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Topic: Recent decline? - page 2. (Read 1538 times)

full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 10:48:03 AM
#25
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.

You mean basically seeing which one is more profitable? I've got to think that oil would be, just because while the barrel of oil may be $100 or whatever, the cost once it's been refined has a much higher profit margin.
I don't think a currency's exchange rate can be meaningfully compared to the price of a commodity.  The barrel of oil has defined value as the derived products' utility is consumed.  But a USD/BTC rate of $100 doesn't imply that a BTC provides or "produces" USD 100 of goods or services.

mmm, I see what you mean. The concept of virtual vs. actual, or the fact that while oil has a true usability (in that it runs vehicles and such) BTC has an inferred value, in that it is only useful for trade.
Exactly.  And in BTC's case, since it doesn' have the power of a sovereign behind it (which can cram down a currency on people by decree) the exchange rate has a element of risk still ("can I use it where I need to buy?" "how are others defining the exchange rate?" "will it be declared illegal by my government?" on and on.)

Hence, huge volatility. 
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
June 15, 2013, 10:38:11 AM
#24
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.

You mean basically seeing which one is more profitable? I've got to think that oil would be, just because while the barrel of oil may be $100 or whatever, the cost once it's been refined has a much higher profit margin.
I don't think a currency's exchange rate can be meaningfully compared to the price of a commodity.  The barrel of oil has defined value as the derived products' utility is consumed.  But a USD/BTC rate of $100 doesn't imply that a BTC provides or "produces" USD 100 of goods or services.

mmm, I see what you mean. The concept of virtual vs. actual, or the fact that while oil has a true usability (in that it runs vehicles and such) BTC has an inferred value, in that it is only useful for trade.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 10:33:49 AM
#23
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.

You mean basically seeing which one is more profitable? I've got to think that oil would be, just because while the barrel of oil may be $100 or whatever, the cost once it's been refined has a much higher profit margin.
I don't think a currency's exchange rate can be meaningfully compared to the price of a commodity.  The barrel of oil has defined value as the derived products' utility is consumed.  But a USD/BTC rate of $100 doesn't imply that a BTC provides or "produces" USD 100 of goods or services.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
June 15, 2013, 10:20:07 AM
#22
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.

You mean basically seeing which one is more profitable? I've got to think that oil would be, just because while the barrel of oil may be $100 or whatever, the cost once it's been refined has a much higher profit margin.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 10:17:58 AM
#21
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.
Seriously, it's likely coincidental.  Arguably thye major forces holding oil in the USD 80 - 100 trading range are, on the top, the effect that $4 gasoline has on US demand, forming a cap, and on the bottom, the cost of US fracked oil, which will shut in below the production costs, in the 80s, forming a floor.

Most likely, IMO, the BTC trading range is formed by USD 100 as the floor, and EUR 100 (USD130 +/-) as the cap.
newbie
Activity: 16
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 10:11:03 AM
#20
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
hmmm interesting...not saying that 1 btc should equate to a barrel of oil, but would like to see the cost of mining one btc compared to the cost of drilling for one barrel of oil.

of course the costs of mining one btc cannot be broken down like that and the costs of producing one barrel of oil cannot actually be determined what with all the government intervention in oil markets...but it would be a good thought experiment nonetheless.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
June 15, 2013, 10:08:14 AM
#19
Could be many things. BTC is still volatile to individual events and the market is still a bit nervy IMHO.

I think it's prudent to not worry too much about short term prices. I haven't invested any more than I'm willing to lose and with such a good potential upside, I'm pretty relaxed about it. In the least a small stake is still being part of change. I think it is interesting to follow all the developments - who knows where it will go?

Can't believe you were put down for this post. I agree 100% with both points. The system is definitely volatile right now and will likely remain so until media attention starts to plateau. As for short-term prices, that follows the volatility and BTC is just like anything else: only invest what you can afford to lose.
staff
Activity: 3304
Merit: 4115
June 15, 2013, 10:05:47 AM
#18
Better start advertising Bitcoin to you're friends & family Wink
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 09:40:40 AM
#17
Check out the historical chart at http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ (put the time frame on D1).  Aside from the parabolic run up into the USD 200's, the level of 100 seems to be, for now, a new baseline valuation.

When markets don't know what things are fundamentally worth, they tend to trade around "round numbers."  Currently 1BTC = 1 Barrel of oil, approximately.
newbie
Activity: 29
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 09:31:36 AM
#16
I would guess its the total lack of news about mtgoxs problems in the US.
I mean i wouldnt send any money to mtgox at the moment and im sure others are thinking the same.
newbie
Activity: 57
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 07:09:09 AM
#15
It's been getting harder to get BTC in and out of the network recently, especially stateside.
full member
Activity: 190
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 06:34:56 AM
#14
Selling is constant. Miners have to sell on a daily or weekly basis to earn fiat to cover their real world costs (electricity, rent, food)

Buying comes in waves. People learn about bitcoin, and get involved in bitcoin, and buy bitcoins, in non-linear time frames. Events and news usually cause these buying spikes, as we saw with the Cyprus events from earlier this year.

It looks like we are in a quiet buying period combined with a constant selling cycle.

Good analysis.
newbie
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 06:27:16 AM
#13
Just my take on this...

Selling is constant. Miners have to sell on a daily or weekly basis to earn fiat to cover their real world costs (electricity, rent, food)

Buying comes in waves. People learn about bitcoin, and get involved in bitcoin, and buy bitcoins, in non-linear time frames. Events and news usually cause these buying spikes, as we saw with the Cyprus events from earlier this year.

It looks like we are in a quiet buying period combined with a constant selling cycle.

Just my two bits...

Tips if you found this info informative or entertaining.  1DQGTLJxiKnvRaYizpRo1Cy4hcHa4HqKqo

You are awesome.
newbie
Activity: 16
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 06:24:36 AM
#12
Just my take on this...

Selling is constant. Miners have to sell on a daily or weekly basis to earn fiat to cover their real world costs (electricity, rent, food)

Buying comes in waves. People learn about bitcoin, and get involved in bitcoin, and buy bitcoins, in non-linear time frames. Events and news usually cause these buying spikes, as we saw with the Cyprus events from earlier this year.

It looks like we are in a quiet buying period combined with a constant selling cycle.

Just my two bits...

Tips if you found this info informative or entertaining.  1DQGTLJxiKnvRaYizpRo1Cy4hcHa4HqKqo
full member
Activity: 190
Merit: 100
June 15, 2013, 06:23:43 AM
#11
Sorry tabnloz, don't know what's got into me lately.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
June 15, 2013, 06:13:30 AM
#10
I think the two main reasons are that quite some ways to get money into Bitcoin from the USA have been stopped (+some Fincen news that they discuss Bitcoin) and someone with a lot of Btc decided to dump them into the market.

Other than that we had good news only.

Agreed, I agree one of the major causes would be  Bitcoin from the USA has been stopped. USA were the biggest buyers/sellers
It's not stopped, but it's more limited than before.
It would be good if they get some more good exchanges/ways to send money to them soon.
staff
Activity: 3304
Merit: 4115
June 15, 2013, 05:38:24 AM
#9
I think the two main reasons are that quite some ways to get money into Bitcoin from the USA have been stopped (+some Fincen news that they discuss Bitcoin) and someone with a lot of Btc decided to dump them into the market.

Other than that we had good news only.

Agreed, I agree one of the major causes would be  Bitcoin from the USA has been stopped. USA were the biggest buyers/sellers
legendary
Activity: 961
Merit: 1000
June 15, 2013, 05:35:56 AM
#8
Could be many things. BTC is still volatile to individual events and the market is still a bit nervy IMHO.

I think it's prudent to not worry too much about short term prices. I haven't invested any more than I'm willing to lose and with such a good potential upside, I'm pretty relaxed about it. In the least a small stake is still being part of change. I think it is interesting to follow all the developments - who knows where it will go?

How come you only have one post but know so much about BTC? Forgive me but I'm always a bit wary to listen of listening to people with that low post count.

I bet the percentage of BTC users ative on this forum is rather small. And you can create multiple accounts here and sell them.

Well, this is my first and only account.

But thanks for the suspicion.

It's all just words on a screen. Take them all with a pinch of salt.





newbie
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
June 15, 2013, 05:35:39 AM
#7
Could be many things. BTC is still volatile to individual events and the market is still a bit nervy IMHO.

I think it's prudent to not worry too much about short term prices. I haven't invested any more than I'm willing to lose and with such a good potential upside, I'm pretty relaxed about it. In the least a small stake is still being part of change. I think it is interesting to follow all the developments - who knows where it will go?

How come you only have one post but know so much about BTC? Forgive me but I'm always a bit wary to listen of listening to people with that low post count.

I've been a miner since around 2010, you don't need to be active or have an account at all on bitcointalk to know something about BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 364
Merit: 250
June 15, 2013, 05:19:59 AM
#6
I think the two main reasons are that quite some ways to get money into Bitcoin from the USA have been stopped (+some Fincen news that they discuss Bitcoin) and someone with a lot of Btc decided to dump them into the market.

Other than that we had good news only.
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