Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 205. (Read 387552 times)

Forget about fairness. You're not gonna make money on fairness.

The units of Nxt does not matter any more, Nxt has become something more than a currency.
It is now a platform for trading and business. It has a true decentralised and active exchange.

Thing is with xcp is they are just arbitrary tokens and completely unnecessary, correct me if Im wrong but I seem to remember when researching when counterparty was first announced that the XCP tokens were a) not needed and b) essentially worthless.

Don't forget how "fair" was the distribution of NXT.

( I missed the train, yeah, but still a fact. )

I said it before but I repeat it :
Using 2 blockchains add the possible flaws/risks from both.
If you want a real innovative PoS, go for Nxt.

Mastercoin and Counterparty, both run on Bitcoin network as their transport blockchain.
Out of those two XCP is a better choice, but neither of the two can compare to NXT.
Bitcoin network is just slow to trade on.

What the heck is MSC and XCP?

JUST hold BTC, MSC, XCP and NXT.

Fantastic post Risto and some really good points made, also possibly one of the best attempts Ive seen to quantify the support of an alt.

I particularly like the point about how often devs and other so called large holders of an alt don't have the BTC to back up their holdings and thus you end up in an uncontrollable downward spiral.

One point I would question is what makes you say you cant sufficiently support 10 alts? I agree that by holding 1 the conclusion is that you have a very strong support for that alt but with a decent BTC stash, at least financially 10 alts could be supported. I agree it is impossible to  divide your time in terms of dev and support to that many alts. Lets not forget there have been many opportunities since XMR markets opened to gain .1% for roughly 30 BTC and with other alts if you catch them early, a much higher % than that.

Other than that though I think your closest Ive seen to being able to gauge real alt support.

^

There's one issue. Greed.

You have a castle, unicorns and batmobiles.

Other people dream of that. It's hard to make them stick just to one altcoin. There must be motivation.
A good development team needs funds ( to be motivated ) to work.


What you're saying is actually okay, but kind of impossible. If it was like that, we wouldn't have altcoins, after BTC.


-KSMC

Wow it seems my last post to my Altcoin observer was a good 11 pages ago 

Let's try something with this one:

I've been thinking about how to quantify the support behind altcoins with some quantitative metric. The start for any such analysis is of course the market cap. Then there is the estimated number of users, or the estimated number of owners (perhaps with a cutoff grade), otoh it might be possible to quantify the strength of the devteam in a way, and the possibilities are many.

What I came to think is the following metric (somebody can write it in Math, I'll just spell it in English):

Each crypto investor's crypto wealth (measured in BTC) is divided into as many equal parts as he holds different coins, given that his % holding of that altcoin's coins in circulation is at least equal to his % holding of BTC's coins in circulation. These parts are credited to the respective altcoins. The sum of these equals the support to the said altcoin.

Example:
Mr. Rich holds 10,000 BTC and an equal amount of XMR + 1,000 DOGE. Since his XMR holding is significant (higher % of coins in circulation than his BTC holding), it is counted, whereas the DOGE holding is not.

=> The fortune is credited to support BTC and XMR equally, 5,000 BTC each.

Conclusion:
XMR is already in top #X of alts, despite the market cap being in the middle range. This is because the tremendous support (calculated in the following way) from BTC powerhouses who seldom give their support to many or any of the coins between BTC and XMR in the marketcap table.

Discussion:
The formula downplays the "support" to the coins where people have invested most of their wealth in, since these kinds of situations often arise from circumstances outside of those people's control. My support to BTC for example cannot realistically go to much higher level should it rise another 1,000%, as I am already all in and tax and other considerations weigh heavily on whether I can ever sell much of the stash. Also it weighs down those altcoins with pump&dumpish character (unrich people unable to actually support the coin, buying too much, trying to make a quick buck) and premined/IPOed coins (dev/"dev" holding a shitton of coins, unable to support any more than he is already doing, and probably holding dozens of other coins also, just in case this one goes sour).

The formula magnifies the "support" to the coins where people who have no selfish reason to buy a coin (BTC whales who cannot motivate the purchase by making money as they are too big to operate in the alt universe exchanges) do it anyway in such quantities that it matters (the cutoff grade for somebody holding BTC13k is to hold 0.1% of the alt, which is huge, and requires planning to even source somehow). Also the fewer altcoins you are invested in, the more support the formula credits to each one of them, which is kind of obvious. You cannot support 10 altcoins credibly so that anyone would be affected. By holding only one, the effect is huge.

Why the supporter's total wealth is used, is also because the price support in the exchanges. With a typical p&d coin, at the top of the pump, the coin represents a large % of the wealth of those who are/have been/ever will be interested in it. There is no willingness or even ability to cushion the fall. With XMR (or any coin that ranks well in my formula), there are people holding 1 or (typically) 2 orders of magnitude more BTC than XMR, which provides the buy support at whichever level the market clears. This cannot prevent the price rises, but will efficiently cap the falls, due to the rapidly rising buy support at any price in the range of 0.004->0.002, the latter of which we will never see again.

I sold my last Litecoin 6 months ago. You're a bit late.

Perhaps, by all means wait and see but like most things in the crypto world those who panic last get burned just like the people who panic bought up at around .009 + when it was obviously going to correct. My advice would be to get any BTC you were going to invest and just invest 10-15% and wait and see if your worried about being burnt. One of the best things about XMR at the moment is that the inflation means that big run ups are often bought back into line fairly quickly and thus you wont get left too far behind before there's another chance to get on the train.

I might be cementing a 40% loss in LTC if I sell it now. Should i sell anyway for xmr?

Should we put a warning in the alt section that says:

"Sold your LTC and Buy Monero as soon as possible."  ?

hmm so buy buy buy.

We will see, keep looking at it not exactly over whelming me at the moment. Perhapse its the Alt burns on my finger tips from last time.

I sold almost all of my LTC's and bought Monero.

It seems a wise investment decision to at least throw a few % at Monero, its by far the most interesting crypto Ive seen in a while. The prices right now are almost hilariously undervalued and Im taking this opportunity to buy more at prices that wont be visited again.

Does Monero have an alternative, desirable destination besides the moon? I'm checking Expedia and have a BTC burning a hole in my pocket.

Putting on a spacesuit just to go outside seems kind of 1960s to me. I think.."To da penthouse in Singapore" or "I just bought Dick Clark's old mansion in Malibu" seem more fitting for version 2.0. Not to take anything away from a nice castle.

Thanks for the replies!

I'm downloading the wallet now and I will increase my Monero holdings to 10-15% today/tomorrow and maybe up to 20% later when I read more about it and play around with some small amounts.

OK https://monerotalk.org/t/bounty-create-a-useful-tutorial-on-how-to-setup-monero-closed/13

10% you say?  I had 100% in btc.  Of that I put a significant % in Monero. 

Btc is a sure thing.  Monero I haven't a clue.  So why did I do it?  I'm blaming the mirror neurons.