... the major reason why the altcoin market is hard to speculate because it circulating supply can easily be tempered more coin being minted at will which will render speculators analysis inaccurate in most cases.
Name me one coin that has tempered their circulating supply in a bad way that would affect on the portfolio (excluding the dilution where total value in usd wouldn't change). Even if this would happen it would be easy for community not to accept the fork and keep the altcoin classic version.
Also Vitalik isn't vital part important part of Ethereum development anymore.
Those aren't the reason. Reason is that there are thousand of low caps and without understanding the tech, having insight on whales or influencers, you don't know what is going to get adopted and what just shilled and pumped. And there's the fact that some mid-low caps are way more volatile when they react to btc movements, world events and stuff like that