Topic: Russia and others, move to use Yuan instead of dollar. - page 3. (Read 1638 times)

I know this data, I expected to see it, and I confirm - it is true
As is the truth that "China CLOSED all of its data on foreign exchange reserves. The data released to the public is sometimes very vague and cannot be used to get the full picture." You won't show data on China's foreign exchange reserves other than analysts' assumptions.

Regarding the information you cite: Yes, in 12 months, China has reduced (according to official U.S. data) about 16% of its investments in U.S. government bonds. If you do a simple operation, and compare with other countries, China is by no means the leader in terms of government bond dumping. That said, you can see that the countries are about 50/50 split between those who have reduced their holdings a bit and those who have increased them a bit.
I understand if China left 50% for the year. And so - yes there is a slight change, but it can't be called "China has abandoned U.S. government obligations and withdrawn all funds from them.

Oh, and most importantly You somehow selectively took the period, forgetting about the current date ? Coincidence?

And here is the full spreadsheet with ALL the information on the current date

https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html

Tell me - what is the increase from 849.0 on 2023-02 to 868.9 on 2023-04 ? In 2 months - a 10% increase in investment ...Or is that not it, it's about another ?!

That's some interesting data, thanks for the link.
I ran some analysis on it and it shows what we've been saying over the past year. A lot of countries have been abandoning US slowly but surely, some of which are in the Eastern bloc.

Amount-wise we have a total of $253 billion dollar dumped over the specified year (Jan 2022 to Jan 2023) with Japan ($195.5 billion) and China ($174.4 billion) on top as the "biggest dumpers".

Percentage-wise we have Sweden on top with 28% dump which is $15 billion. The more interesting one is the terrorist organization known as Israel that has dumped 28% of its securities and bonds worth $17.7 billion.
After that we have France (21%-$49 billion), Ireland (18%-$55.2 billion), China (17%-$174.4 billion), Thailand (15%-$9.3 billion), Korea (15%-$18 billion), Japan (15%-$195.5 billion), Vietnam (14%-$6 billion), Kuwait (14%-$7.3 billion) as the "top dumpers".

There are of course some interesting names in the list that have been trying to "pump" money into the failing US economy and some of them are the  usual suspects such as UAE that has increased its holdings by $20 billion (45%). Interestingly enough Saudi Arabia (the 51st state) that has actually dumped 7% of its holdings equal to $8.4 billion.
The biggest "pumper" position goes to Belgium with $88.1 billion bought securities and bonds (36% increase). I have to dig deeper for more reliable information but with some quick search Belgium as one of the handful of European countries with LNG terminals have increased its Russian LNG imports by a lot (nearly double). It looks like they were "taxed" by US for the increased income #cashcow

Fortunately, you can see the dynamics of China's investment in US Treasury bonds on the US Treasury website.

Here everything is very simple.
1. You can neither prove nor deny any information about China's foreign exchange reserves, including the amount of treasury bills. China has CLOSED and CLOSED this data. The data released to the public is sometimes very vague and cannot be used to get a complete picture.
2. China sells most of its most demanded goods - ONLY FOR THE DOLLAR !
3. China's economy, as much as you don't like it, is totally dependent on Western technology. No - China can produce its own consumer goods. But competitive goods with high added value. china cannot produce without western technology ! That's why, after the migration of Western technology from China has begun, China is hysterically looking for a way out, including through "pressure and agreement. This is what I mean: From August 1, 2023, gallium and germanium, as well as their chemical compounds, will be subject to export controls. According to the Chinese side, the measure is aimed at protecting national security. But at the same time China says - if you don't take technology out of China - we will lift these restrictions ! By the way China sells gallium and germanium ONLY for dollars
4. Regarding the fantasy about "NY/RUR values are first calculated in US dollars and then converted to another currency". On the one hand it seems to be true. But the nuances, which you always forget about for some reason
On the example of oil bought by India for rupees. Urals, on the market for $50+. India gets a huge discount. The total dollar value of a barrel is approximately $35. Everything seems to be fine. But this is not how calculations are made
Firstly, for inter-state settlements India uses a very specific cross-rate, which is calculated through the chain rupee-dollar-ruble, taking into account the risks of the ruble; as a result Russia loses another 3-5%.
H u i fnal - part of the money is blocked in accounts in Indian banks, and the part that actually ends up in Russia - you can only buy "bananas" conditionally with them, and the question of exchanging rupees for dollars is not even considered. Do you think that China is stupider than India in "undressing" Russia?  It's exactly the same picture there....

It is almost impossible to destroy the dominance of the ABD Dollar. Russia and China which are opposite the NATO Bloc, can make an agreement between them and trade in Yuan and they have already implemented this. It is also quite impossible for Russia to sell energy, which is one of the biggest sources of income in exchange for Yuan. There is no dominance of national currencies in world trade. Because countries are not self-sufficient as before and they need US Dollars for foreign trade. If Russia makes its energy exports by buying Yuan, it may enter into a payments crisis. This is because most of their income will be in Yuan and their payments will be in US Dollars. First of all, it is necessary to reduce the dependence on the US Dollar over time in order to end this order and this is a process that will take many years.

^^^ You assume that China has a deep love affair with US Dollar. Then why they are offloading a part of their reserves in US treasury bonds? Why they have given their approval for the common BRICS currency, which as CNY having the highest weightage? China is trying to move away from USD and there is no confusion related to this. But they are intelligent enough to understand that doing so takes a lot of time and it can't be done in a fortnight. And also, even for trade using CNY/RUR, values are first calculated in USD and then converted to the other currency.

Here I support you, assess you as very smart, and then you are such a bah, and with all my might prove that you are not!

Well, let's take the long way. A simple question - you ask yourself - what does China sell for Yuan to Russia? And try to answer it yourself by researching the subject area?

What you have listed - thank you for your work, everything is correct. But with a little clarification, which for some reason you "chronically dislike"

I will return for a second to my post, which you did not deny, and you silently accepted it, because you understand that it is true, and easily provable.

The post was about a terrorist country having a problem in trade relations with India. And the problem is that Russia, selling oil to India at a bargain price, not only doesn't get any of the money in supplies, but it can't use the money it gets as it wants. Let me make it clear again - India has banned the sale of many critically important and competitive goods to Russia for RUPIs. But it has allowed it to sell from... FOR DOLLARS

Do you think China is stupider than India? Shall I tell you what products from china come to russia in exchange for yuan ? Which Chinese products are sold to Russia only FOR DOLLARS? 
Or you'll pretend you don't know what I mean?

The sanctions and embargoes can yield targeted outcomes in the short term, however their extensive use compels the affected entities to find alternatives and become more reliant on their local resources.
It is also important to note that characterizing wars as conflicts fought over economy is over simplification. While economic factors can play significant role in geopolitical conflicts, wars often involve complex dynamics, that includes political, ideological, territorial and historical factors. Economic factors alone don't fully capture the complexities of wars.

When a country is embargoed, it suffers economically. Since Russia is at war and embargoed, it has to protect its economy. There are various ways to do this. It is trying to take certain steps to reduce the influence of the dollar. Russia is trying to get closer to China to disable the US financial system. It's a logical move for Russia. At the same time, it is necessary to prevent the negative effects of dollar fluctuations in many countries. Wars are now fought over the economy.

I don't think that the Russians are facing any issue in using Chinese Yuan, because CNY is easily convertible with other currencies and also China is the no.1 trade partner of Russia. And more importantly, unlike the case with Russia-India trade, the trade relation between Russia and China is more asymmetric with trade balance being almost equal. Russia imports a lot of stuff from China, including electronics, automobiles, textiles, medicines, chemicals, fruits and vegetables. And most of this trade has shifted to CNY.

Sithara007 you are a smart man, it is pleasant to communicate with you! That's right - local currencies for international settlements turn out to be inconvenient and limited in application. And that is why the world uses the convenient U.S. DOLLAR. Not the rupee, not the yuan, but the DOLLAR ! Because it is the only currency with which it is EASY to buy everything the world economy produces. That's why trying to create the appearance of "dedolarization" is the way into this kind of inconvenience ! And you will soon realize that the yuanization of your "foolish" neighbors is not synonymous with dedolarization ! China is not abandoning the dollar, just like the terrorist country russia, they are critically dependent on international currency revenues, because they depend on the world market, not the other way around !

Well.. it is unfortunate that the Indian government hasn't made the INR fully convertible. As a result, the Russians don't want to trade using this currency. It benefits no one, as the traders are being forced to use currencies such as Chinese Yuan, United Arab Emirates Dirham and Swiss Franc along with the US Dollar. The fact that the Russian traders prefer CNY (despite strong resistance by Indians) prove that they don't have any issues in accepting this currency. And from what I have heard, they are preferring CNY instead of US Dollar.

I think the primary reason for Russia to consider accepting Chinese currency Yuan for international transactions of its oil sales, is to bypass US financial system and reduce its vulnerability to Economic sanction imposed following the Ukraine war. It can provide an alternative avenue for conducting business and lessen the impact of sanctions. Secondly, it can help Russia to diversify its foreign exchange reserves which are currently heavily weighted towards US dollar and Euro. By doing so Russia can mitigate the impact of fluctuations of these currencies on its economy.

The process of dedollarization does require a long process. and I also agree that it's not going to happen anytime soon. Because the dominance of the dollar has been very strongly attached to the global economic order and in current global transactions. In fact, several countries also use the US Dollar as currency because they no longer have their own country's currency due to extreme inflation in the past. but in the future I think de-dollarization will really materialize if the US is negligent and does not strengthen its position in the eyes of the world.

Oh dear Sithara007 , what went wrong?! ))
After all, everything was so good, without the dollar, very profitable, in "strong and secure rubles, yuan and rupees" ! What "broke"?
 And as always, why are you silent about the real picture ? About the blocking of Russian funds by India, about the ban on the exchange of rupees for dollars, which Russia was asking for so much!  About the restrictive measures to sell many groups of goods for rupees in russia ? Why are you silent about these "little nuances"? The fact that India bought oil from russia for yuan speaks of many negative factors for both India and russia ! By the way - can you tell me what for yuan russia can buy in china ? Maybe servers ? Or equipment for 5G networks , or maybe industrial equipment ? Most likely... nails and cheap cell phones Because for the rest China demands... DOLLARS ! Surprising, right ?!

This year there has been a situation of tension with the US dollar, the debt controversy that it faces together with events such as the bankruptcy of recognized banking centers, has called into question whether even the currency of this country is solid enough to to continue using it as a global investment, it is due to these events that a controversy began to seek other fiat currency alternatives that can step on the heels of the dollar and be just as effective in terms of stability against inflation, the result of this was directed towards China's yuan as a possible replacement, and seeing the union of certain countries to make payment in this asset instead of using the one that for many years has led the market, causes tension and instability between nations…. Because let's be clear, what happens to the dollar affects all those regions that still use it, generating a chain of instability in a general way.

These three world powers, China, Russia and the United States, have always competed to keep the throne and be the most powerful in all senses...... the union of two great pillars can defeat and underestimate the power that their rival has had for so long common…..that is why I consider that this action between russia and china is a possible strategy to destabilize the united states and to athose who support this country.

I still feel like people are exaggerating dedollarisation process. Well yeah people are using dollar like %5-10 less but what do they use instead? Euros. Pounds. etc. Yuan can't be competitive against Dollar in near future period. United States is still owning financial markets literally. It can create nearly unlimited debt. People care about currencies that will not constantly experience devaluations, USD is still the best one along with Swiss Franc in that topic in my opinion. Ask Russians if they prefer ruble to usd honestly. Most will not.

If bloomberg is to be believed, that still doesn't change anything about the main subject here which is "dedollarisation". There may be some conflicts of interests between countries about what currency to use but they still are not going back to dollar. As the article also claims that the Indian refineries are using Yuan and Derham (not dollar) to purchase Russian oil.

The usage of Rupee in international trade between India and Russia was discontinued sometime back. Now the majority of the trade is being conducted using the US Dollar, and a part of the trade is being done using the AED (United Arab Emirates Dirham). And this month, some of the Indian refineries have purchased a few Russian crude oil cargoes using CNY (Chinese Yuan). Details can be found here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-03/india-state-refiners-consider-paying-in-yuan-for-russian-crude

BPCL and HPCL want to continue with their payments in USD/AED, but the emergence of new sanctions have made this much harder now. Obviously CNY is an attractive option, but the government is not that excited.

Yes, it is convenient to buy Chinese goods from China, saving only the Chinese economy... I.e. we get - what they are trying to accuse the U.S. - allegedly the dominance of the dollar and the work of the dollar only on the U.S. economy
True, the U.S. dollar allows you to buy ANY goods, any country, anywhere you choose. And that's a huge difference. By the way, that's exactly what China is aiming for - the yuanization of its partners, who are not the smartest. India has also succeeded in this business, and is also playing a fun game with Russia Now when Russia sells oil for rupees it does not understand where a significant portion of funds went, why there is a catastrophic shortage of dollars, and what to do with the rupees it has!   As it turned out - India does not sell all of its goods to Russia for its rupees! What a beauty, right? The most demanded and competitive ones are welcome ... for dollars or euros