Topic: Requesting DT to take a look at Siigari (defrauding investors) - page 2. (Read 442 times)

...It's almost as if you didn't read the post.

Sigh. Delusion can be as entertaining as it is frustrating to watch.

If that's the formula you want to use then you made the odds even better.

I am done with this thread. There's nothing left for me to produce. I have shown my math, you have shown yours. I guess we just agree to disagree.

That being said you cannot state that I am a scammer or a fraudster. Nothing I am doing is defrauding anyone from their money, because I show all of the indicators that this is still a gamble. If my method works, then great! If it doesn't, then we are all out money together.

Please stop your witch-hunt. Also stop having your buddies DM people in my Discord. That's rude. I don't come into your house and whisper to all of your friends lies about you. I would appreciate it if you not do it in mine.

Your math is really, really bad, in so many ways.

For starters, it's not (11/12)^135. It's (1-(0.99/12))^135, since you need to factor in the 1% house edge.

More importantly, getting the base odds isn't how you calculate it at all. A 1 in 55,000 chance doesn't mean it'll bust in 55,000 games. Not even close. In fact, any basic simulator will tell you that it takes about 950,000 games on average to get a streak of 135 games under 12x. It's trivial to calculate, really. 950,000 games is less than a year. Given your uber-slow gambling speed (5% to 25% a month) yet your high chance of busting (expected bust is in less than one year), this looks like a horrible bet for 'investors'. Not to mention the 5% fee you charge them, which fucks them over even further.

Extremely far from EV+.

You met with a 'financial advisor' and a 'statistician'... for this? LOL

Certainly, and I show it in my thread. The faith is actually hoping that we get past the initial hump. RNG is still RNG and if we don't get started in a positive way then that is what it is.

Here is a chart showing my expected forecast with potential losses. This is based on the probability that we lose every 9 or so months (approximately every 1.5 million games.) In 4-6 months depending on my actual selected rate of return we have more than doubled up, even at smaller, more reasonable returns (especially so at around 13.8%, which gives a nominal rate of return for excessively low risk.)

The math behind it is posted in my thread. It can also be expressed as ((11/12)^135) = 55,000 to 1 occurrence of seeing a 12 streak that is say, 135 long. So even with a stop loss, if we are making an average of 5-6 bits per win, that lines up with the math above, 5.5 * 55,000 = 302,500 - the initial amount we started with as a stop loss (55,000) = 247,500 net in that time, which is give or take what we are looking at walking away with after 9 months (I think it's closer to 238k in the sheet I linked).

I should probably add that the whole "I believe in my script" spiel is most likely a lie too. I had no problem with this if he was willing to bet money on his script being +EV, since it would prove he truly and obviously believed what he was saying. His reluctance to do so indicates the whole thing is a ruse.

Thanks Loyce, couldn't have put it better myself.

He can easily set it up as a script service with a 5% fee (telling people that the game is inherently -EV and that they are expected to lose money). Him saying it's a +EV script is pure fraud.

Here is a screenshot from his Discord shortly before I was banned:



A bunch of messages (including a link to this thread) were also apparently deleted.

The screenshot above, I think, nicely encapsulates his delusion. Albeit he seems to be a pretty smart and competent man, which is why it's pretty obvious to me that he's trying to scam investors and skim off a little fee by lying to people.

There's the problem. I've seen all kinds of variations on martingale, but in the end your faith means nothing against math!
You're following the approach of writing a very long post about it, but none of that changes how the house edge works.
And this is clearly wrong:

Can you show the math behind this +EV? Or are you going to make this about "faith"?

It's not that difficult to make this a honest service, but you'll need to come up with some actual math. For instance (without actually doing the math myself): "there's a 89% chance to get 10% profit, but there's also a 9% chance to lose everything". Do this for different profits, and you're as honest as Investor-based games gets.

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EV+ happens when a casino has a promo/giveaway, not when there's a normal house edge.

Bump

Banned from the server for asking for mathematical proof - another sign that it's a scam

Siigari is apparently telling people I left even though he banned me. He also has been deleting links to this thread.

Got it, thanks

Not slander, obviously, since nothing I said was untrue. Just a community warning after a new potential scammer was discovered. I hope you update your thread information to the truth soon

I have banned you from conducting business with me for posting this thread in an attempt to slander my name.

Per my terms which are viewable publicly in my discord, Note: Upon a ban, if a user is investing, their deposit + profits will be immediately refunded, minus all applicable incidentals. I am following through with my promise of action. This post has not been edited, and has been visibly public since 1/13/2021. Your date of investment was after that thread was posted, so the terms have not changed. (Notice was posted 1/13/2021 at 11:26 AM. Your investment began on 1/13/2021 at 7:37 PM, so the notice had been posted for 8 hours.)

You have been cashed out. Your total gains were 41.82 bits on 1000 bits. My 5% fee was taken, 2.091 bits. Your total cashout has been processed, with all incidentals paid. https://i.imgur.com/L1wkJK1.png

Address: https://blockstream.info/address/38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

I don't want to divest, so please only send the funds if you are cashing out my account by force

38MA7GmvtQ5ZJkgb3x5aTjJ6UpVVKr8Bmm

Based on your attitude in this thread and the post in my thread, I wish to no longer do business with you.

Please give me a BTC address for me so I may close your account. I will send your investment amount + profits to that address.

Cool, shouldn't be too hard to code it in and get back to me! I'll be waiting

The script does not do it all. I am not selling investments into a script, I am selling investments into a method. That was the reason for declining your bet.

The bet would have shown that you truly believed in the method. I was supportive/neutral because you made it seem like you were making the bet. Since you decided not to do the bet, it clearly shows that you don't believe in the script as much as you initially made it appear. Now it looks more like a scam to me. Simple as.

There is no gain - instead loss when I have a vested interest in the method. I am currently in for over 0.025 BTC myself. It would take 0.5 BTC worth of realized investment gains to cash out before I am "manipulating and defrauding" at a loss that is more substantial than my own personal loss. I do not believe enough people will invest that amount of money into my method. If they do, then it is because they trust, and I state they can invest however much they desire.

You have been sideline supportive/neutral of this until I declined your bet. Now that I have you are coming at me with posts in an attempt to defame my method. You are a manipulative person, and I am here being honest and forthcoming, by putting my money where my mouth is in my own investment, not investing into a bet which I cannot prove on my own, nor desire to (who goes in blind on things like that?) all because you did not get a bet with me for $5000 or more.

I am not here to rip anybody off. I am here to help people enjoy the benefits of my faith in my method. I believe that people who sell scripts are in it for themselves because they want easy money and put zero money of their own forward to vet the process, or if they do are selective in sharing their data.

I want to share with others. My vestment in this shows my trust.

Nah, just call it -EV instead of trying to play with words in order to manipulate & defraud people for personal gain

Fair. I will revise my literature to state that I believe my method is +EV and not mention my script is +EV if that will satisfy you.

Stop calling a negative EV script a positive EV script. It's really that simple.

I invested 0.001 BTC for fun, and as a gamble. (I'm an avid bustabit player so I'm no stranger to -1% EV bets anyway)