making Bitcoin truly deflationary.

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Quote from: Lee_Mire on June 20, 2021, 03:30:26 PM

I think the amount of accessible bitcoin is far less than 16 million. I would go as far as to say the amount is probably half of that. You cannot imagine how many coins have been lost over the years.

It would be great if you can present some data instead of some inaccurate guess. There's a post up there that you can use to filter transaction data, so you can research on your own. Without something like that, your argument that only half of the supply is left can be easily rebuked by saying something along the line of "you cannot imagine how many coins are not lost over the years even if people believe they are".

Lee_Mire

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Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

If we subtract Satoshi’s 1 million BTC (as Plan B does in his STF2X model), should we also subtract the ~4 million BTC estimated to have been lost?

So that would make total supply around 16 million BTC. Some of these have a private key that is encrypted and the password forgotten, whereas others have lost the private key entirely, like the hard drive lost at the rubbish tip in Manchester in 2013 with a key for 800BTC on it. So the former will eventually be able to be brute-forced in coming decades when quantum computers can be accessed. But the lost keys are lost forever.

I think the amount of accessible bitcoin is far less than 16 million. I would go as far as to say the amount is probably half of that. You cannot imagine how many coins have been lost over the years.

Fortify

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on June 20, 2021, 05:07:15 AM

Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

So that would make total supply around 16 million BTC. Some of these have a private key that is encrypted and the password forgotten, whereas others have lost the private key entirely, like the hard drive lost at the rubbish tip in Manchester in 2013 with a key for 800BTC on it. So the former will eventually be able to be brute-forced in coming decades when quantum computers can be accessed. But the lost keys are lost forever.

Wallet files are usually encrypted with symmetric cryptography like AES, so quantum computers actually won't be able to help a lot here, but a growing speed of regular computers might do the tricks, although it's hard to predict how many decades would it take to crack 128-bit AES.

But I would assume that most coins are lost in the second sense, with no encrypted file available, because that's what happened in early days - files were lost with OS reinstalls, hardware got thrown away, etc.

A lot of the research around what could be cracked by quantum computers comes with a great unknown. It is definitely possible to a powerful enough computer would be able to crack any type of encryption because the amount of calculations it can undertake in a short space of time is staggering. However I'm not sure by that point it will be much to worry about, because it would make all kinds of essential services and financial systems vulnerable so nowhere would be safe. Ultimately some sort of failed-attempt time delay and two factor authentication system would need to be added to a cryptocurrency wallet to avoid such attacks.

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?

Quote from: BlackHatCoiner on June 20, 2021, 06:23:43 AM

Although, I had also read that around 3 million BTC, excluding Satoshi's, have left the circulation. Make your own research and your own assumptions.

yup defining lost coins can be pretty hazy.

i estimate ive lost 10-15% of my coins, mostly early stuff i mined from around 2011-2013 and just playing around with them with various wallets etc. these are lost as in the wallet files/private keys are actually gone/destroyed.

so i tend to use my own examples of stupidity as an example. assume im twice as stupid as the average bitcoiner so i say 5-8% of coins, mainly from early days are toast as it was experimental and fun to play around testing things back then.

hows that for SOMA heh

o_e_l_e_o

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Quote from: hazenyc on June 20, 2021, 12:04:41 PM

How do they actually calculate the number of lost coins? Are they just looking at what tx outputs seem to be idle for a very long time or do they have a rationale that they base their argument on?

Pretty much as you said - just coins which haven't been moved in a long time. To say that all coins which haven't been moved in >5 years are lost is wildly inaccurate at best. We see coins which haven't moved in over 5 years being transacted all the time, and we've seen messages being signed from address holding coins which haven't moved in over a decade, proving that they are not lost either.

The only coins which are provably lost and can be subtracted from the maximum supply are those which miners failed to claim in the first place, the 50 coins from the genesis block which cannot be spent, and those sent to OP_RETURN outputs. I am aware of about 130 BTC lost in the first of those categories, and about 27 BTC currently sent to OP_RETURN outputs, meaning the total amount of provably burned bitcoin is only around 200 BTC.

You could relatively safely include all bitcoin sent to obvious burner addresses, but once you start including coins which are inactive or you think belong to Satoshi, then your estimates become increasingly inaccurate.

hazenyc

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Quote from: zasad@ on June 20, 2021, 04:44:10 AM

"This translates into a BTC price (given 19M BTC in 2020–2024) of $288K. "

https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/bitcoin-stock-to-flow-cross-asset-model-50d260feed12
I didn't understand if PlanB accounts for lost bitcoins or not, but there isn't much time left until 2024 to test his theory. She has many supporters and many opponents.

How do they actually calculate the number of lost coins? Are they just looking at what tx outputs seem to be idle for a very long time or do they have a rationale that they base their argument on? I guess 4 million could be about right. I have also heard about a couple of cases here and there where thousands were lost and most likely there have been hundreds and hundreds of those cases.

I wonder how much exchanges earned from the portions of Bitcoin that people left there because it didn't seem worth it to withdraw it. Like small amounts of 0.004 or something. Happened to me as well and I can't access several accounts anymore where that is the case. Some exchanges are gone by now.

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Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

So the former will eventually be able to be brute-forced in coming decades when quantum computers can be accessed. But the lost keys are lost forever.

Brute forcing keys will never a thing on BTC. If it ever does, the network will do a hard fork and change its algorithm to protect itself.

I doubt that quantum computers will possess a threat to btc. If it ever does, unless you own hundreds of bitcoins, it will be the last thing you'll worry about.

kojektea

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I think at the moment the supply of bitcoin is not perfect , But there is no definitive data, 21 million is the total creation. If it is calculated by things that we do not know there is actually pure burning in bitcoin such as accidents, fires, key losses, It makes bitcoins become in much less supply, and it will continue to happen, if we lose the wallet access key. It's bitcoin burning, well the fact is bitcoin can be reduced but it can't add up.

Ultegra134

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Undoubtedly, there's no accurate way to measure how many coins are in circulation. However, the 4 million lost coin prediction looks quite possible. Likewise, chances are that most early adopters have lost the majority of their BTC in some forgotten hard drive.

On top of that, I also believe that all of us had some fractions of BTC lost throughout the years.

BlackHatCoiner

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Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

If we subtract Satoshi’s 1 million BTC (as Plan B does in his STF2X model), should we also subtract the ~4 million BTC estimated to have been lost?

If you subtract Satoshi's bitcoins, you should also substract the ones that are same like inactive, correct. The questions is: Should you subtract Satoshi's bitcoins? Should you trust a study that showed an estimated number of lost bitcoins? Should you trust Satoshi for not being alive and not being willing to spend them? We've got rid of trust in this blockchain-lized era, if something doesn't have a proof that it's gone for good, it is simply not gone.

For example, an OP_RETURN output is a solid proof that these coins are burnt; a burning address is also a proof that no one could generate such RIPEMD-160 hash, so no one owns it and therefore, they're also burnt.

Although, I had also read that around 3 million BTC, excluding Satoshi's, have left the circulation. Make your own research and your own assumptions.

DooMAD

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Maybe I've just been here too long, but I no longer get that element of fun people seem to have when speculating about this anymore. Feels a bit of a fruitless endeavour.

Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

like the hard drive lost at the rubbish tip in Manchester in 2013 with a key for 800BTC on it.

Yeah, even if someone found that, if it has been exposed to the elements for roughly 8 years, it's difficult to imagine anything could be recovered from it.

hd49728

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Quote from: staffnsnake on June 20, 2021, 03:29:10 AM

If we subtract Satoshi’s 1 million BTC (as Plan B does in his STF2X model), should we also subtract the ~4 million BTC estimated to have been lost?

You can not know correct number, of satoshi and of others.

What you know about that is the known addresses of Satoshi. Do you think satoshi only has one bitcoin wallet? As a founder of Bitcoin, he is wisely enough to hide the wallet he stores his Bitcoin. I meant satoshi can own more than 1 million BTC.

For the others, you only see estimated number of lost BTC. You can not know how accurate the number is.

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So that would make total supply around 16 million BTC.

It can be higher or smaller but the more important thing is Bitcoin will be accepted more and the world population will become bigger and bigger. Demand and supply rule will help Bitcoin be exchanged with more expensive price. Long term.

DarkDays

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Wallet files are usually encrypted with symmetric cryptography like AES, so quantum computers actually won't be able to help a lot here, but a growing speed of regular computers might do the tricks, although it's hard to predict how many decades would it take to crack 128-bit AES.

Todays' computer power would not stand a good chance at cracking the cryptographic encryption. The process could start but it would be futile. In the future where technological progress is close enough to provide immortality potential would stand a chance but it will also take a very long time. In other words, it is almost impossible to crack it.

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But I would assume that most coins are lost in the second sense, with no encrypted file available, because that's what happened in early days - files were lost with OS reinstalls, hardware got thrown away, etc.

Yeah, I've heard many people who got involved at the beginning (2009/2010) didn't really know what they were doing and needless to say did not take outmost care backing up their files, now left with no record and forever lost their access. It happens, and there's nothing you can do now.

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We'll never know how much exactly the total lost bitcoins forever and how much exactly satoshi has. So if you're asking for the real total number of the remaining supply.
There's no way to validate that data and the numbers are just speculated and I agree to mk4, estimations.

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The theory of 4 million lost BTC comes from an analysis by a company that analyzed all coin addresses and concluded that any BTC that did not move from a particular address in a period of 4 or 5 years could be considered lost. This is of course a very dubious methodology that has proven to be very unreliable over the years when we could see that someone has been doing transactions with BTC that has not moved since 2010.

Even if we accept that 4 million BTC has been lost, we still have 17 million left (OP math is not very good because 21-4 is still 17). It is true that some people have admitted to losing hundreds or thousands of BTC over the years, but all of this together can hardly be expressed in millions - except perhaps some speculation about how much BTC was actually mined by Satoshi himself, and that number is always around 1 million. If I were to add to that another 1 million that others lost in total, my optimistic estimate is that no more than 2 million BTC was lost.

Quote from: https://decrypt.co/37171/lost-bitcoin-3-7-million-bitcoin-are-probably-gone-forever

If you take a more relaxed approach and consider any Bitcoin that hasn't moved for more than five years to be lost, then around 20% of all Bitcoin fits into this category. According to a June 2020 report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, around 3.7 million BTC hasn't been touched for at least half a decade—that's around $40.6 billion worth of Bitcoin that might never be moved again. Crypto data firm Glassnode estimates that about 3 million Bitcoin are lost forever.

mk4

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There's a reason why the so called "lost" coins are always not included when talking about data; simply due to the fact that they're just estimations. It's not confirmed if all those coins are actually lost.

evilgreed

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This is why most of the people say that bitcoin's big advantage is also its huge disadvantage which is its total lost, hoarded, and circulating supply. But still it works well as a store of value and great investment specially for the people who have been in this industry for a long time along with those that keep on accumulating and holding their bitcoins. Although there can be no certainty that some coins that are missing from the scene are lost forever, the fact still remains; Bitcoin's supply is still a problem.

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