Pages:
Author

Topic: Remember last October when BFL said they would ship by the end of the month? - page 2. (Read 2919 times)

full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
Hey, I have a crazy question.

If BFL said that they got to 500mhz to 1.1Ghz which was roughly...16Gh/s~ per chip when they were still using plastic packaging....

How exactly would the chips have survived if they hadn't switched over to the new packaging?

Me think they knew their chips were probably going to be very very hot....then again, I have no proof of that.

The first shipped out Jalapenos I have heard already killed one or two ventilation fans inside...
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
Hey, I have a crazy question.

If BFL said that they got to 500mhz to 1.1Ghz which was roughly...16Gh/s~ per chip when they were still using plastic packaging....

How exactly would the chips have survived if they hadn't switched over to the new packaging?

"Me thinks" they knew their chips were probably going to be very very hot....then again, I have no proof of that.

----------------------

If the old test batch had a power efficiency of 1 watt per Gh/s...
If run at high clock at 1.1Gh's it would have consumed about 120watts per chip at the old spec.

The current chips would have anywhere from (x1.76 watts) to (x6.00watts) per Gh/s.
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100


I think it is safe to say that BFL's chips never got above 300mhz.....

Actually, if the 2 chip Jally's performance is any indication, they probably never got beyond 160mhz at any reasonable power spec. My chart shows what BFL said would be their power draw per Gh/w.

Though we all know now the overall system is several multiples of 1watt per Gh/s

I would argue they should not have focused on Power too much. Making it strong first, then making it long term  profitable, would have been smarter. Advertising power consumption is something GPU manufacturers have rarely done, since they usually focus on performance first, then hope that someone is going to build a way to get another 75 watts into their cards.

ASIC manufacturers should basically follow this tradition at first. If you have 50gh at 400w, you can still get it down to 50w or less, but first build 50gh/s.
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003
This last edition I made based on BFL Customer Service replies also went down the drain...



I wouldn't even know what to estimate in terms of delivery times. Has anyone heard any new estimates from customer service these days?
legendary
Activity: 1890
Merit: 1003


I think it is safe to say that BFL's chips never got above 300mhz.....

Actually, if the 2 chip Jally's performance is any indication, they probably never got beyond 160mhz at any reasonable power spec. My chart shows what BFL said would be their power draw per Gh/w.

Though we all know now the overall system is several multiples of 1watt per Gh/s
full member
Activity: 224
Merit: 100
The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Not really true. Even the big names like Intel and AMD are manufacturing in countries like Germany. They sold their chip factory in Dresden and it is named Global Foundries by now.

If I had the money, I had probably asked Global Foundries to design my ASIC Chips. They'd get it done in under a month, roll it out with ease  and at the same time do not even do anything above 110nm anymore. They just go crush it with up 14nm. 28nm designing and manufacturing is their little pet right now and in due time, they will allow 14nm right here in Europe.

Quote
nd i worked in one and knew another within 50km from my place in middle europe. Where everything is much more expensive than in most parts of the US.

Its simple: high tech with small work force..

Probably GF? Cheesy

(Don't answer that. Internet and so on.)



As for BFL: I am flabbergasted at their performance. The problem with Bitcoin Mining is this: It would be way more profitable to NOT con people.

I have talked with some people about setting up an ASICs company and funding it. We then realized that we can only make money if we use at least 65nm or 40nm wafers in the process, or, at best, buy existing chips from a manufacturer at a higher price.

I have talked to some developing companies who then quoted some estimations between 1-2 million and 5.5 million initial investment cost. Here is the kicker: Almost every company said "We can get the design and initial chips done within a month or so, then after testing, we will be able to manufacture within 10 weeks."

So, where does stuff go wrong? Good question, but the main problem is designing cases and designs before prototyping. There can be significant fluctuation between specs. As someone told me, the main issue in chip design for high end chips is basically getting power consumption down while cranking as much power on the chip (How many cores or gates at what frequency).

The cost of a P&P machine for the chips on the PCB? Is not even that big either. The reason big companies manufacture in China is also the size of their operation. Think about it: Let us say you are a company and produce 10000 chips for 10$  per piece. Now think about a company that produces 1.000.000 for 9.20. It wouldnt mean shit for my first assembly, somewhere around 8000$. If I sell that thing for 40$ anyway, who gives a shit about the 0.80 if you are faster. But if we are talking one million chips and your shareholders asking for their money back, hooyah, you are in China in no time, getting your 800.000 Dollar difference.

Quote
First, you need to get the boards/finished products out the door...

I don't really get where the problem is. With the money they have, they should just get it done and already be working on the product REPLACING the one getting out of the door now. That should be simple, actually. Best would be announcing the Gen 2 the day they ship Gen 1.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I run Linux on my abacus.
And its much more irrelevant if its a product like a miner where you have 50000%  of profit after producing the chips.. 2$ more per board does not count when you make 2k$ profit per board...

First, you need to get the boards/finished products out the door...
newbie
Activity: 32
Merit: 0
The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Sorry but that is simply not true..

First of all we are not talking about large scale. The maybe 10.000 Boards or whatever will be the output of a small plant in a day. (To get it through the whole plant will take 3-5 days..)
And i worked in one and knew another within 50km from my place in middle europe. Where everything is much more expensive than in most parts of the US.

Its simple: high tech with small work force..

And its much more irrelevant if its a product like a miner where you have 50000%  of profit after producing the chips.. 2$ more per board does not count when you make 2k$ profit per board...
hero member
Activity: 1162
Merit: 500
BFL lost alot of trust from its customers.
This is the last product line they will sell, even they want to release other versions they wont sell enough to make any profit.
They slowely kill their own company with those delays, non relevant (For customers) changes on their hardware.

This is why I am especially concerned!

- They kill their reputation step by step, with every new lie from Josh, with every new delay. They might announce one day a v2.0 ASIC, but no one will ever order from them again.
- They already have our money (we all paid 100% upfront).

-> So what's their incentive to keep the company alive and finally ship their products - and not just take the money and run?
hero member
Activity: 1162
Merit: 500
Everyone else will sue BFL to get a refund if BFL refuses. The legal costs and refunds will quickly cause them to go out of business.

This could all happen very suddenly once we cross that difficulty threshold. It's probably in the couple hundred million range, maybe 3 to 500 million?


There won't be enough money to refund everybody. They had running expenses, labor costs, rent, research and development expenses, Josh & Sonny surely got a big piece of the cake too.

If panic, panic first. This is the wholesome lesson a lot of us learnt after the Dotcom crash in 2000, when everybody wanted to get out at the same time.

legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
I never thought about it... but i wonder how much pay each employee is getting.   Seems like at this point their employee pay would be well over what expected when planning all these projects.
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I run Linux on my abacus.
What's more, as bitcoins sit squarely outside the traditional banking system it's going to be difficult and costly trying to get any back through the court system.

You won't get any BTC back if it comes to that. The wonders of anonymous currency Smiley
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
I run Linux on my abacus.
Why are they not being investigated by state attorney generals or why is there no class action lawsuit being organized against them?

Because people still hold the irrational belief that BFL might ship their money printing machine "any day now".

Of course, the longer people hold off on trying to get their money back, the smaller the chance to actually get refunded.

"But but... they will surely ship my order tomorrow!"

Will be funny to watch the eventual backlash. Popcorn anyone?
newbie
Activity: 56
Merit: 0
What did you expect from a bunch (ex) conmen with no, or little real-life work experience?
hero member
Activity: 924
Merit: 1000
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.

Yes. I actually assumed they were assembling in China until relatively recently when I was reading their announcements and realized they were trying to do it in the US. There is no way they will hit production of 400 units/day assembling in the US. At least not for a reasonable price.
PeZ
sr. member
Activity: 297
Merit: 250
The only place to assemble electronics on a large scale and make a profit is China. The fact that BFL is trying to do it in the US is a major alarm bell. There is absolutely no way they will have the capability to meet their current orders. The cost is far too great. They will have to hire facilities and people in China to get the work done. That will take several months to organize.
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
I say they can't even finish 1/3rd of their orders before going out of business.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices  Cheesy  Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning  Angry
Believe it or not, you giving up saddens me a bit.

I used to remember how you were right up there with Lab Rat in supporting BFL. I recall even Lab Rat had some doubts a few months ago. I see they made him a moderator on BFL forums.

Edit: ASIC J is also starting to fall by the way side. When even hardcore supporters start to fall away....it's more troubling than even the hardest troll turning into a total shill.



Yeah,that was then...this is now  Roll Eyes  I'm just VERY tired of the excuses.I gave them the benefit of the doubt,my bad  Sad  

If my order was any later than say August,I'd would refund ASAP.But being first inline,I MAY have a chance to get my one unit.I did pay in BTC too,so it would a total wash of my 100 BTC I got in this  Sad

Looks like I'm gonna keep my FPGA too,since the tradein expires on June 1st & I won't have the diff in BTC or cash to do it.Was hoping to earn the BTC by mining with my 30GH & do the tradein,but alas,it wasn't meant to be   Cry

I really doubt BFL will finish shipping all preorders this year,hell maybe not even by next summer......so my "new order" wouldn't get to me till then,WAY TOO LATE Roll Eyes

I won't bash em though.............yet  Wink I'm just a "disatisfied whiner" to them  Roll Eyes

My prediction is that they will go out of business before they can fill even half of the pre-orders they have now.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 1001
I've already given up,not refunding though..............They will never catch up this year.

Looking into spending my BTC & cash on the "home-made Avalon ASIC" devices  Cheesy  Or someone elses devices,have to wait & see who comes up with what.

& I agree they lied about most everything since the beginning  Angry
Believe it or not, you giving up saddens me a bit.

I used to remember how you were right up there with Lab Rat in supporting BFL. I recall even Lab Rat had some doubts a few months ago. I see they made him a moderator on BFL forums.

Edit: ASIC J is also starting to fall by the way side. When even hardcore supporters start to fall away....it's more troubling than even the hardest troll turning into a total shill.



Yeah,that was then...this is now  Roll Eyes  I'm just VERY tired of the excuses.I gave them the benefit of the doubt,my bad  Sad  

If my order was any later than say August,I'd would refund ASAP.But being first inline,I MAY have a chance to get my one unit.I did pay in BTC too,so it would a total wash of my 100 BTC I got in this  Sad

Looks like I'm gonna keep my FPGA too,since the tradein expires on June 1st & I won't have the diff in BTC or cash to do it.Was hoping to earn the BTC by mining with my 30GH & do the tradein,but alas,it wasn't meant to be   Cry

I really doubt BFL will finish shipping all preorders this year,hell maybe not even by next summer......so my "new order" wouldn't get to me till then,WAY TOO LATE Roll Eyes

I won't bash em though.............yet  Wink I'm just a "disatisfied whiner" to them  Roll Eyes
Pages:
Jump to: