Topic: Rise in US unemployment. Thoughts? - page 4. (Read 1898 times)

Well, if we look at history, China has always been a superpower, bar the last 200 years, as they completely missed the industrial revolution that boosted western economies. As this brief parenthesis is going to close, they are now ready to regain their superpower status. They are ruling their economic influence sphere (naval power in the China Sea), they have a massive army and weapons. let alone economic power, or R&D in future technologies, when Chinese students will have good enough research institute that will allow them to stay in China instead opf fleeing to the US universities.


Spot on. This is actually the only long term effect that can massively hurt the efforts made in the last 30 years. Keep in mind that welfare in China is basically non existent, and that when the population pyramid will be inverted (less youth to maintain a large portion of inactive population) the situation could quickly implode.

You bring some good points and I am aware of the demographic crisis that is coming to China due to their policies however there is also the possibility that once US happens to fall out of their spot as the only superpower around the world that no country takes its place and instead we are left in a world with local powers that cannot extend their power as far as we have been used during the last centuries, this could be a huge change and we will see how countries adapt to this new hypothetical reality.

As detailed in below article, US unemployment rate is right now worse than The Great Recession, which officially lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.

Unemployment rose higher in three months of COVID-19 than it did in two years of the Great Recession

The problem on the rise of the unemployment rate is not just the problem of US because I think almost all of the countries affected by the pandemic do also share the same issue. Well, it was not a new issue to hear anymore because it is really an expected effect of the pandemic on which the government have to do something to control the spread of the virus and that includes the temporary closure of work places, business establishments and public places in order to control the spread of virus because those stated are vulnerable for the wide spread of virus.

The government will not do such an action for nonsense. We all know that many are directly affected by the loss of their jobs because of that implementation but it is the best thing to do as of the moment so that there will be no more further damage that will cost lives. Although the economic state of the country will be affected most specially US is known to be one of the richest and largest country in the world, the president have no choice but to temporary close down establishments even if it will make the unemployment rate to rise because if will not do such, the number of the cases on which they are the one who is leading will just continue to rise.

But after a couple of months of lockdown, I guess US is slowly reopen their business establishments following the recommendation of the WHO to exhibit strict health protocols which I guess is a good thing because it will make job opportunities and that would lessen the unemployment rate of US.

If you mean quarantine, then quarantine and complete isolation will kill the economy completely, while the entire population of the country will not only be depressed, but starvation will begin, as well as an increase in crime, which cannot be allowed. The government must act more sensibly. It is necessary to maintain certain quarantine measures, but allow the enterprise and small business to work at full strength, but for each person to wear personal protective equipment, while all places of mass gathering of people, including public transport, must also impose certain restrictions on the number of people and on distance between them, while providing decontamination facilities for all of its customers. These precautions will make it possible to reduce the number of unemployed in the country, maintain a stable economic recovery and at the same time prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

Lock down is not a good thing to do right now, unless the government always try to give more stimulus to make their economic going to better, although that is the risky thing to do. This virus has given many impact for all sector and for all countries, I don't know if there is a country who didn't hit the corona virus. Unemployment is increasing not only in the US but by the countries that have cooperation (in economic terms) with the US.

It's a long long journey before China can shift the US position as a great power. China temporarily only dominates trade and finance. In the next few years, the world demography will change where China will get karma due to birth control policies that were imposed from 1978 to 2015. The demographic crisis and the increase in the elderly community in the future is a break in China's hopes of continuing trade domination.

The US remains mighty with currency domination, military dominance, influence dominance, and political dominance. This is what distinguishes between great power and superpower. The US has superpowers, that is, the integration of power so that it has a great influence on the world.

The $600 per week emergency unemployment benefits are set to expire in a few days. Republicans are aiming to pass a reduced version (cutting back payments by roughly 2/3) but they are delaying introduction of the bill until next week, and surely negotiations will take another few weeks.

I get the feeling they want use the benefit expiration to squeeze the unemployed into taking jobs they don't want. Then they'll pass another stimulus package with reduced benefits. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/07/24/unemployment-benefits-congress-coronavirus/

Regarding direct stimulus payments, the Treasury Secretary says they are planning on the same thing as March. Another round of $1,200 payments. Whenever the bill passes, it should boost the markets.

It is difficult to imagine for people a world where the US is not the only superpower but that only shows the lack of historical awareness that people have, all previous empires that at some point were the most advanced and developed around the world have fallen and I do not see why the US will be different, this does not mean a complete fall it just means that another nation will over take them and switch positions with them and right now the most likely candidate seems to be China.

First things is, we all know that the pandemic was not caused by those who has been there,or those who may be told to step back. I'm sure they will have to step down those with lesser impact while those worker with key functions will be retained. This action is in 2ways by me.Technology would be allowed to take up more functions. It may have a little down effect on the economy but for a short time. The government are also not to be blamed because this virus needs to be drastically curtailed by all necessary means.

This graph is not mine, but from a series of articles by Ray Dalio. I linked it just below the post.
The message has more to do with the scheme, the sequence of events, rather than the power of the empire (the height of the graph) or the lifespan of the empire (the length of the arc). In the article Ray puts the beginning on the US ARC at the beginning of the XIX century,  right after the  American Revolutionary War, while the tops is just after WWII. Hence you could extrapolate a little bit, even if I don't think the velocity across the arc is required to be constant.
As I repeated many times, defaults happen slowly at start , then all of a sudden.

Despite all the consequences that the United States is facing due to the coronavirus pandemic, I have no doubt that America will cope with all the problems. Of course, the economic crisis and unemployment has its negative impact on the overall situation in the country, But unlike other countries, in the United States of America, in my opinion, the government and state structures work like clockwork, supporting not only business, but also people. Perhaps I do not see the full picture of what is happening, because I live in Ukraine, where the economic situation is much more complicated, although the problem with the coronavirus is lower in percentage terms. Nevertheless, we are much worse at coping with the situation than the United States.
In addition, one of the main government decisions is to reduce the number of Ostarbeiters from other countries in the United States in order to provide as many jobs as possible for the citizens of the country.

Quite a gloomy prognostication! What kind of timeline do you put on this cycle?

I don't disagree in theory, but the system seems quite adept at sustaining itself longer than expected. At this point, most market participants still have a very strong interest in maintaining stability.

It is not surprising that even US who is one of the biggest and richest country in the world experience the same thing that other countries do also have which is the latest issue of the rise unemployment rate that is due to the existence if this pandemic. Actually it is not literally the want of the government to make the workers jobless at times like this but it is a necessary response and action that is needed to be done to help lessen or to stop the spreading of virus since there is a lot of potential that this infectious disease can be transferred on a work place that does not exhibit physical distancing on a normal scenario.

For sure the US economic states is seriously affected by this unemployment of many people for they were the one of the keys why an economy works and progress. With no man power, the flow and production of goods and services will become dull and dead which will have a negative impact and that would be reflected as the economic declination of the US. It is not really the government's intention to do such thing but for the sake of its people's safety, maybe people would think it as a cruel action but it is a must thing to do to save people's lives since US is still leading with the most number of cases and high death poll.

Good thing that WHO and health officials have suggested a "new normal" approach to somehow get things back to normal but on a limited capacity to exhibit social distancing and this would let business establishments to operate that would give people opportunity to get back to work and this can lessen the rate of unemployment during this pandemic.

I am sorry for his situation and I hope they recover well but they should be getting some money from the government for their troubles, right? Because I am very sure I was reading an article that clearly mentioned that people in US will be getting a good sum of money per month to maintain the economy.

I don't think the economy is recovering as you mentioned, I don't agree with it because the situation is just getting more and more out of control. I mean people had some savings and they survived initial lock downs but now everyone is getting in a situation where they don't have much money to survive being locked in their place and have to move out for work.

The US is not the only country experiencing the issue of unemployment due to this covid-19 pandemic because there are also lots of countries who are currently on the same scenario. I think it is not appropriate to say that the president of US is prioritizing the case of unemployment because it was a real deal that business establishments must be temporarily close amid with the existence of the pandemic so that people most specially workers will not get infected by the virus since they can be prone to transfer the infectious disease working on the field with many workers together in a work place.

Many countries are doing the same thing and it is one of the ways possible to be done to protect many people from the threat of the covid-19. The rise of the unemployment rate of US will not be an advantage because it is actually a burden and other countries do also think like that because the economy will be down and citizens will just rely their needs from the government because they have nothing to earn and spend for their daily necessities.

Surely the economy of US will be affected on getting their high skilled workers unemployed because they were the ones who are making the economy lively and productive. Their loss in the work field will directly affect US economy but they still have nothing to do because it is an important action needed to be done to keep the people safe. But as of the moment, other countries are executing the "new normal" set up wherein workers can now get back to work following strict health protocols and minimal working capacity to exhibit physical distancing. I guess if this would happen to US, the rate of unemployment would be lessen for there would be workers that can now get back to their works.

Unemployement rate has risen in all around the globe.
Coronavirus hit all industries - especially the tourism industry significantly and a lot of people lost their jobs due to lockdowns and social distancing facts.
The US will not have high rate imho. They didn't do a long term lockdown as other countries did.

There are really people who got affected because of the unemployment rates, actually my uncle is part of those unemployment rate rises because he loses his permanent job because of the pandemic and he is now thinking on how his family survive. There are a lot of people are now suffering because of the unemployment rate and there are affect to our economy for sure. The world economy collapsed but it is now recovering, if there will be a vaccine that will be available in the market; for sure that we will back into our lives.

Vacant position for what, if it's about the job, then for sure there will be people who will fill that, the unemployment rate which is high is already enough evidence that there's no job for everyone.


That depends on the government, but I think they'll prioritize their citizen first to solve the increasing unemployment rate, Trump is always vocal that american should be prioritize in their own land.

What does this image suggests?



We are after the "Economic Downturn" and "Money Printing Phase"

You know what is coming next.

Source: a very nice article by Ray Dalio.

Chapter 4: The Big Cycle of the United States and the Dollar, Part 1