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Topic: rpietila Altcoin Observer - page 58. (Read 387491 times)

hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 500
September 02, 2014, 12:17:11 PM
the whole fuckin cryptoscene is in the bearished mode since at least 12 months - a look at the speculation subforum is reading like capitulation Cheesy


regarding xmrs price what really interests me is at which point we find a new low. I have a feeling but let us see
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
September 02, 2014, 12:12:23 PM
aminorex was being mean, so I diffused the conflict with some humor.   Grin Grin
That's funny.  I thought I was being nice and you were being mean.
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
September 02, 2014, 11:58:29 AM
Litecoin prices are still well constrained by the bubble collapse resistance trendline. This is the one-week resolution chart from BTC-e vs the dollar. If the price pattern over the last four weeks is a damped oscillation, then prices should converge near the present level of $4.7. At that level, prices reach the trendline again in the second week of October.

donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
September 02, 2014, 11:34:36 AM
"I wouldn;t do anything more than virtual work for such virtual money..."

Yup. And the bolded one is spot on. Any one designing a crypto-currency better understand who the target market is.

It is possible that there will indeed be a govmoney, which is used to buy things that government produces extracts from the economy, such as taxes, sickness industry, public brainwash (sorry the official names are healthcare and education, but they are so far from the actual meaning in a full 1984esque style that I just cannot restrict myself...Sad ).

Then the free people want to use their free money to store their savings and transact between them. Monero is such a money. If it never grows bigger, it can still function between the limited number of users, who are not in it for getting rich anyway.

Bitcoin is in-between.

I have always thought that it is a "failure" for crypto to fail to become the money of the governed public. But as for me, I take a small free currency over a huge controlled one any day.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1015
September 02, 2014, 11:23:45 AM
That's why I do not support Zerocash. WIth Ring Signatures you can have full anonymity and still be Legal(so you're transaction history is still known by you incase of anything), while zerocash doesnt have such things.

This, plus questionable mathematics and the israeli government involvement and accumulator issues makes Zerocash a no go.

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
September 02, 2014, 11:14:34 AM

Degree of anonymity is subjective. Very few people want full secrecy (ie off-grid), because to have a functioning society, there has to be government (read: civil protection) at some level. It can be Federal, State, County, Parish or Local, but human society is made of connected individuals.

All those levels of govt. are interested (and not interested) in various degrees according to their remits.

The privacy is not for gov, its for the people, gov should be as transparent as possible and people's stuff as private as possible, this is the ideal society.

I myself, do not want full secrecy in the sense that no one, even myself, can see my transaction history when it comes to transmitting money. Have you not seen the bombings that threaten cities worldwide? From the boston bombing that claimed a few lives, to ISIS taking over bases in the middle east?

Full secrecy would allow child molesters, terrorist organizations, violent racial groups, gangs, corrupt governments(north korea), etc to grow even more without anyone being able to take them down, especially when it comes to transmitting money..

That's why I do not support Zerocash. WIth Ring Signatures you can have full anonymity and still be Legal(so you're transaction history is still known by you incase of anything), while zerocash doesnt have such things.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
September 02, 2014, 10:08:09 AM
Where can I read the resumes of the Monero developers? I see only 37 year old Frenchman David Latapie's Linkedin, which frankly isn't that impressive for a client programs programmer (at least not what I can see without logging in). Appears he is more of a business development or corporate/enterprise processes guy.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
September 02, 2014, 09:49:16 AM
As for my marketing genius, see my CoolPage button blinking all over the past two pages of these threads (16 years after it was launched)! I didn't pay a single centavo to have my banner ad reposted by others. They did it spontaneously. (Quite embarrassing actually)

This is why it is insane for me to post here. Because I could waste all my time on the misunderstandings various flippant readers have, because they haven't read sufficiently. And you sir don't respect past performance (like most others here don't respect past performance).

Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

I find it quite distressing to see people flailing around wildly like this. You offer far too vague a problem statement to take seriously at face value, any significant effort to respond would be futile because its substance would simply disappear into the definitional chasms running through your sketchy landscape.

Progress in this area is most unlikely to happen without a lot more informed effort being devoted to characterising the users. The most generous phrase I can find to describe the current effort is "hopelessly amateur". It's generous because the ineptitude is an obvious consequence of the influence of a technical community that openly prides itself on its ignorance of psychology, sociology, semiotics, marketing and other disciplines of the “soft sciences”. If you really can't articulate the details of the key factors underlying Dogecoin's undeniable appeal to users then you shouldn't aspire to hold an opinion on the subject.

If you think that's a bit brutal, I can offer this adapted quote: “You really have no business creating your own cryptocurrency if you don't understand marketing well enough to figure out how to achieve large-scale adoption without somebody else's help.”

A moment's reflection should inform you that each of the cited examples (celeb endorsement, corporate adoption or government takeover) is merely a proxy for “just about anyone with a well-resourced and effective marketing function” (which, you may be astounded to learn, does not equate to “advertising”).

Cheers

Graham

Seems you failed to read a few posts:

One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

"Anonymint" develops his perfect coin and "jl777" markets the thing via SuperNet ..

From the little I've been of his discombobulated writing style, I don't think he could market his way out of a wet brown paper bag.

That he is getting any air play seems to indicate how weak the current altcoin scene is.

I'm not sure in what sense you mean "maximizing transactions."

I mean it from many different scopes, even including how to get the coin into spenders' hands at wide scale.

My 0.01% - 0.03% guesstimate was 600,000 to 1.8 million based on world population of 6 billion.

Dogecoin (why don't they pronounce it "doggiecoin" or "dog-ecoin" Huh) claims 100,000 users yet the mcap is only $43 million. Apparently it is the copper-zinc penny coin (feel good marketing, donations, cute dogs) and Litecoin is the current silver to Bitcoin's gold.

Dogecoin did well because socialism is peaking, so "share the altruism" is a widespread value (goes hand-in-hand with the "open source", "save the whales and penguins and polar bears", etc) and it got more money into more spenders hands, thus increasing the velocity of money which thus increases the value of the coin (see V in the Quantity Theory of Money). Dogecoin fatal mistake was apparently the radically fast mining reward halving schedule.

Some where I wrote a post about Beanie Babies and Doggiecoin. Fads fade quickly. Currency should not.



just read this article: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/salaries-paid-in-bitcoin-a-growing-trend-in-canada-1.2752441

then switched over to the comments, let me summarize em here.

The_Voice:
"The solution is simple: Just don't work for any company that wants to use "bitcoin" to escape its financial obligations to pay an employee in real dollars."

Noharass
"When Bitcoin goes bust, I hope the Canadian government does not bail these people out of their financial mess."

Jordan
"I wouldn;t do anything more than virtual work for such virtual money..."

nexxtep54
"Any savvy techie with the proper software and code can make his own coin and steal yours. No thanks."

Abdul Rahman Hussein
"why take bitcoin? bitcoins are shit, in my opinion.
It is based on the what people believe on it value and it is electronic.
which means that when blackout or hacker can wipe your wallet clean. The chance of that happen is more likely, than hyperinflation or economic collapse. Also Canadian dollar are backed up by gold reserve and protect by the government as a legal tender. Bitcoin has none.Also , big bank spend huge loads on internet security and bitcoin has none."


norain
"Dont go boo hooing to the goverment when you wake up with a empty screen one day. You have to be crazy to accept this rubbish. Like any ponzi scam it will come down. You wait some hacker is working on this as we speak. Your going to be sorry for messing with this junk and thats what you own is junk. what a waste of hard work. It really should be named bite coin because thats what its going to do bite you !"

sachmo
"Bitcoin started by an unknown in 2009 and people are buying into it. I think there is going to be a lot people either very broke or very disappointed in the end. Someone is making money here and it probably isn't the average Joe."

.... sums up how 'Average Joe' thinks... and why Bitcoin (and even worse Altcoins) never truly went to mainstream acceptance within 5 years and most likely never ever will

~CfA~


Yup. And the bolded one is spot on. Any one designing a crypto-currency better understand who the target market is.
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1129
September 02, 2014, 09:36:00 AM
One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

I suspect the reason my CoolPage reached 300,000 to a million users in the first 3 years (multiply by 10 in today's internet), was because people visiting the websites created with it, saw the little sky blue background with golden font advertising button that was on every page that used the free version. At the time (1998 to 2001), possessing a custom designed webpage on Yahoo Geocities was a status symbol of being really cool and hip with the new technologies. And we offered them "drag + drop creation and one click publishing". Later 100s of editors followed suit but we were (ahem "I" the one-man company was) one of the first to offer that in 1998 in an ad-button supported freeware download. And I put a lot of effort into making the GUI really user friendly and even added point-and-click DHTML programming GUI. Technically CoolPage sucked. I was so embarrassed I stopped developing it.



The filipino artist modeled the Cool Page surfer dude on me, lol. But I designed the blue button and the custom font for CoolPage.


Edit: I wrote upthread that anonymity could be unwound for ring signatures if authorities can require you to reveal your private keys (a.k.a. passwords), i.e. allow you to have privacy to the public but not to the government. Astute readers surely smugly ignored me thinking that if the authorities already know your identity in order to require your passwords, then you don't have anonymity. Well this unstated rebuttal falls apart on several levels. One as I said, you revealing your password lowers the anonymity set for those who didn't reveal. Secondly, you may wish to report for tax purposes some funds you bring from the non-reported anonymous world back into the mainstream fiat world, so then the authorities may require you reveal your passwords so they can verify the tax basis you claim for your capital gains. As you know the rulings for example in the USA is that mining is income and the tax basis for capital gains starts at the time of the coinbase transaction.

I was too late. Our HTML editor few years later was not successful.

As you remember there are view keys designed to reveal transactions when needed. So the problem of alleged requirements to reveal private keys can be exaggerated.

Degree of anonymity is subjective. Very few people want full secrecy (ie off-grid), because to have a functioning society, there has to be government (read: civil protection) at some level. It can be Federal, State, County, Parish or Local, but human society is made of connected individuals.

All those levels of govt. are interested (and not interested) in various degrees according to their remits.
legendary
Activity: 2254
Merit: 1278
September 02, 2014, 09:04:34 AM
Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

I find it quite distressing to see people flailing around wildly like this. You offer far too vague a problem statement to take seriously at face value, any significant effort to respond would be futile because its substance would simply disappear into the definitional chasms running through your sketchy landscape.

Progress in this area is most unlikely to happen without a lot more informed effort being devoted to characterising the users. The most generous phrase I can find to describe the current effort is "hopelessly amateur". It's generous because the ineptitude is an obvious consequence of the influence of a technical community that openly prides itself on its ignorance of psychology, sociology, semiotics, marketing and other disciplines of the “soft sciences”. If you really can't articulate the details of the key factors underlying Dogecoin's undeniable appeal to users then you shouldn't aspire to hold an opinion on the subject.

If you think that's a bit brutal, I can offer this adapted quote: “You really have no business creating your own cryptocurrency if you don't understand marketing well enough to figure out how to achieve large-scale adoption without somebody else's help.”

A moment's reflection should inform you that each of the cited examples (celeb endorsement, corporate adoption or government takeover) is merely a proxy for “just about anyone with a well-resourced and effective marketing function” (which, you may be astounded to learn, does not equate to “advertising”).

Cheers

Graham
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
September 02, 2014, 07:31:59 AM
what's happening with the Bitcoin price Guyz ?

: |

And, especially, how is it related to the topic of the thread?  Angry
member
Activity: 94
Merit: 10
September 02, 2014, 06:08:48 AM
One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

I suspect the reason my CoolPage reached 300,000 to a million users in the first 3 years (multiply by 10 in today's internet), was because people visiting the websites created with it, saw the little sky blue background with golden font advertising button that was on every page that used the free version. At the time (1998 to 2001), possessing a custom designed webpage on Yahoo Geocities was a status symbol of being really cool and hip with the new technologies. And we offered them "drag + drop creation and one click publishing". Later 100s of editors followed suit but we were (ahem "I" the one-man company was) one of the first to offer that in 1998 in an ad-button supported freeware download. And I put a lot of effort into making the GUI really user friendly and even added point-and-click DHTML programming GUI. Technically CoolPage sucked. I was so embarrassed I stopped developing it.



The filipino artist modeled the Cool Page surfer dude on me, lol. But I designed the blue button and the custom font for CoolPage.


Edit: I wrote upthread that anonymity could be unwound for ring signatures if authorities can require you to reveal your private keys (a.k.a. passwords), i.e. allow you to have privacy to the public but not to the government. Astute readers surely smugly ignored me thinking that if the authorities already know your identity in order to require your passwords, then you don't have anonymity. Well this unstated rebuttal falls apart on several levels. One as I said, you revealing your password lowers the anonymity set for those who didn't reveal. Secondly, you may wish to report for tax purposes some funds you bring from the non-reported anonymous world back into the mainstream fiat world, so then the authorities may require you reveal your passwords so they can verify the tax basis you claim for your capital gains. As you know the rulings for example in the USA is that mining is income and the tax basis for capital gains starts at the time of the coinbase transaction.

I was too late. Our HTML editor few years later was not successful.

As you remember there are view keys designed to reveal transactions when needed. So the problem of alleged requirements to reveal private keys can be exaggerated.
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
September 02, 2014, 05:26:40 AM
One way to make something popular is to offer something that people ogle and get jealous if others have it and they don't.

Humans hate to miss the party. Humans are social. This is the game of life.

I suspect the reason my CoolPage reached 300,000 to a million users in the first 3 years (multiply by 10 in today's internet), was because people visiting the websites created with it, saw the little sky blue background with golden font advertising button that was on every page that used the free version. At the time (1998 to 2001), possessing a custom designed webpage on Yahoo Geocities was a status symbol of being really cool and hip with the new technologies. And we offered them "drag + drop creation and one click publishing". Later 100s of editors followed suit but we were (ahem "I" the one-man company was) one of the first to offer that in 1998 in an ad-button supported freeware download. And I put a lot of effort into making the GUI really user friendly and even added point-and-click DHTML programming GUI. Technically CoolPage sucked. I was so embarrassed I stopped developing it. I made a lot of mistakes as I was younger and still gaining experience.



The filipino artist modeled the Cool Page surfer dude on me, lol. But I designed the blue button and the custom font for CoolPage.


Edit: I wrote upthread that anonymity could be unwound for ring signatures if authorities can require you to reveal your private keys (a.k.a. passwords), i.e. allow you to have privacy to the public but not to the government. Astute readers surely smugly ignored me thinking that if the authorities already know your identity in order to require your passwords, then you don't have anonymity. Well this unstated rebuttal falls apart on several levels. One as I said, you revealing your password lowers the anonymity set for those who didn't reveal. Secondly, you may wish to report for tax purposes some funds you bring from the non-reported anonymous world back into the mainstream fiat world, so then the authorities may require you reveal your passwords so they can verify the tax basis you claim for your capital gains. As you know the rulings for example in the USA is that mining is income and the tax basis for capital gains starts at the time of the coinbase transaction.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Who cares?
September 02, 2014, 02:34:01 AM
Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).



Have it stamped official by a government.

Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.

Ease of purchase online and in the real world.  No waiting 4 days for approval or whatever, no finger print scanning, dna verification, rectal examinations or selling souls to malevolent entities. 
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
September 02, 2014, 02:29:24 AM
Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).



Have it stamped official by a government.

That might work, depending on the government. Official approval by Tuvalu might not do much (though it arguably could).

Quote
Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.

These all come down to advertising really, unless the celebrity happened to take a personal interest and made it into a hit for whatever black swan sort of reason. But celebrities are so managed and used as promotional tools these days that almost everything they do seems to be some sort of product placement deal.

legendary
Activity: 1232
Merit: 1001
mining is so 2012-2013
September 02, 2014, 02:25:07 AM
Any other ideas of how to scale a crypto-currency to beyond 10 million users within 3 years or less from launch?

Build it into a game that becomes a massive hit. Unfortunately I don't know any way to engineer a game that is a massive hit. They all seem to be black swans. Most often designers of very successful games who try to repeat their success fail and end up being one hit wonders. Maybe that is not universal though, I'm not sure.

Installments of an already-successful franchise can get wide distribution but you will need to pay for that, so it comes back to advertising (a form of product placement in this case).



Have it stamped official by a government.

Have it backed by a major corporation. Like for instance any major fast food or coffee retailer.  Possibly an industry as a whole.

Get a celebrity or team of celebrities to not only endorse but actively promote.

In all of these options killer one click apps for phones and computers are a must.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
September 02, 2014, 02:15:01 AM
Mea culpa on using the word "joke". My idealism is driving me too hard. Also I feel competitive when rpietila writes smugly that he thinks he found the perfect solutions already which was the catalyst for this recent set of posts from me after a hiatus.

Bitcon, Monero, and Cryptonite don't need to be perfect, they only need to offer a comparative advantage over fiat and the other altcoins; Gresham will do the rest.  I'm no utilitarian, but marginalism is an undeniably useful tool.

Let RP be smug, the guy is Lord of Monero Manor.  Being a Debbie Downer when he preens is unflattering, and makes you look like a player hater.

I don't get any such haughty vibes from his posts at all, but that's probably because I'd be a trillion times more insufferable given thousands of BTC and a castle.  Especially when holding court in the wine cellar's dining room/library...   Tongue
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Who cares?
September 02, 2014, 02:02:56 AM
XMR ... 10 million users in 3 years...

But doesn't Bitcoin only have around 1million users atm after 5 years?

I think a rolling window of active users is a better reference on this.  XMR is growing much faster than BTC.  I expect it to overtake BTC in 3 years.


 Being this high...

Still hope you're right though!  Grin
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
September 02, 2014, 02:00:24 AM
I like "some" of AM's posts too.  That's why *I am* being nice to him.  My friendly banter provided a platform to discuss himself, a favorite activity, with relish.

aminorex was being mean, so I diffused the conflict with some humor.   Grin Grin

I ignored your first post, because it is embarrassing if personalizing the meritorious discussion.

Mea culpa on using the word "joke". My idealism is driving me too hard. Also I feel competitive when rpietila writes smugly that he thinks he found the perfect solutions already which was the catalyst for this recent set of posts from me after a hiatus.

Bitcoin is mature in age six but hasn't even reached the scale friendster attained in its first year or two.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
September 02, 2014, 01:50:21 AM
Damn, they are forbidding me from posting again. Bye.
I take some comfort in knowing that your loved ones are looking out for you.

Heh, the Martyr Complex is quite strong in this one. 

I think the reasoning goes something like this:

Prophets are always persecuted, genius is always misunderstood.  AM is a genius and a prophet, so he is both persecuted and misunderstood.

Oh, poor little him!  How the cryptosphere weeps!  Even Master Satoshi, ascendent in exulted Bit-Valhalla, sheds a tear...   Cry

Anonymint is definitely a strange bird but be nice to him!  I enjoy reading his posts, some are very educational.

I like "some" of AM's posts too.  That's why *I am* being nice to him.  My friendly banter provided a platform to discuss himself, a favorite activity, with relish.

aminorex was being mean, so I diffused the conflict with some humor.   Grin Grin
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