Rise in US unemployment. Thoughts? - page 10.

exstasie

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Quote from: bitgolden on June 27, 2020, 09:49:40 AM

Cannot be real count. These stats are just showing how many claims made in one week of time. 33 million must be the total claims made for unemployment benefits in last 6/7 weeks and cannot be the total number of people become jobless. (I assume if I apply for unemployment benefits this week then I need to apply again for next week if I still remain unemployed).

I am not sure how this bar chart stats is misinterpreted to total claims when it is showing cumulative data.

It's the total initial claims that were filed. In other words it captures all the people who lost their job and then filed for unemployment benefits. Some of those people have found work since then. I still think it's a meaningful metric because when people lose full-time jobs they are often replaced by temporary or part-time jobs, or they involve transitioning from an employee to IC or gig worker.

Quote from: bitgolden on June 27, 2020, 09:49:40 AM

The actual count of total unemployed USA people in May 2020 is 21 million. It was 23.1 million April 2020. So, actually 2.1 million people got back to works by this month.

You can refer this news release of bureau of labor statistics(bls) for accurate numbers: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Buried in the fine print of that unemployment report:

Quote

Yet the BLS may have severely undercounted the number of workers classified as “unemployed on temporary layoff” due to an error, the agency said.

The BLS determines how many people are unemployed based on a household survey. Survey interviewers misclassified several furloughed workers as being “absent from work due to ‘other reasons,’” according to the BLS.

That’s the same category of workers who’d be on vacation, for example.

The overall unemployment rate would have been “about 3 percentage points higher than reported” if those individuals had been identified correctly, according to the agency. (The estimate isn’t seasonally adjusted.)

That would put the official unemployment rate at 16.3%.

The true rate could be higher still.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html

My back of the envelope calculations say they knowingly under counted by like 4-5 million people.

Emitdama

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The trouble is not going to last forever but as long as population rises it will eventually lead to the same thing over and over again. System makes sure that there are crashes time to time which results with middle class to poor class all going down while rich and wealthy get saved, which means they will eventually get to a level where they are too rich and will want to hire more people to become richer obviously.

However, they will once again crash and get bailed out meanwhile firing millions of people and this cycle will continue forever. Remember 2008? There was millions of people out of a job and in big debts back in those days as well. So at the end of the day, this firing period will end and there will be a hiring period but there will be another firing period in the future as well, we have to manage to stop that one.

JoMarrah Iarim Dan

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I am just worried for my countrymen out there especially for the domestic helpers. I hope they still have their job and not affected of this. If they become unemployed, they are no where else to go, they have no money to be used to provide their needs plus they are far from their homela d and their family. It is very difficult

bitgolden

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Quote from: btc78 on June 27, 2020, 07:19:08 AM

Quote from: sheenshane on June 23, 2020, 06:40:41 PM

I can't tell more because I'm not a citizen in the US but based on my quick research I found out this stat that gives graphically results.

more than 30 million application?if this is the real count of people Unemployed then they are more than what Indian government has?

Cannot be real count. These stats are just showing how many claims made in one week of time. 33 million must be the total claims made for unemployment benefits in last 6/7 weeks and cannot be the total number of people become jobless. (I assume if I apply for unemployment benefits this week then I need to apply again for next week if I still remain unemployed).

I am not sure how this bar chart stats is misinterpreted to total claims when it is showing cumulative data.

The actual count of total unemployed USA people in May 2020 is 21 million. It was 23.1 million April 2020. So, actually 2.1 million people got back to works by this month.

You can refer this news release of bureau of labor statistics(bls) for accurate numbers: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

btc78

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Quote from: sheenshane on June 23, 2020, 06:40:41 PM

I can't tell more because I'm not a citizen in the US but based on my quick research I found out this stat that gives graphically results.

more than 30 million application?if this is the real count of people Unemployed then they are more than what Indian government has?
because the last Post I've read about India is they have added 14 million lose their job this pandemic.

Quote from: sheenshane on June 23, 2020, 06:40:41 PM

My thought is due to pandemic when the virus was rapidly spread and as far as I know, Trump declared suddenly shutdown of all kinds of businesses and shed millions of workers. But regarding high skilled worker suspension of a visa might have affected too.

At least Trump Prioritizing Health workers and farmers not like in my country that has not prioritizing farmers in which causing the crops are mishandled and throw in the garbage .

Quote from: sheenshane on June 23, 2020, 06:40:41 PM

Though the economy is not going to bounce back quickly or recover easily and I heard there are some other businesses that reopen this month but due to the amid covid19, it will affect the number of unemployed.

That is normal because the demand for products and service is lessen due to pandemic,But what we must see here is the effort of each government to slowly bringing back life to normal.

shoreno

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Quote from: leyton11 on June 27, 2020, 05:49:22 AM

This is a very important issue and it can greatly affect the overall economy of the world. We all know America is home to the world's largest heavy industry and services. When people here lose their jobs, the surrounding countries will be seriously affected.

yes it is . jobs is the one where people get money and if they dont have a job , they can be starve and die soon however i dont think this can affect other countries too because its only the problem of one country .

they decreased workers but this does not mean they wont continue operating thier business , that means they can still supply other countries or can still recieve stocks from other countries if they want to . i cant believe this happening to u.s country as that country is more wealthy than others .

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Quote from: fiulpro on June 24, 2020, 02:32:18 AM

[Unemployment Arrises because Government Fails to produce new jobs with respect to increasing population . Industrialization might be beneficial for the company but it does have problems for the workers .

What they need to do is :

• Create jobs online/offline
• Reserve a percentage of jobs for local people
• Don't disturb cryptocurrencies and other non governmental things , they are also providing jobs for a number for people.
• Instead of providing stimulus , use that money to make a local business
• Support local farmers , price might be high but then again you are getting non GMO quality products.
• Instead of wasting money on the police , send that money to nurses and hospitals for PPE , so that recovery can be made timely.
• Keep record of every family , employee people for doing that , see where the family needs support , don't provide them money , provide them jobs !!
• Keep a minimum wage requirement for the workers.

The government does not create jobs, the free market creates jobs. The U.S. government can step in during times of crisis to provide economic relief, but the money doesn't just come from thin air. The government artificially creating jobs works the same way and it's bizarre to me to see so many people requesting money from the government as if we don't have to pay it back over time. Investing money into useless jobs that won't create any sort of economic output is the same thing as torching money on fire. The PPP gave out loans to small businesses that saved some jobs, but it also gave out money to businesses that were guaranteed to default on their loans.

Local farmers already get tons of subsidies to produce certain crops. They're doing fine. And the police budget is not a federal government program so I'm not sure why you think they have free money to give. Police departments are ran by local officials and their budgets are allocated by the mayor of a given city. After you pay salaries and overtime for staff, there isn't much money to spare.

leyton11

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This is a very important issue and it can greatly affect the overall economy of the world. We all know America is home to the world's largest heavy industry and services. When people here lose their jobs, the surrounding countries will be seriously affected. But what I'm really worried about is that stocks in the US are still growing strongly. The government rescued the people, but the people used the money to invest in the stock market, while the economy was heavily delayed and there could be an economic crisis in the future. What do you think about this issue?

Assface16678

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We cannot deny that some of the country today are going to close their business which is part on the economic and getting feared to become infected on this virus and because of that there are some people does not have work.

Today the number of unemployed people is increasing because they quit their jobs and getting afraid to get infected on this virus and this may cause of having a low GDP on their country we cannot blame the people to avoid this virus attached on them it is better to become safe than risk your life to earn money.

bits4books

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I think this project is designed more for low-skilled personnel - no one will want to give away valuable personnel just like that (try sending someone from the flagships of silicon valley). But all sorts of "draft personnel" and low-average managers on salaries can quite go home to free up space for citizens of the country. Quite a good policy for me. First of all, we need to think about how to keep personnel and money in the economy and not let them flow out of the country (as happens with labor migrants).

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Quote from: Krabby on June 24, 2020, 03:46:37 AM

This time, the disease might break out again. Many workers will have to lose their jobs and face the prospect of no food to survive. This will affect the US economy very badly and it is likely that the market will witness strong sell-offs again. We should be more careful in our future business. disease can flare up again at any time.

What do you mean by "break out again"?

The disease is already a problem and I don't think we should use the word "again" since it is already here and continuously spreading across the nation. In our country, the cases are continuously increasing and the government already said that the vaccine might be next year. The US was hit by this pandemic, not just unemployment but some businesses were already closed. With the losses of some businesses, I think it is really inevitable for them to decrease their workers. Not just in the US but in a lot of countries as well. Fresh graduates are mainly affected by this too.

Kakmakr

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I think this is an election gimmick to piggyback onto his "America First" or "Let's make America great again" campaigns of the past couple of years. It only make sense that you would implement restrictions for external employment now before the elections... because it is the Americans with the voting rights.

After the elections things might change very fast, because industries love to use cheap labor from other countries and you will see a flood of immigrants entering the country again. Roll Eyes

Politicians just know who their target for votes is and it is definitely not people from other countries. The Mexicans will never vote for him after the "Big Wall" fiasco. Tongue

stompix

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Although the number of new claims has still gone up the number of continuous unemployment claims is going down,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-25/u-s-initial-jobless-claims-worse-than-forecast-for-second-week

I've taken a look at the claims per branch and activities that are still partially shut down in some states, one-quarter of them are in leisure and hospitality, the hardest hit, the more you go into specialized fields and tech the lower those number go.

Quote from: jackg on June 24, 2020, 10:56:18 AM

Quote from: stompix on June 23, 2020, 06:19:13 AM

If I high demand springs up somewhere you could train up a bunch of apprentices to work on the job rsther than hiring expensive graduates (which might become a problem for people who get told they need to be a graduate to get a job a few years ago)...

The more skills are needed for that job the harder it is to train a new person from the start, you will never get specialist in that domain next year just by training, it takes a lot more. That's why western Europe drains and relies on specialists from the Eastern block, you get doctors far cheaper than having to pay for 9 years of expensive education. Ironically enough the same specialist that loses their jobs can far easier switch to a lower-paid job done by people with basically no qualification. A job is still a job, better than being unemployed.
He is targeting the wrong sector...again...and again!

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Quote from: AniviaBtc on June 21, 2020, 12:55:11 PM

-snip-

What are your thoughts about this? Do you think that US will have an advantage on not employing workers due to this pandemic?
Will their economy be affected by this suspension on high-skilled worker's visas?

-snip-

Not even sure what they want right now. According to them, if this is going to help them revive their economy, well then that is a good news. But, what about long term development? I am sure suspension on high skilled work visas is going to affect the future economy of the country quite badly. There will be sudden demand of skilled workers, but employers will be forced to take in unskilled workers (just like the current police department. Lack of skilled officers and they are taking in anyone into the force no matter their qualification. They are still considered even if they fail their test! This is how bad the situation is).

wozzek23

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Quote from: AniviaBtc on June 21, 2020, 12:55:11 PM

What are your thoughts about this? Do you think that US will have an advantage on not employing workers due to this pandemic?
Will their economy be affected by this suspension on high-skilled worker's visas?

I think this is also happening in other places, the rate of unemployment is growing and companies has been hit hard by the pandemic and cannot continue to pay for some of their employees. This is going to be worst consequences of pandemic as job losses and low production of food and other day today life's requirements may get hit. Even pandemic comes to an end, this type of consequences may persist for at least next 2 years.

Although it’s not really all the companies that are in such position and some of them are against this idea of suspending visas that will allow them to employ foreigners. I have seen some oppositions and some have said that they are prevented from recruiting of workers that are seriously needed for a role. This was done to prevent people with the virus or that are living in such places where there are cases to have access to the US.

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Quote from: AniviaBtc on June 21, 2020, 12:55:11 PM

~Snipped~

What are your thoughts about this? Do you think that US will have an advantage on not employing workers due to this pandemic?
Will their economy be affected by this suspension on high-skilled worker's visas?

Definitely, the economic will be hampered by that move but then, the aim of the suspension of visas is to reduce the rate of the virus to a bare, manageable percentage until a vaccine or cure becomes available. It's a sacrifice that needs to be done. Unless the pandemic ends, normalcy won't return. The issue we should be more concerned about is how to survive the pandemic now that there are fewer jobs and opportunities. This is where the government can make it easy for citizens who are currently not working due to the pandemic. The truth is, If there's an alternative that allows people to stay at home and cater for their needs, it shouldn't be a problem. It's just worst when there's no other source of income and then there are no jobs.

el kaka22

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Let's hope that just because people were fired doesn't mean they will not be hired in the near future. I understand that companies couldn't make a profit during this period and the first thing they did was fire people since that is one of the biggest expenses, however the economy will recover eventually even if it takes a long time and companies will have to get bigger once again to make more profits which means they should be looking for new employees as well.

Some people may change places and some unemployed people even before this could have gotten a chance now that this happened and some people will have hard time finding a proper job. However as long as we recover decently enough and get back all of these unemployed people back to work we should be fine unless we fail this which means it is going to hurt a lot.

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Quote from: chip1994 on June 24, 2020, 02:51:14 AM

Reducing labor will greatly affect the economy. Even if it reduces the spread of disease, it will have a strong short-term impact. Many people will have to live in poverty and always in a shortage of food. But this is also a good solution for America's long-term future. They should cut down personnel in unnecessary industries now to ensure the safety of the country in the future.

At least the US government will do some action to at least Give this unemployed a alternative income ,even not that much but for the reason they need to eat daily and no one can help them but the Government .

Quote from: Alert31 on June 24, 2020, 06:55:55 AM

Not only in US but even here in our country unemployment keep on increasing. I think different countries are now experiencing a high numbers of unemployment due to pandemic that until now there is no cure. Is so sad because most of us will continue to a difficult living. Even we're going to save all that we have as long as we can but our needs continue daily.

according to this thread https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/covid-and-indian-economy-5257322 there are 140 million people lost their Job and still counting in India alone.

jackg

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Quote from: stompix on June 23, 2020, 06:19:13 AM

How the hell are those counted because till now I've seen numbers from 66k to 300k with a lot of values in the interval.
I've finally got to an official statement and this says:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/reports-studies/Characteristics_of_Specialty_Occupation_Workers_H-1B_Fiscal_Year_2019.pdf

Quote

The number of H-1B petitions approved increased 16.9 percent from 332,358 in FY 2018 to 388,403 in FY 2019.

more than all the papers are saying.
Seems India is going to be hit the hardest, they seem to have 80% of all the applications.

They would have been good choices in the past, EU companies are also cutting jobs, I doubt there will be an extra 30-300k whatever the number is of new jobs available to absorb this offer, it might actually bring paychecks down, nobody will pay you a lot more when they have 10 people waiting in line for your job demanding half.

I do wonder how much information governments keep on visas they issue, they might just have a number or information somewhere in case they need it although I imagine this is another thing the US government inherited from the UK - an irrational fear of any data or files being kept...

And yeah but a wage reduction of specialist roles may allow more people to fill it and different ways for them to be entered... If I high demand springs up somewhere you could train up a bunch of apprentices to work on the job rsther than hiring expensive graduates (which might become a problem for people who get told they need to be a graduate to get a job a few years ago)...

dothebeats

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This might just be a saving face for Trump, as this decision may benefit most American workers but it'll be hurting the American companies and other businesses that are established on the American soil. Then again, they aren't given the luxury of choosing better options since they are pretty limited as of now. While some countries are already slowly recovering from the pains of the pandemic, the US is still trying to get a grip of what's happening considering that they are by far the country with the highest incidence of infection. It will take a while before they get something going, but for now, Trump has no other option but to let go off some of the skilled, alien workers and prioritize his own.

Topic: Rise in US unemployment. Thoughts? - page 10. (Read 1892 times)