Topic: "Real" Value of Bitcoin? (Read 352 times)

It makes perfect sense. I asked because you were pointing to the real value of Bitcoin as the value of acquisition and I've always thought that the real value should be the average retail value.
If we compare Bitcoin to goods sold at 300% the acquisition cost it starts to look much better. I wasn't even thinking of such high numbers but I guess it should be always trading at the very least 10% above the minimum needed to sustain the network. Half of the retail (150%) would be perfect as a stable average since nobody has to market Bitcoin. It's only acquisition and profit.

Although some kind of approximations can be used to predict price of bitcoin, people can't be predicted totally. I think, none of bitcoin investors would accept to sale their bitcoin below 6k.

If you're calculating it by comparing the prices of hardware you're not coming up with the real value but the lowest possible value that keeps miners mining. Why would the lowest value be the "real" value? You don't measure the real value of a car by the cost of parts and labor needed to make it. If we did that a lamborghini would be worth $50,000 instead of 500,000.

Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.

You can see the price formed by supply-demand balance in the market conditions.

have you ever tried to find out fiat's real value? just try once, trust me, you will get shocked with the results.

Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.

Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.

Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.

I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently

to answer you both:

value Vs price....

bitcoin is at what most would say is at great "value" right now. because the price is ABOVE a long tested VALUE. but not much.


take many things.
businesses tend to want to markup costs vs retail price at a 3x multiple. to cover labour bills and profit
(ya some get greedy and want more.. eg coffee costs pennies for ingredients but sell for over couple dollars 10x)

so if the acquisition(cost/base) VALUE is $5800 and the PRICE is $6400. thats not even 10%(0.1x), let alone 300%(3x) so people see bitcoin as very valued and at a good low PRICE to buy

however SELLERS see it under PRICED

the 300% markup retailers, industrials and manufacturers go by is normal..
100% to pay off the acquisition COST. 100% to cater for other expenses involved and 100% profit

consumers over the decades of retail psychology are usually happy and willing to pay out at 3x of a products cost for the convenience of not having to do the hard work of manufacturing things themselves.. its been like that since retail psychology began

even in bitcoin when costs since last year were $5800 or more. people were willing to pay upto $18k(3x markup) and then the desire slipped away at $20k

same goes for most things.

if you can work out the COST of something you can generally work out the zone of desire (as long as the 'product' has utility)

EG
if the PRICE went below $5800 its under VALUED
if the PRICE was in the $6k-$18k range. its in the 'valued range'
if the PRICE was in the $20k range. its in over valued

bitcoin is only 10% above value. but no where near over priced $18k+.
but value is subjective depending on which side..
the seller that wants $18k and the buyer that wants $6k
(value zone $6k-$18)
so $6400 is low value to seller but great value to buyer

(hope it makes sense.. i had a few drinks but tried best to keep my thoughts logical tonight)
in short: price and value are not the exact same numbers

I think the real value of Bitcoin is around $ 3,000 and should grow depending on demand.

I do not trust the daily volume of Bitcoin trading and I think that the real demand for Bitcoin is less than coinmarketcap.com tells us

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500.