Recent decline? | Bitcointalksearch.org

ranlo

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Quote from: ScopeXL on June 15, 2013, 07:02:28 PM

One person mentioned earlier that the drops also happen on the weekend (especially on Sundays) due to no bank's being open. And I heard a rumor that a few big players like to move the market on the weekends by selling a ton of bitcoins and buying them back up. I can't confirm this. Simply things I've heard around the block.

This is actually an interesting theory. It makes sense as well... though I think there's a somewhat large element of risk there. When you do a mass sell to get the price down to re-buy, you are hoping that others will also sell theirs. If they don't, you lose.

woodle

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the price is still going low.

ScopeXL

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One person mentioned earlier that the drops also happen on the weekend (especially on Sundays) due to no bank's being open. And I heard a rumor that a few big players like to move the market on the weekends by selling a ton of bitcoins and buying them back up. I can't confirm this. Simply things I've heard around the block.

CompNsci

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Panic when there is a large sell causes significant flash crashes, where prices drop rapidly in 30 mins. It takes longer generally for the price to head back up.

In the long, it will as businesses and infrastructure develop.

ranlo

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Quote from: Loredo on June 15, 2013, 03:34:55 PM

Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 03:09:44 PM

So what we would experience is a drop (in your scenario a pretty large one I think), followed by a slow incline.

That's what I think, too. Which is why I think this period of time (the coming of the ASIC's) is the moment of truth for BTC. If there was one mistake made in design, it was in choosing a crypto algorithm that was "too easy" in the sense of chip processes.

Keep in mind though that BTC is over 4 years old. So it's taken 4 years to get ASIC's and such created. I think in the next few years Scrypt will also be ASIC'd.

Loredo

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Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 03:09:44 PM

So what we would experience is a drop (in your scenario a pretty large one I think), followed by a slow incline.

That's what I think, too. Which is why I think this period of time (the coming of the ASIC's) is the moment of truth for BTC. If there was one mistake made in design, it was in choosing a crypto algorithm that was "too easy" in the sense of chip processes.

ranlo

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Quote from: Loredo on June 15, 2013, 02:54:14 PM

Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:43:27 PM

It turns into people undercutting each other, lowering the prices until someone (or a group) manages to buy the wall back up again.

Another thought experiment scenario. What would happen if a significant proportion of the daily mined BTC (closer to 4000 than 3600 right now due to gaming the difference between difficulty and hash rate) were to be garnered by venture capitalists who really have no interest in holding BTC rather than USD, EUR, or JPY?

YiFu mentioned the chance of this happening last month, the appearance of the Winkies in BTC suggests it, and, face it, there's a lot of Silicon Valley based VC's for whom the development of a simple task ASIC isn't a huge, new challenge.

If this were to happen, theoretically the price would start plummeting. This is UNLESS people were buying it up as fast as it was being put on the market (I'm thinking that wouldn't happen though). There is another side-effect of this, though, which is that the prices dropping like that causes panic and makes other people sell, driving the price down more (some won't do it out of panic, but to buy back at the lower price).

So what we would experience is a drop (in your scenario a pretty large one I think), followed by a slow incline.

Loredo

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Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:43:27 PM

It turns into people undercutting each other, lowering the prices until someone (or a group) manages to buy the wall back up again.

Another thought experiment scenario. What would happen if a significant proportion of the daily mined BTC (closer to 4000 than 3600 right now due to gaming the difference between difficulty and hash rate) were to be garnered by venture capitalists who really have no interest in holding BTC rather than USD, EUR, or JPY?

YiFu mentioned the chance of this happening last month, the appearance of the Winkies in BTC suggests it, and, face it, there's a lot of Silicon Valley based VC's for whom the development of a simple task ASIC isn't a huge, new challenge.

Xuesheng

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I absolutely agree. We should totally expect bc to be extremely volatile. Since we are so much at an investors stage and not yet at a currency stage it could easily fluctuate rapidly as normal panic/greed cycles go through their paces. Once it becomes more of an actual currency (accepted by a substantial number of businesses) the fluctuations will level out a bit.

ranlo

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Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 01:38:08 PM

I agree with that. However in the short term the price dropping means somebody or some group of people suddenly decided to unload a substantial amount of Bitcoin. Assuming that this is not some large holder dumping a bunch of coins to purposely lower price isn't it feasible that the BFL asics shipping triggered some sort of sell off from existing GPU miners who were just hanging on until asics shipped?

It was only a passing thought as I've, and I'm sure most of us, have been following BFL for a while now and they've only started shipping in quantities in the last 2-3 weeks.

Mmm, this is a really hard one. While that is definitely a possibility, another idea I saw the other day (that I think is likely more plausible) is that it has to do with the recouping of funds used to purchase the asics. People have had their money out of their pocket for a year or more with absolutely nothing to show for it, so this could be their way of trying to get financially back up again.

Also, keep in mind that something we see (at least in games, but I think it should apply here?) is that if one person drops their price, by say 10%, someone else will as well. It turns into people undercutting each other, lowering the prices until someone (or a group) manages to buy the wall back up again.

esenminer

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Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:22:15 PM

Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 01:10:31 PM

Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:01:59 PM

Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 12:55:28 PM

It may be coincidental but BFL has started shipping increasing difficulty even more. Maybe miners who don't want to move into asics or alt coins are selling their coins forcing price down.

It's coincidental. The opposite is what should happen under normal circumstances (supply goes down and can't meet demand, so price goes up).

The mining supply of Bitcoins is constant as difficulty compensates for increase in network hashrate.

My thought was that miners who can't / don't want to continue mining because of asics are getting out while the price is high. They are selling, increasing the supply of bitcoins forcing price down. Or maybe just general uncertainty of what's going to happen when all the asics come online.

The supply, in the general sense, is constant. However those with the highest hash rates are undoubtedly holding on to their coins. It's the people with lesser hash rates that usually spend theirs. This means that more coins are ending up being held by a small subset of people, lowering the supply to everyone else. In a sense, you can view it as the "1%" situation.

I agree with that. However in the short term the price dropping means somebody or some group of people suddenly decided to unload a substantial amount of Bitcoin. Assuming that this is not some large holder dumping a bunch of coins to purposely lower price isn't it feasible that the BFL asics shipping triggered some sort of sell off from existing GPU miners who were just hanging on until asics shipped?

It was only a passing thought as I've, and I'm sure most of us, have been following BFL for a while now and they've only started shipping in quantities in the last 2-3 weeks.

ranlo

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Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 01:10:31 PM

Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:01:59 PM

Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 12:55:28 PM

It may be coincidental but BFL has started shipping increasing difficulty even more. Maybe miners who don't want to move into asics or alt coins are selling their coins forcing price down.

It's coincidental. The opposite is what should happen under normal circumstances (supply goes down and can't meet demand, so price goes up).

The mining supply of Bitcoins is constant as difficulty compensates for increase in network hashrate.

My thought was that miners who can't / don't want to continue mining because of asics are getting out while the price is high. They are selling, increasing the supply of bitcoins forcing price down. Or maybe just general uncertainty of what's going to happen when all the asics come online.

The supply, in the general sense, is constant. However those with the highest hash rates are undoubtedly holding on to their coins. It's the people with lesser hash rates that usually spend theirs. This means that more coins are ending up being held by a small subset of people, lowering the supply to everyone else. In a sense, you can view it as the "1%" situation.

esenminer

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Quote from: ranlo on June 15, 2013, 01:01:59 PM

Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 12:55:28 PM

It may be coincidental but BFL has started shipping increasing difficulty even more. Maybe miners who don't want to move into asics or alt coins are selling their coins forcing price down.

It's coincidental. The opposite is what should happen under normal circumstances (supply goes down and can't meet demand, so price goes up).

The mining supply of Bitcoins is constant as difficulty compensates for increase in network hashrate.

My thought was that miners who can't / don't want to continue mining because of asics are getting out while the price is high. They are selling, increasing the supply of bitcoins forcing price down. Or maybe just general uncertainty of what's going to happen when all the asics come online.

ranlo

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Quote from: esenminer on June 15, 2013, 12:55:28 PM

It may be coincidental but BFL has started shipping increasing difficulty even more. Maybe miners who don't want to move into asics or alt coins are selling their coins forcing price down.

It's coincidental. The opposite is what should happen under normal circumstances (supply goes down and can't meet demand, so price goes up).

PeterB

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Quote from: Birdy on June 15, 2013, 05:19:59 AM

I think the two main reasons are that quite some ways to get money into Bitcoin from the USA have been stopped (+some Fincen news that they discuss Bitcoin) and someone with a lot of Btc decided to dump them into the market.

Other than that we had good news only.

+1 I think the lack of ways for Americans to buy bitcoins is really slowing things in the short term.

esenminer

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It may be coincidental but BFL has started shipping increasing difficulty even more. Maybe miners who don't want to move into asics or alt coins are selling their coins forcing price down.

tabnloz

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Quote from: Galahad on June 15, 2013, 06:23:43 AM

Sorry tabnloz, don't know what's got into me lately.

It's all good.....stimulated a bit of debate anyway.

ranlo

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Quote from: simplemachine on June 15, 2013, 11:09:41 AM

I also saw this and wondered why bitcoins lost so much value in a day or two.

It will bounce back. It always has. BTC is still fairly new in terms of mass adoption so it's finding its place.

simplemachine

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I also saw this and wondered why bitcoins lost so much value in a day or two.

pistachiotuque

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@galahad: low post count is artificial, some of us have lurked for a long time and only participate glancingly with the forum but read through from time to time.

I don't like newbie jail, but i dont like spammers either, so posting to threads I go, solving that very problem for my own account.

The analysis above was spot on, media cycle is down so miners that sell immediately are putting downward pressure on price. But tons more miner capacity is coming online soon, as we are in a paradigm shift going on right now in the migration to ASIC based mining equipment. So those who both mine and sell will likely fluctuate quite a bit in the upcoming timeframe. Get ready for volatility.

Topic: Recent decline? (Read 1535 times)