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Topic: Satoshi Buckets - A game with a winning strategy! 1 BTC GIVEAWAY, 0.3 BTC LEFT. - page 2. (Read 9752 times)

full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Thanks for the clarification, bitshy!


There are three reasons why you might still want to play in red in this situation:

- You might expect green or blue to get higher by the time red meets the threshold.
- You might be feeling lucky.
- There is a massive giveaway going on that means that playing in red is still a net positive even if it is originally a net negative. (Hey! That sounds familiar!)50%


If we discount 3 as it's only a temporary thing, I'm not sure that someone trying to develop a strategy would rely on luck, which means we can rule out 2. Therefore, we're left with 1: "You might expect green or blue to get higher...." and I honestly don't think that's enough of an incentive to drop into red. Perhaps consider throwing a lifeline into play? Something like if you go in on red and the total of the red bucket is 33% or greater of the three buckets, then you have a 1 in 10 chance to get thrown a lifeline - ie your money stays in red bucket (minus your 1% bitshy rake of course). This gives the player an incentive to back the red bucket AND lures players away from green and blue because there's a 1 in 5 chance they won't get the winnings from red falling. I dunno. Maybe that's overcomplicating it and stupid.


Quote
Quote
5% Trans Fee (Est.)

Right now the estimated transaction fee is actually 0.4%, often less.

Yup - I was just throwing a number out there for the sake of illustration - didn't have the inclination to figure out the exact %! Smiley

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Sorry, this is an error with my description of the game! The reward is proportional to the amount of money you put in! Otherwise there really would be no incentive to bet more than 0.005.

I updated the description on the site.

Good stuff! Smiley
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Surely in this situation, the game should be offering up a carrot on a stick to encourage people to drop coins into red?

There are three reasons why you might still want to play in red in this situation:

- You might expect green or blue to get higher by the time red meets the threshold.
- You might be feeling lucky.
- There is a massive giveaway going on that means that playing in red is still a net positive even if it is originally a net negative. (Hey! That sounds familiar!)

Also, if I increased the bucket threshold to 0.05 BTC, it would be advantageous to place a minimum bet in green, in the analogous situation. Then the expected value of each bucket would change once again. So perhaps when we jump to the next Satoshi Buckets round threshold (which will happen some day, I'm pretty sure) that particular situation cannot occur. (Though similar situations probably still can.)

Quote
5% Trans Fee (Est.)

Right now the estimated transaction fee is actually 0.4%, often less.

Quote
92% Split proportionally amongst other bucket supporters.

Sorry, this is an error with my description of the game! The reward is proportional to the amount of money you put in! Otherwise there really would be no incentive to bet more than 0.005.

I updated the description on the site.

[EDIT: I edited this post to add more thoughts.]
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Here's an interesting scenario:



So at this point, no buckets will fall, because there is not enough money in red. However, nobody with any brains is going to drop coin into red as it has the highest chance of dropping and also the lowest long-term outlook.

Surely in this situation, the game should be offering up a carrot on a stick to encourage people to drop coins into red?

EDIT: Also -

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When a bucket falls: 2% of its value is returned to its backers (to signal the fallen bucket), 1% of its value is donated to Bitshy Productions, a transaction fee is paid, and then the remaining value is split in half. Each half is divided equally among the supporters of the other two buckets.

Shouldn't it be like this:

1% Bitshy
2% Losers
5% Trans Fee (Est.)
92% Split proportionally amongst other bucket supporters. So for example, if 4 people are in for 0.005 and 1 person is in for 0.01, the person with 0.01 should get 33% of the 92% split and the other 4 people should each get 17% of the 92% split.

As it is at the moment, there is no incentive to bet anything higher than 0.005 in a bucket, which means that as people learn, you'll be missing out on an opportunity to encourage higher bets and by extension a higher rake back for bitshy! Smiley
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Ok, Satoshi Buckets is officially back up!
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Oh boy! The site is back up, the server is booting. It should be working in about 15 minutes. Until then, be skeptical about the bucket totals. (Or just look at blockchain.info.)

The giveaway is back on!
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Paging bitshy! Confirmed trans not showing in red bucket - can you take a look?
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Yay, its back up time to play again
hero member
Activity: 759
Merit: 500
I'll watcz this theard. write if page will back!
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
I am so sorry, everyone.

The site is still down. The server is still down. The host says there was a critical hardware failure -- the physical server machine has broken down. This was certainly not caused by Satoshi Buckets -- something more fundamental is at stake. Unfortunately, on my end, the only thing I can do is wait.

If this goes on much longer, I will repay all outstanding bets. Unfortunately, without access to the server, I cannot return individual transactions without returning all of them. Otherwise, if the situation is resolved soon, all of the bucket money will stay in the buckets and will be processed as normal when the service is up and running again. (Nothing was lost in the server crash. The Bitcoin network keeps track of every transaction.)

I hope the server comes back up in the next couple of days, but the server host hasn't given a timeline, and they haven't given me an update since Saturday.

Needless to say, the giveaway is suspended until the server is back up.

full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Yeah I have been having trouble also I was wondering what was up or if it was just me having trouble getting on the site.


Bitshy said the site was down as of a couple of days ago and that his hosting guy was looking into it. Would love an update though, as I really want to start playing some more Smiley (Not to mention that we haven't had any 0.1btc prize winners announced for a while now....)
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 500
Time is on our side, yes it is!
Yeah I have been having trouble also I was wondering what was up or if it was just me having trouble getting on the site.
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Bitshy -

Any updates on the downtime? I'm getting serious withdrawal here (plus I still have coins sitting in buckets!)
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Is anyone else having problems connecting to Satoshi Buckets

Hello folks, the server is down. :-/ The host says they're fixing the issue, so all we can do is wait.
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
Is anyone else having problems connecting to Satoshi Buckets
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
Hello folks, the server is down. :-/ The host says they're fixing the issue, so all we can do is wait.

Bitshy - what times do you consider your peak playing hours? Seems mostly European friendly hours to me Smiley

I think so too.
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1007
Bitshy - what times do you consider your peak playing hours? Seems mostly European friendly hours to me Smiley

Good question. I think maybe some type of chart that is broken down into hours (or even like 2 hour blocks) showing the payments input would help. Ex: 2PM: 5 (this would represent 2PM and there being 5 payments total). Doesn't even need to show the amounts. Just something to help visualize when the best time to hang out on the site is for gaming.
full member
Activity: 173
Merit: 100
Bitshy - what times do you consider your peak playing hours? Seems mostly European friendly hours to me Smiley
newbie
Activity: 42
Merit: 0
A history of the most recent transactions (only when a bucket falls) would be nice , complete with time, tx link and payments.

Thanks for the feedback! :-)

I'm planning to implement a history feature in a couple weeks, when I finally have time to sit down and do it. In the meanwhile, you can click on the bucket images to be taken to blockchain.info for each bucket. You can also download http://satoshibuckets.bitshy.org/live/history.csv, if you want to, which contains (very basic) information on each round / block.
sr. member
Activity: 384
Merit: 250
A history of the most recent transactions (only when a bucket falls) would be nice , complete with time, tx link and payments.
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