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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 241. (Read 387493 times)

legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
June 02, 2014, 03:09:32 AM
The market is stupid enough to value XC and DRK

What "value" does DRK have compared to LTC?

Coins number adjusted, if LTC had 4.3mn coins (same as DRK) it would cost 60-70$. And these, for what? What does LTC offer compared to DRK?

and developed coin

What exactly have they developed?

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1001
things you own end up owning you
June 02, 2014, 03:09:16 AM
Anyone betting on LTC to rebounce hard ? It seems we might have hit bottom at 0.017. I dont believe for a second in this coin but what do I know ? The market is stupid enough to value XC and DRK, he may be stupid enough to think litecoin value will surge as usual during a bitcoin bubble.

What does Aminorex' monkey think about that? Does he ever speculate on the idiocy of a market?

what do you know? you seem enough stupid to think LTC the second coin the almost old 3 years coin the most accepted, traded, used and developed coin wont surge !!!!
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
June 02, 2014, 03:03:58 AM
Anyone betting on LTC to rebounce hard ? It seems we might have hit bottom at 0.017. I dont believe for a second in this coin but what do I know ? The market is stupid enough to value XC and DRK, he may be stupid enough to think litecoin value will surge as usual during a bitcoin bubble.

What does Aminorex' monkey think about that? Does he ever speculate on the idiocy of a market?
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1049
May 31, 2014, 05:43:58 PM
LTC is extremely important in terms of providing much needed Crypto Universe liquidity...

What does that even mean?


legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 31, 2014, 04:17:41 PM
tax dodgers


extortion evaders would be my preferred term because it is more accurate.  involuntary taxation can be a form of extortion.  i am not here to debate the boundaries.  anonymous crypto makes drawing those lines a responsibility of the owner.  but there are other forms of extortion, such as kidnapping, threats of arson or bodily harm, originated by a non-state actor, which are no less desirable to defend against.  i really don't care whether the person with superior arms who is threatening me is a member of a national security organization or a freelancer.  my concern is not exposing my children to abduction, torture.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 31, 2014, 04:01:21 PM
Ahh ok. And where you know that from?

He knows it because most 5 star posters know that L3 cache latency is not an ASIC or GPU deterrent.

It most certainly is a GPU deterrent to some extent. Whether there a clever work around remains to be seen. Even if there is, the GPU factor will likely be low and still may not be economically viable (compared to near-zero-cost CPU mining).

It is less clear whether it is an ASIC deterrent. It is clearly not at some (potentially impossible) market cap, but the actual market conditions where it makes sense to try to compete with CPU R&D are not clear. Your point about putting actual numbers on this is valid.

legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 31, 2014, 03:49:22 PM
In regards to cloud-scale computing, they'll quickly be mining at a loss if enough everyday miners (ie those with a computer at home) mine at a loss since they probably won't worry as much about their relatively small electric bill vs active EC2, et alia costs. I probably mine at a loss now (given current exchange rates) but I don't mind the extra few dollars per month on my electricity bill with my otherwise underutilized processor and I would be more willing to risk just that given the potential end game than increasing my risk moreso by renting cloud computing.

This. Run the numbers, its pretty easy to see. Cloud mining is not competitive with small scale home mining. It only works when a coin is new and unknown and home miners are small in number. If a coin gets popular enough and is easy to mine, cloud mining is not remotely viable.

This shouldn't really be surprising because of you look around at what happens in IT, cloud is often replaced once a startup reaches the scale for it. There are a few exceptions that are probably strategic in some ways that are unclear to me (e.g. netflix).

The exception being the subset of cloud mining that runs on fraudulently-obtained resources (promotion abuse, stolen credit cards, etc.) but that is basically a botnet.

legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 31, 2014, 03:45:57 PM
Anonymous currency ... as the amounts grow larger, the risks aren't worth it.  If Alice has financial dealings with Bob but genuinely doesn't know and cannot discover who Bob is, then Bob will occasionally rip off Alice secure in the knowledge that nothing can be proven.  As this happens more often, Alice will learn to refuse to do business anonymously.  Once you're talking about value that is worth the effort to rip off, you're talking about a negative value proposition for 'hard' financial anonymity. ...  once they're into transactions big enough that they're afraid of getting ripped off?  Then they want to be dealing in assets that the police can trace and the courts can recover.

Transacting with an anonymous party requires proofs.  It's complicated, and it's only getting started -- it is a new thing.  It's not the primary use case for an anonymous currency.  The primary use case is transacting with friends, family, business associates, or in-person transactions. Outside of that circle, the first large area is escrowed transactions.  More advanced forms of transaction with embedded proof will be a burgeoning area of economic development at some point in the future, but it is not worth discussing them now.  They are a red herring, for the time being.

Courts are perfectly capable of recovering crypto, whether it is anonymous or not.  The standards of proof will, of course, be higher initially, and then on par with cash transactions thereafter.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 31, 2014, 03:42:02 PM
Once someone has designed a chip it is extremely expensive to make any changes to the PoW function, but software solutions (CPU and/or GPU) can be tweaked a little at almost no cost.

Have the algorithm change pseudo-randomly, to another hash algorithm, depending on the time at which hash rate crosses a threshold.  If the space of hash algorithms is large enough, that pretty much destroys ASIC, because of the large amount of die space required to hold all the recombinant blocks, and the solution is fully decentralized.

Somewhat. There is an argument (undemonstrated AFAIK) that an ASIC for say X11 is still viable because the space of primitives used by the various hash functions is pretty small, allowing for a programmable ASIC. Something like what has been proposed for Etherium where the PoW has to run actual (otherwise useful) programs may be better, but this is all theory.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1000
103 days, 21 hours and 10 minutes.
May 31, 2014, 03:39:48 PM
Buy support for this is incredible.  That wall  Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 31, 2014, 03:35:40 PM
My question is what will stop the miners from dumping?

Hopefully, nothing.  More coins for me, and I don't have to pay EC2 bills.  (Actually, I mine QCN and roll it into MRO right now, but that free money is likely to dry up pretty quickly.)
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 31, 2014, 03:29:02 PM
Once someone has designed a chip it is extremely expensive to make any changes to the PoW function, but software solutions (CPU and/or GPU) can be tweaked a little at almost no cost.

Have the algorithm change pseudo-randomly, to another hash algorithm, depending on the time at which hash rate crosses a threshold.  If the space of hash algorithms is large enough, that pretty much destroys ASIC, because of the large amount of die space required to hold all the recombinant blocks, and the solution is fully decentralized.
legendary
Activity: 1588
Merit: 1000
May 31, 2014, 03:24:03 PM
some of you say that Litecoin wont succeed because it failed the ASIC proof claim !!!!... where and when the Devs or Coblee or any big investor pointed to litecoin as an ASIC "proof" ? they always said "resistant" which was important for the coin survival at the time....there is nothing ASIC proof, it is not if we can make ASIC for this coin or that coin but when is it profitable to make a one, and when it is made it means that the coin is going mainstream.


no one gives a fuck about the hashing algorithm except miners, investors/adopters care only about the utility and opportunities, market cap,development, services.... and dont give a shit about that hashing algorithm and pure technical stuff, and what matters to me as an investor is for the last 6 months Litecoin is really going crazy, take a look at the daily transactions volume and the trading volume against Bitcoin.

Remember, from looking at the history of litecoin price it is always lagging comparing to Bitcoin, but it always make a boom, and usually a bigger one.






I like this fucking post!!!!!

People are always down on LTC...
Because when priced in BTC it always looks like a laggard.

Since I, like most functional people, pay 99% of my bills in USD or equivalent major currency...
Let's look at commodities like LTC versus BTC in USD... you know, the green stuff that keeps you on the street:

.......... Jan 2013.....Apr 2013...... May 2014

BTC...... $16.000..... $145.00........ $600.00...... up 3,750%     
LTC........ $0.065........ $3.35......... $11.00...... up 16,900%

Wow, that's not even the interesting part...
LTC returns are magnified even more by switching to LTC when BTC is strong and vice versa...
Like right now LTC is "dead", "pointless", "asic fail", etc = time to buy LTC.

LTC is extremely important in terms of providing much needed Crypto Universe liquidity...
It's not about the hashing algo or specs like the dude said.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 31, 2014, 03:22:00 PM
GPU accelleration of some part of the cryptonight hash is a certainty.  Already, CPUs with AES support are a massive win, relative to other CPUs.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
May 31, 2014, 02:47:18 PM
I think Monero has a real future.  All the same, I'd love to see someone combine the privacy of Cryptonote with GPU mining.  Botnets are a real problem for CPU mining, and ASICs are a real problem because they centralize the hashrate among a few players and don't help small time miners who eventually become users of the currency.  GPUs are really the best compromise.

Botnets shouldn't be a long term threat because if CN became widespread enough and actually stayed CPU-only, then the price of botnets would rise to the market price of their computing power. In addition, botnets have a shrinkingly finite supply, especially because as more people mine, there are less potential CPUs to be a part of botnets.

In regards to cloud-scale computing, they'll quickly be mining at a loss if enough everyday miners (ie those with a computer at home) mine at a loss since they probably won't worry as much about their relatively small electric bill vs active EC2, et alia costs. I probably mine at a loss now (given current exchange rates) but I don't mind the extra few dollars per month on my electricity bill with my otherwise underutilized processor and I would be more willing to risk just that given the potential end game than increasing my risk moreso by renting cloud computing.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
May 31, 2014, 02:03:22 PM
Just wanted to chime in that Monero is NOT CPU-only, if it hasn't already been covered. GPU MRO mining software just hasn't yet been developed publicly yet.

I just want to point out my views on this particular point.

If you read the CryptoNote white paper they discuss how the focus on being CPU only is a good thing, as essentially the mining is like voting, voting for transaction order, for things to be added into the coin, etc...

I believe this is a flawed premise based on the existence of cloud services and botnets.

The cloud one is particularly important as it simply states that whoever can buy enough instances for that time (that a feature gets added?) they decide the final fate.

I also believe ASIC mining is of a negative nature because it concentrates power into several manufacturing bodies and they always sell the miners above the cost they run their own farms.

I think that GPU mining is the best mining paradigm at the moment. Perhaps the idea of the proof of work being useful that also isn't gamed could also be worthwhile.

The reason I replied here is that, a lot of people might panic when the first Monero miner comes along, I say this: don't panic, it's for the best.

The only way the GPU one becomes questionable is if the GPU manufacturers start their own farms for below the cost of retail. I hope that never happens. (If someone has a good argument why that won't happen I will be happy to hear it.)


legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1000
May 31, 2014, 01:43:46 PM
Ahh ok. And where you know that from?

He knows it because most 5 star posters know that L3 cache latency is not an ASIC or GPU deterrent.  In terms of fiddling with memory to try and stop or slow down GPU/ASIC, increasing the raw amount needed is the only viable method, and even that is just semi-effective.  It depends how high the coin's market cap goes before there is enough incentive to try.  Someone who has in-depth knowledge of ASIC manufacturing could probably work out a calculation that says, "the vertcoin algorithm is effective approximately up to X million or billion dollars market cap"
legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1011
Monero Evangelist
May 31, 2014, 12:46:33 PM
Ahh ok. And where you know that from?
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
May 31, 2014, 12:28:07 PM
Just wanted to chime in that Monero is NOT CPU-only, if it hasn't already been covered. GPU MRO mining software just hasn't yet been developed publicly yet.
legendary
Activity: 1162
Merit: 1007
May 31, 2014, 11:08:26 AM
Quote
On that note, imagine launching Monero as a spin-off.  This would bootstrap the coin with an already efficient distribution, and would greatly reduce the inflation rate which is hurting the coin currently.  I believe a spin-off would out-compete Monero itself and I may be interested in helping with its launch.  Developers could still profit by mining the first new coins while difficulty is low.

It's a mistake to believe that the inflation rate is hurting Monero. Rather, it's distributing it cheaply as far as I am concerned. The problem with piggybacking on an existing, distributed blockchain is that there is no longer any reasonable chance of a distribution that is widespread.

Exactly: it is helpful to achieve a widespread distribution for a low cost.  The premise behind spin-offs is that they achieve a widespread and efficient distribution without even having to go through an awkward high-inflation stage and with less resources spent on the initial mining.  This is why it's called "bootstrapping" with the Blockchain distribution: spin-offs take advantage of the work done by the mining and trading processes that already took place with bitcoin.  

Quote
For instance with Bitcoin, if you launched it as a merged mining chain, you add all the insecurity of merged mining (usually a single large pool can destroy the currency) while distributing the coins mostly to large ASIC farms. This is less than ideal.

The spin-off concept is orthogonal to merge mining.  A spin-off could use any mechanism the developer chooses for achieving consensus.  

And the spin-off process still rewards developer innovation: if PoW is chosen, the developers can take advantage of the information asymmetry to mine a greater portion of the new coins available while difficultly is low.  If PoS is chosen, the developers will likely be among the first to begin staking.  

Quote
Right now large, large quantities of MRO are being mined and dumped by licit (or possibly illicit) compute clusters, which are readily dumping into the market. Speculators are buying with their own cash, and won't let go of their coins until they realize a profit. In the meantime, the supply is falling regularly and will press the market upwards. I'm not terribly worried about the recent dumps, they're redistributing wealth.

Here's a thought experiment:

Assume there is long-term demand for Cryptonote technology and assume Monero becomes the dominant blockchain.  At a point 2 years in the future, the people holding Monero will (for the most part) be a subset of the people holding bitcoin.  Like you implied, it is in Monero's best interest to maximize the size of this subset.  But in order to do so, bitcoin holders need to trade BTC for MRO or do work to acquire them.  Let's say the total cost to achieve this distribution is C_monero.

Next assume that a spin-off clone of MRO becomes the dominant blockchain.  At some point in the future, the people holding the clone will likely be mostly the same people that would have held MRO at the 2-year-mark (the same subset of bitcoin users).  Let's say the total cost to achieve this distribution is C_spinoff.

Which process has the lower total cost?  I think it is fairly clear that C_spinoff < C_monero.  That being said, I don't think it automatically follows that the spin-off will necessarily outcompete the original, as the actual dynamics are complex.  But I'm keen to see how a spin-off launch would play out...


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