Russia suspends gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay in rouble - page 3.

Haunebu

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Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

Agreed. Russia continue to screw their reputation by acting like gangsters in this manner which won't do them any good in the long-term as more and more countries continue forming negative opinions about them for various reasons.

Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

I disagree. There are several alternatives out there like LNG, Coal and Renewable energy which is why it's possible to stop depending on Russia for gas.

It won't be easy as you mentioned, but it's possible and this change will also help nature(Climate Change) in the long-term.

mindrust

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Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

adaseb

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Yes it looks like many countries are starting to purchase Rubles because their currency pair is gaining a lot of traction. Wondering what Poland will do in the winter. I am assuming they are hoping this war is over by then and things will go back to normal.

However if it’s not over they will have no choice but to pay in Rubles. What other choice do they have. They got a reserve but it won’t last a long time. And in the cold winter they will have to comply to Russia’s demands because they don’t want their citizens to freeze.

Darker45

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Quote from: ivankoh on April 28, 2022, 10:15:14 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on April 27, 2022, 09:55:27 PM

This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

I think, that seems like a double-edged sword if they are determined to push the risk higher. That seems to be the engine behind the 24% increase in European gas prices following the news that Russia closed gas valves to Poland and Bulgaria. Also, it looks like Finland refuses to pay gas prices in rubles but I think in the long run they don't really seem ready to be so assertive if they don't have ample gas reserves. Assuming Putin decides to prolong this scenario, The direct damage is huge if they don't have much incentive for the gas supply to support, the risk of massive inflation continues to cripple the global economy.

Yes, and although the conflict is basically happening in a single country, the ripple effect in this age of globalization is far-reaching. As a matter of fact, even before the issue of suspending gas supplies to some neighboring European countries, the price of gas products in a small nation far away in South East Asia has already increased. The last time I bought a 250-gram butane canister, the price was already $2. That's an increase of around 25%. That's not even a direct effect of this conflict.

777Jolami

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Russia will stop supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria for not paying in rubles, seen as Russia's toughest response to sanctions imposed by the West over the conflict in Ukraine. However, if the situation between Russia and the EU continues like this, it will greatly affect the global economy.

The Sceptical Chymist

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 27, 2022, 08:05:08 AM

It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.

It's already interesting, but I'm afraid that this situation will turn from "interesting" to horrifying if it turns into WWIII when the West gets involved with their own military forces--and I'm talking potential nuclear conflict. As someone who lives in North America, the Russia/Ukraine conflict seems very distant, but I'm sure that's the way it felt here when Germany was trying to take over Europe in the 1930s. There comes a point where the western powers won't sit on the sidelines anymore and watch a dictator expand his empire through force. Granted, it took Pearl Harbor before the US entered WWII, but this is a different time and the US has a different president, so who knows.

I have yet to see Putin making any statements. Is that because he's being silent on the media or is it just that everything he says is being censored in the West? I'd like to hear what he has to say, and not filtered through someone else's mouth.

KennyR

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Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

.... The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail

This coming from the people that keeps hitting Russia with sanctions hehe.

Countries United together on sanctions, and now every country wants oil. Russia is playing the lead role to keep everything within control. More plans of renewable energy production and requests for oil supply from East Asian countries failed. This is where EU mentioned it as gas blackmail... Hahaha Cheesy

Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

Something has to be mutually addressed to end the war. If this keeps going on, both the country people gets affected alot. Already two months past and the war still continues. At some point it looks like European Union is playing an one sided role.

Yogee

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Do you have a complete map of the gas pipelines from Russia to the rest of European countries? I'm also curious about the potential impact of this to the political landscape in the region.

Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

.... The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail

This coming from the people that keeps hitting Russia with sanctions hehe.

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

DrBeer

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Quote from: Pomogator on April 27, 2022, 10:46:23 PM

Yes, they did turn it off. After this news, many countries began to open special ruble accounts to pay for gas. Most small European countries cannot survive without Russian gas. I think Poland and Bulgaria will close their gas debts in rubles and will again receive gas. If the rest of the countries will not pay for gas in rubles, then they will also face the same fate.

No one, except for the governments of some countries "lured by the Kremlin" or sitting on the hook of compromising evidence, will pay in some ruble that no one needs. There are signed terms of delivery, there are settlement accounts. And the fact that Russia suddenly wanted to change - may want to, but who is she to set conditions for someone and change the rules of the game?

ivankoh

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Quote from: Darker45 on April 27, 2022, 09:55:27 PM

This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

I think, that seems like a double-edged sword if they are determined to push the risk higher. That seems to be the engine behind the 24% increase in European gas prices following the news that Russia closed gas valves to Poland and Bulgaria. Also, it looks like Finland refuses to pay gas prices in rubles but I think in the long run they don't really seem ready to be so assertive if they don't have ample gas reserves. Assuming Putin decides to prolong this scenario, The direct damage is huge if they don't have much incentive for the gas supply to support, the risk of massive inflation continues to cripple the global economy.

davis196

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Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on April 27, 2022, 12:58:21 PM

Quote from: TheCoinGrabber on April 27, 2022, 11:59:11 AM

Summer can't come soon enough don't it?

According to the government information, we have reserves for 90 days (based on the winte rconsumption rates) so this scenario was expected after the expulsion of a dozen of Russian citizens conspiring against our country and spying for Russia.We were one of the first countries to colse our airspace for Russian airplanes so we were havely criticised for those actions and there were many threads from the Russian side. It was just a matter of time that to happen.

Nope.Bulgaria has natural gas reserves for one month.The alternative gas that is about to come from Greece and Turkey will be way more expensive and there's no guarantee that Greece and Turkey would agree to export gas to Bulgaria.
The whole "pay for our gas with rubles" thing is a big nonsense.The western countries are still paying with euro and dollars to bank accounts in Gasprombank,where the euro and dollars are being converted to rubles.
Basically nothing has changed,but the Russians are breaking the gas delivery contracts for no valid reason(or maybe to show the world that they are strong enough to blackmail EU countries with natural gas).

DrBeer

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Russia and the gas market - this is a training material "What is zutzwang. The best example of how to get to it as quickly as possible"

If a couple of years ago, although Russia was considered strange, it was considered a more or less stable supplier, then over the past half year, Russia has made maximum, and qualitatively, efforts to destroy this opinion! And she recently managed to reach the highest point - now everyone knows that Russia and Gazprom = a couple of complete idiots

Every action of Russia only tightens the knot on Russia's neck! Every action of Russia helps the EU to look for solutions and alternative suppliers!

NeuroticFish

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Quote from: Flexystar on April 27, 2022, 09:44:28 AM

Let’s not forget Putin is going crazy day by day and these things could really go in wrong direction and up to the extent that Putin is sending biohazards through those Gas Pipeline to win the war.

While he indeed went mad, I don't think that your scenario is feasible. You are talking about living creatures there, which will most probably have to survive living without oxygen, possibly high pressures, then going literally through fire, and afterwards still be alive and infecting.
Let's not be overly paranoid...

Quote from: kryptqnick on April 27, 2022, 01:14:35 PM

There are separate contracts for gas transit, I believe, so I don't think it's likely that Bulgaria will stop being a transit country for gas that's moving to other countries. Ukraine, for example, even though being very anti-Russia right now, is, at least as of March 21 (maybe it changed, I couldn't find info on that), is piping Russian gas to Europe to fulfil its contract obligations with the European countries (or so it seems).

Imho it greatly depends whether the transit contract was made with Serbia/Hungary, which I don't think so, or with Russia.
Since Russia has broken its side of one contract with Bulgaria, I don't see why wouldn't Bulgaria break the other contract with Russia as response.

Ukraine is most probably still allowing the transit to not hurt Germany and the other countries, not to favor Russia. On the other hand, the customers affected by Bulgaria closing the pipe would be anyway countries cheering for Putin.

bittraffic

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Quote from: tygeade on April 28, 2022, 02:08:03 AM

Quote from: marine4u on April 27, 2022, 02:28:25 PM

In terms of pure motives, this is completely understandable. No one denied the power they had in oil and gas, they needed to untie the ropes tied to the rocks to minimize the extent of the sinking. They may accept bitcoin as an alternative to the ruble, but it would be better to strengthen their native currency.

I think Putin is still the knifeman in this regard. Winter is coming and the initiative is in their hands. I expect the US and EU response to this scenario and I think the symptoms can last longer and there is no exception in the European countries.

It would be counterintuitive if they start accepting bitcoin. I mean it would help them bypass the sanctions when they want to get money out, which is what people wanted to do, oligarchs mainly, because they had too much money in Russia tied up and they wanted to get it out when they heard about sanctions.

But when they want money in, then they need to accept ruble just so that people would buy ruble and make it gain some value. We should all remember that it started at 70's range per dollar, then went to as high as 130's if I am not wrong and back to where it was, maybe even a little bit better all thanks to the fact that they force everyone to pay with ruble.

They are going to b blocked and BTC will not be cashed out because exchanges are already blocking Russian IP addresses. Their BTC will be flagged. But with Roubles, they can make their economy better.

EU could claim this gas blackmail but it seem necessary for Russia to take such action. It turns out Gazprombank which Poland and Bulgaria had to have a Rouble account in this bank to make transactions. Its time to look back whether their decision in sanctioning Russia was right.

tygeade

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Quote from: marine4u on April 27, 2022, 02:28:25 PM

In terms of pure motives, this is completely understandable. No one denied the power they had in oil and gas, they needed to untie the ropes tied to the rocks to minimize the extent of the sinking. They may accept bitcoin as an alternative to the ruble, but it would be better to strengthen their native currency.

I think Putin is still the knifeman in this regard. Winter is coming and the initiative is in their hands. I expect the US and EU response to this scenario and I think the symptoms can last longer and there is no exception in the European countries.

It would be counterintuitive if they start accepting bitcoin. I mean it would help them bypass the sanctions when they want to get money out, which is what people wanted to do, oligarchs mainly, because they had too much money in Russia tied up and they wanted to get it out when they heard about sanctions.

But when they want money in, then they need to accept ruble just so that people would buy ruble and make it gain some value. We should all remember that it started at 70's range per dollar, then went to as high as 130's if I am not wrong and back to where it was, maybe even a little bit better all thanks to the fact that they force everyone to pay with ruble.

Pomogator

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Yes, they did turn it off. After this news, many countries began to open special ruble accounts to pay for gas. Most small European countries cannot survive without Russian gas. I think Poland and Bulgaria will close their gas debts in rubles and will again receive gas. If the rest of the countries will not pay for gas in rubles, then they will also face the same fate.

adaseb

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So is the gas shut off or not. Basically getting conflicting info. Yesterday there was news it was shut off and then hours later there was confirmation that it’s back on. And today it’s in the news again that it’s shut off. So is the news lagging what is happening in real time?

Looking at the USDRUB chart you can see that many people are buying Rubles to pay for the gas it seems. It’s gaining value very quick according to the chart. Very volatile forex pair recently.

Darker45

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This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

Hydrogen

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Putin announced gas must be purchased in rubles (didn't I later read somewhere that this was a hoax demand by Putin). It seems Putin follows through on his promises.

Could people lose faith in the european union if it fails to negotiate with russia and provide its states with protection? The EU is in a difficult situation being geographically located near to russia and china while attempting to maintain friendly relations with both.

Is there anyone who will step in to fill the vacuum and provide poland and bulgaria with alternatives? I think Elon Musk might do it if he hadn't already spent $40 billion on twitter. How much would it cost for europeans to develop alternatives to russian gas?

Topic: Russia suspends gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay in rouble - page 3. (Read 605 times)