A few comments...
XRP as a currency.XRP are not "just" what you use to send Ripple transactions. They are also the only thing you can hold in Ripple which is not an IOU. I think XRP will most definitely be a currency, with a non-negligible total market cap which floats against other currencies. And to understand why you need to look no further than why Bitcoin is/will be a valuable currency.
Bitcoins are valuable because they are in use, and they are in use because they are scarce, durable, portable, fungible and divisible; that is, a good currency. So are Ripple credits:
Scarce - There's an upper bound of 100B XRP.
Durable - You can store credits as private keys, back them up and encrypt them.
Portable - You can send them easily anywhere using the Ripple system.
Fungible - I don't know enough about Ripple but I'll guess all credits are the same.
Divisible - There are a total of 100 quadrillion drops in the system.
XRPs have all it takes to become a good currency, and I believe it will be used as such. A currency also needs to be current, and here psychological factors play a large role - the fact that many of the early adopters don't perceive it as a currency might slow down the process, but it won't stop it.
The fact that, in addition, XRP are what you use to send transactions in Ripple, will help them gain value as Ripple becomes in greater demand.
OpenCoin distribution model.That said, there are issues with the distribution model that will either:
1. Enrich the creators above and beyond their fair share for their contribution, or
2. Slow down the adoption as a currency, as people are wary of #1.
In Bitcoin, the distribution model was democratic from the start. Anyone who would listen was able to take a part in the distribution and be equal to the creator and everyone else. Distribution is based on computational work which is measurable and unfakable. People have profited purely based on their belief in Bitcoin and their foresight to understand it. Knowing this is what gives me the power to overcome my envy for those who came before me.
But with Ripple, the creators get all the credits to begin with (some personally, some as part of OpenCoin). This means that the "creators are enriched by people using the system" factor is much more pronounced.
As far as OpenCoin's distribution plan - the fact that they
have a plan, that is, that a centralized body is deciding where the credits should initially go to, is a problem in itself for a decentralized system. Also, I doubt a good plan can be come up with.
It will also be difficult for OpenCoin to prove they're not faking anything and "distributing" the credits back to themselves.
I don't think you can do much better than proof of work. You can use consensus for transaction synchronization, and a Bitcoinesque inflation schedule and PoW-based distribution (it would be like mining blocks without any transactions). If it was this way from the start Ripple could have truly been said to be decentralized.
I think that when they "run out of ripples" the price will start floating and if it just so happens their "friends" bought 50 billion then xrp becomes a manipulable and valuable asset.
I don't really care about what will happen to network after the point when I sold my XRP 100B holdings. Maybe I will start another one.
That's good for you, but if I'm going to use the system, I do care what will happen to it after the flood. That's the point - with all due respect to the founders' business model, we are questioning the ability of this system to act in a sustainable, decentralized way.