Topic: "Real" Value of Bitcoin? - page 2. (Read 346 times)

I think the price is much higher than you said. In fact the question of how limited the value of the limited Bitcoin is to the value of unlimited paper is strange. If we can value such a simple paper the value of Bitcoin should not be in anything else in the world.

to answer you both:

value Vs price....

bitcoin is at what most would say is at great "value" right now. because the price is ABOVE a long tested VALUE. but not much.


take many things.
businesses tend to want to markup costs vs retail price at a 3x multiple. to cover labour bills and profit
(ya some get greedy and want more.. eg coffee costs pennies for ingredients but sell for over couple dollars 10x)

so if the acquisition(cost/base) VALUE is $5800 and the PRICE is $6400. thats not even 10%(0.1x), let alone 300%(3x) so people see bitcoin as very valued and at a good low PRICE to buy

however SELLERS see it under PRICED

the 300% markup retailers, industrials and manufacturers go by is normal..
100% to pay off the acquisition COST. 100% to cater for other expenses involved and 100% profit

consumers over the decades of retail psychology are usually happy and willing to pay out at 3x of a products cost for the convenience of not having to do the hard work of manufacturing things themselves.. its been like that since retail psychology began

even in bitcoin when costs since last year were $5800 or more. people were willing to pay upto $18k(3x markup) and then the desire slipped away at $20k

same goes for most things.

if you can work out the COST of something you can generally work out the zone of desire (as long as the 'product' has utility)

EG
if the PRICE went below $5800 its under VALUED
if the PRICE was in the $6k-$18k range. its in the 'valued range'
if the PRICE was in the $20k range. its in over valued

bitcoin is only 10% above value. but no where near over priced $18k+.
but value is subjective depending on which side..
the seller that wants $18k and the buyer that wants $6k
(value zone $6k-$18)
so $6400 is low value to seller but great value to buyer

(hope it makes sense.. i had a few drinks but tried best to keep my thoughts logical tonight)
in short: price and value are not the exact same numbers

If you're calculating it by comparing the prices of hardware you're not coming up with the real value but the lowest possible value that keeps miners mining. Why would the lowest value be the "real" value? You don't measure the real value of a car by the cost of parts and labor needed to make it. If we did that a lamborghini would be worth $50,000 instead of 500,000.

yep
. i just done the math..
for the S9 asics
52exa was the $5800 line
for the new T15 asics
65exa is the $5800 line

right now while the hashrate is around the 52exa average. if the entire mining community had T15 asics (delivery isnt until after christmas, but roll with my 'if' scenario)
then pools would get 1800 btc a day where each btc would cost them less.. ($4500)
now IF all 1800 coins a day were sold simultaneously at the same time. it would put enough down pressure to make the price go down below the shortterm support of $6100

but as you can see. many ifs.
1. if the hashrate remained at 52exa to late december so that asics were profitable for less that $5800
2. if all pools had T15 asics so that a whole day of coin rewards 1800 were created at lower cost
3. if all pools sold said coins at the same time.

so as long as the hashrate climes to 65exa by christmas. then those using t15 after delivery(christmas) will have a cost of over $5800 per btc.. thus they wont want to sell for less thus the 11 month baseline of $5800 will remain intact
 

About a month ago, I saw certain website state an almost same value as yours... On I don't remember it's name but I dunno whether they were using your very approach to estimate the value or not, but if it's not the same approach then this is quite impressive

Why would this even matter while we are in such early days of bitcoin? It's obviously undervalued if you're investing long term and expect to have a decent return 5-10 years from now.

Would love to talk more about this. UTXO analysis is something I haven't fully drilled down yet.

Wouldn't more efficient miners allow the price to be lower? More hashpower for less $$, plus old miners retiring gear?

seems you got the same numbers as me for a 11 month sentiment value.

numbers i got were from the LOW's of the last 11 month where people refused to sell below. which if you look at the UTXO movements of the last 11 months over 70% of utxo's moved while prices were over that amount, meaning the psychology is people were moving coin and thinking of the price of bitcoin atleast $5800 but refusing to sell for less

then if you do the math of 50exa / 14thash asic and calculate the electric used per block then per btc. .. and also spread the ASICS hard war cost over a year before replacements/upgrades puts asic mining costs above $5800.. again miners wont sell for less than their mining cost

so because people were selling BTC down to $5800 but never below $5800 for 11 months. the sentiment is that $5800 is the bottomline.

that said. thats kinda slowly being outdated as there is a new 3-4 month sentiment of around $6100. but the amount of transaction movements of 3-4 months is not a clear 'majority', so too early to call $6100 a milstone limit.
and soon new more efficient ASICS are to be launched.. so that may test the $6100. so i am going to see if december (by the time the new asics are online) tests the $6100 or $5800 lines

Has anyone else developed a model for valuing Bitcoin? What number did you reach?

Context: I believe Bitcoin is currently overvalued by around $500. I have been playing with some valuation models recently (have a quant/finance background) and have been measuring relationships between wallet growth, tx info like volume and fees, and transaction velocity against social sentiment over time, which got me to a "true" value of ~$5812. This isn't exactly speculation, but it's not baseless either so I'm interested in how you guys have approached the problem.