Topic: Report: Bitcoin to $25,000 by 2022 - page 11. (Read 2880 times)
Yeah - its a network effect that basically means the value of the network gets multiplied by itself with each new user. I don't think it strictly applies to currency given that not all people can buy the same level of Bitcoin - but if larger players get involved (like banks) then that number could grow very quickly.
very interesting indeed and it really all depends on the amount of users for Metcalfe’s Law to take affect.
i have never heard of Metcalfe’s Law but a quick google and visit to wikipedia sorted that out.
it states:
Two telephones can make only one connection,
five can make 10 connections,
and twelve can make 66 connections.
I know the report was just a prediction but there is something or some work behind it - hopefully
i have never heard of Metcalfe’s Law but a quick google and visit to wikipedia sorted that out.
it states:
Two telephones can make only one connection,
five can make 10 connections,
and twelve can make 66 connections.
I know the report was just a prediction but there is something or some work behind it - hopefully
Yes of course that this is very interesting to read and watch, i see tons of this predictions all over the day, and most of them are exactly the same, they all say that the price will be X thousand dollars by the end of X year, and this is a proccess that never ends, because those speculations will always exists.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.
At some point the law of large numbers comes into play. It's much easier to go from 1 to 5 (a 5x increase) than it is to go from 5 to 25 (also a 5x increase). At this point, bitcoin is already worth $100 billion. Exactly 6 months ago today, it was worth 20.6 billion. So it's true we've seen about a 5x increase in about 6 months, but another 5x increase from this level will require a lot more than we've gone through this year, and more than bitcoin has gone through in its lifetime total. It seems like it took mania to get to this level. But mania is not a sustaining force over the long term in my opinion.
First, a word of warning: I think the valuation is overly optimistic, in the extreme, and I would take it with a grain of salt. May very well be a small analytics firm looking to grab some attention by making a splashy claim. That said, the report was published to the firm's paying clients, so their own credibility is on the line.
The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:
According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.
“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.
Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”
Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.
A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.
The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:
Quote
We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research. Our differentiated approach is based on what we call fundamental strategy. That is, our research process combines both top-down strategy and bottoms-up fundamental views, to develop a roadmap of practical and useful investment insights for our clients.
According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.
“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.
Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”
Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.
A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.
Even if we don't reach that amount half of that would be fantastic and more than double of what it is now.
Yes of course that this is very interesting to read and watch, i see tons of this predictions all over the day, and most of them are exactly the same, they all say that the price will be X thousand dollars by the end of X year, and this is a proccess that never ends, because those speculations will always exists.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.
But 25k by 2022 is reasonable, it is not so far away from now, i mean, it is only an increase of 5 from the actual value, and we did more than x6 during this year.
Interesting.
All of the valuations that I see like this are based on Bitcoin capturing a certain percentage of the gold market. Long term I think its definitely possible given a 5-10% swing in market share away from gold. The other factor that noone seems to factor in is the youth effect. There are tons of kids now growing up who are learning about crypto.
Part of the reason that superhero movies do so well now is because they were marketed to kids who are now income earners in the economy. In 25-40 years if all kids are putting part of their pension in Bitcoin - its definitely a likely scenario.
I'm Hodling
All of the valuations that I see like this are based on Bitcoin capturing a certain percentage of the gold market. Long term I think its definitely possible given a 5-10% swing in market share away from gold. The other factor that noone seems to factor in is the youth effect. There are tons of kids now growing up who are learning about crypto.
Part of the reason that superhero movies do so well now is because they were marketed to kids who are now income earners in the economy. In 25-40 years if all kids are putting part of their pension in Bitcoin - its definitely a likely scenario.
I'm Hodling
First, a word of warning: I think the valuation is overly optimistic, in the extreme, and I would take it with a grain of salt. May very well be a small analytics firm looking to grab some attention by making a splashy claim. That said, the report was published to the firm's paying clients, so their own credibility is on the line.
The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:
According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.
“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.
Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”
Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.
A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.
The company making the prediction is FundStrat, which describes itself as:
Quote
We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research. Our differentiated approach is based on what we call fundamental strategy. That is, our research process combines both top-down strategy and bottoms-up fundamental views, to develop a roadmap of practical and useful investment insights for our clients.
According to FundStrat, Bitcoin is following Metcalfe’s Law, which essentially sketches out the value of a network based on how many users it has.
“If you modeled something as simple as square the number of users plus transaction value, it’s explained 94% of [Bitcoin’s price appreciation] this year,” Lee said.
Now, as for the future valuation, Tom Lee, Managing Partner of Fundstrat, put a $25,000 price target for Bitcoin by 2022 in a note to clients published earlier this year. However, and this is important, this view is predicated on cryptocurrencies displacing gold in portfolios with Bitcoin serving a “digital store of value.”
Presently, I don't see that happening. I think people using crypto as a long term store of value are taking on immense risk, and I don't see something as volatile as crypto displacing gold, which is historically a hedge against inflation and therefore done out of safety. Bitcoin is pure risk.
A $25,000 price is fun to think about, even though I don't believe it's in the cards.
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