Topic: rpietila Calling the Bottom - page 23. (Read 45362 times)

I'm starting to be pessimistic about it all, and I even think we may not witness next Bitcoin bubble in near future... Here's why:

• All the geeks and early adopters are in. Who is still left-out is ignorant mass which can't comprehend Bitcoin incentives over Paypal, nor they can see it actually heals the worldwide economy. Yes, we're waiting for a big investors too, but I doubt they will enter such unregulated market which is public enemy nr. 1 of states and banking system. Finally, billionares are billionares just because of the corrupted fiat money system, and actually they kind of chopping off the branch they're sitting on.
• Price of Bitcoin: new Bitcoins are released every day and we need about 1.5mil$/day just to keep the price stagnant. It's really not the same like Bitcoin was 100$ before the previous bubble. Much more fiat is needed to fuel the rise. You can see it as 5x more people is needed to be aware of it all. I doubt there is 5x more people in cryptos now than there were in October 2013.
• Remember, previous Bitcoin bubble was fuelled mostly by Mt.Gox failure (someone artificially made USD credit on their site and was constantly buying) + "China is coming" effect. Those were 2 big (positive) circumstances, and it was pure luck for Bitcoin's price, so it wasn't too much about the real demand, it was about stealing and speculator's game.
• Too many altcoin parasites which are dispersing energy (and money). Actually I realised maybe even it would be better for worldwide economy that Bitcoin stayed closed source, forged in honest very small community of most advanced developers.
• Big holders may decide that they exit the game and effectively kill the price to the ground. Specially, I am affraid of 1 mil BTC owned by Satoshi. Would be good for Bitcoin if he is not among us anymore so the private keys are lost

Sadly, I realize Bitcoin is "liberalist wet dream", but can easiliy failed one. Combination of ignorant mass which is easily manipulated + interests of elite that is state and banksters, and I see it may really stay on the margin of worldwide economy, say it takes only about 10-20% of electronic payments and money transfers worldwide. That's not a win, that is huge fail compared to what we were thinking it may become.

So I played the Devil's advocate this time, and ask me what do I think about alts? Right now, they're fuckin' dead, including "silver to bitcoin's gold". Only chance for them is to rise along with Bitcoin. Astronomic rise of Darkcoin was not the healthy demand by the masses for spending it, it was speculator's game. After the initial boom and crash, we will see a slow decline, every fairly successful altcoin has the same history and future: One bubble and then the second one purely dependent on Bitcoin.

That was just my analysis and discussion is welcome. I just don't wanna hear I'm trolling or fudding, believe me I'm the one who was tirelessly promoting the whole story from the early days of 2012, and I made quite bucks out from it, but I'm starting to think the "golden age" of cryptos is over.

Community is not focused and I doubt we can heal the economy and win the war this way.

to the confused posters (eg, above,, and oka.krell)

the argument is that the bottom was on Apr 11,2014...

if that was not the bottom, then the price will have to go below the price on Apr 11, 2014.

This has to be the most illogical post I've ever read. It says nothing about deriving a bottom through technical analysis -- supposedly this guy's thing. Additionally, a further drop occurred in China below 2900 after he wrote it. Finally, there was some nonsense about "Bitcoin pregnancies"

I am going to go out on a limb and say that this isn't the bottom (unless people just seeing the title give it more credence then it deserves based on the utter lack of analysis).

There is some interesting fundamental data going on recently with the blockchain.info chart of Number of transactions excluding popular:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false×pan=2year&show_header=true&daysAverageString=7&scale=0&address=

Getting real close to taking out the March high. So it would seem usage/adoption is now solidly in a new upswing phase. Possibly due to Circle (WHEN am I getting my invite !?), and of course there are many other things springing up lately from ATMs, much new merchant adoption, etc.

Well so anyway, if this continues then price is going up.

Definately isnt sinking.

rpietila still making stupid calls I see. And still, stuck on $10k+ (perhaps you've let your dream of $100k back in 2013 go?)

You're a delusional troll, and I'm not quite sure how people still give credence to your statements. You got lucky as an early adopter. Don't confuse that with thinking you actually know what the hell you're talking about.

I agree with the OP, but unfortunatly for me, I first heard of bitcoin in late 2012 and I didn't look up for more information or anything.
I remeber when the price was 300 BRL(+-150USD) and then I thought with myself, "oh, this is too expensive, and I need to deposit my money in the exchange? Too much work for this..."

Yeah, that's too bad ahahaha

I recover my concernment about bitcoin when the price exploded in november 2013, and then I started to read everything about it, but just started to invest in june.

I'm calling triplets at least...

I don't trust bold dudes with pink rolls...

Because it's not a "very valid" theory.

why do you ignore the very valid theory that the willybot manipulation was the main cause of most of the explosive growth up to $1200? And everything since then has been from people HODLing... it's very possible that the true price of BTC without manipulation should be still much lower than it currently is... I wouldn't bet the farm on it either way, I'm just saying...

(Preliminary remark: I usually avoid posting in self-moderated topics, but I'll make an exception this time. Let's see how this turns out.)

Not going to argue with the body of your post. Several valid points, though I continue to believe that predicting future price levels by simple extrapolation from the all-time price regression is extremely optimistic, and in all likelihood: too optimistic. Which doesn't change the main point you seem to make, similar to Devin Chow's point in his thread yesterday - that if you believed in the long-term potential of Bitcoin a week ago at $590, there's no need to panic sell now at $490.

That said, your title bears no causal (or even just argumentative) relation to the body of the post. And, non-surprisingly, it is proven wrong already, less than 24 hours later. Sometimes, technical causes take over in a market, and the fundamentals are on the backburner for a while. Now seems to be such a time, and it is perhaps best to prepare yourself for the (likely) effects of that.

From when my husband told me about Bitcoin to when we invested was about a year.  Granted there was some crazy things going on in 2012 when we first heard about it and we really did not know how legal it was.  I initially thought it would be a good idea just to throw a few hundred in for "fun." But the greatest fear was not just throwing a little cash in, it was being associated with something that could cause us some legal harm.  Once we heard that there was going to be money laundering laws put into place we purchased then.  Of course we had more time to think about it and see the value in it by then.  It was still a risk buying in 2013 though.  The exchanges were not terribly secure and seemed rather "shady" in some ways.  

All that said, Risto is most likely right that this is the "bottom."  He is generally right.  Glad to hear that this is the bottom for now.  I just hope that we do not have to wait too long for the next run up in price.  There are several things that hubby and I have delayed a little waiting for this next rally and I have a mission trip scheduled in a few months that I will need to spend some coins on.  But pulling any funds out of BTC seems a foolish thing to do knowing we are on the brink of another rally.  Oh well, I guess that is just the way it goes sometimes.  

I agree. Once we know these algorithms/tactics exist there is nothing stopping us from profiting. "Wall Street" needs to watch its back--there are no regulations in place to protect them this time and the big whales who have been in this market for years and hold a large percentage of coin are certainly not dumb and won't give it up easily.

That said everyone in this game has a vested interest in seeing bitcoin succeed, so I don't think they'll knock down the price enough to garner negative media attention.

A day too early with the thread it seems 

it took me ~2-3 weeks as well, is this typical? probably not,

most poeple will first be aware of it but not put much thought into it, one day they will hear about it again, do some recreash, think about buying in, forget about it, repeat, actually start saving money to buy, watch market for weeks or months ( everyone thinks they can buy the low if they only sit there long enough ) and then finally buy when its clear that "its going UP!", these poeple comes in waves and they all buy at pretty much the same time, they can't help it, its in there nature, sheeple.

honestly i think this manipulation should be allowed. theres nothing stopping anyone from trading against them...

as long as there is no nake shorts, i'm ok with it really, i don't like it, but i see no good reason to put rules where none are needed. the market will take care of this itself.

Yeah, 2 months is about average to thoroughly research Bitcoin. In fact, I'm still learning tidbits here and there.

I remember calling Gavin and theymos at least a couple of times to ask questions. Then wasting another month throwing out low ball bids on OTC that were laughable (embarrassingly low). Finally I said fuck it and plowed into mtgox.

It's a new land, like the Wild West. There are unwritten rules that yet need to be written.

+1

The logic is sound, the facts seem to fit, and I agree.

so why is price not performing as it should be?


yes, that seems to be the case, I would go one step further and add that the deep-pocket investors are playing with the market, dropping price, leverage hunting, down playing their willingness to buy, all in the hope of adding to that anxiety resulting more bitcoin available on the market for them.

no one drops large sums of bitcoin when news is gr8, unless they want to manipulate, and we saw just how effective a well placed large market sell can be, with last nights long squeeze.

do you believe there is some manipulation is taking place? how long can they keep this up?  how low will they make us go? are their tricks working for you, are you scared, are you selling!?