Topic: Satoshi Buckets - A game with a winning strategy! 1 BTC GIVEAWAY, 0.3 BTC LEFT. - page 8. (Read 9752 times)

Bwahahahah! The blue bucket finally fell, after a 15-round streak!

All buckets must fall ... eventually.

Same! I can now afford to buy a mcdouble now for free! 

The blue bucket has made me so much profit so far

Bug in calculating transaction fees caused blue bucket not to fall on block 00000000000001245368c5bd7af28e67a97dff2ad001e895d816d862a98103e1. Instead, red bucket fell on the next block. Bug has been fixed, and a reimbursement has been issued to the lone backer of the red bucket: 19SkgDGkD7GGcCtLMxQzToHBJm37fcBLLE.

I can confirm that block 0000000000000063db17bc3c0d4dcb6b5fd0ba2d0bc0a50fe826f61b6e5e3e83 was accidentally skipped. I was restarting and fixing the Satoshi Buckets daemon when a block fell through. Fortunately the next block, 000000000000013befd159d14fa549c52d5e9dbc1596e0ed254e742b31b4e38c falls in the same range, so nothing was affected.

Full disclosure: The design for Satoshi Buckets is provably fair, unless some block is missed. I, the administrator, could theoretically have set up the server so that I decide which blocks are acted on, and which ones are missed, in order to manipulate which buckets fall. I don't do this, and I won't do this, and I don't have time to engage in such actions when there are real features to implement and other software to write.

The only way to make Satoshi Buckets completely provably fair is to make it go back and check every block that has happened. This feature is a little bit beyond my capabilities right now. So to mitigate the possibility for abuse, I will try to keep Satoshi Buckets from missing any blocks, and I make the following pledge: From now on, if I ever add money to any bucket, I will add the same amount of money to all the buckets. (As a donation to players, and to keep the rounds coming.) This way there is no incentive for me to manipulate the buckets (which I won't do, either).

My main address is 1Ftr7B5U4DVsCh1q2mh3XLmH25XeeU7P9F. I use the address below (in my signature) only to receive donations to Bitshy Productions.

Ok, what if you have a timer.  After all the buckets receive at least 1 bet, a 15 minute timer starts.  When timer reaches 0, then the next block decides.  That would allow the pots to get larger, and players will have a better chance of knowing whether or not their bet will make it in a given round.

This seems like great fun! Go Red and Blue!

Thanks for the feedback! I do want to add a history, soon.

As for next round estimate, I'm afraid it is not quite possible: at any given moment the estimated next round time is around 10 minutes away (when difficulty is adjusted). However, I could do something similar to vanity miner: give the current probability that a round will have already triggered, and tell you when the probability reaches certain milestones (50%, 75%, 90%, etc). For example, "Round probability: 52% (75% in 3 minutes)."

from satoshibuckets.bitshy.org:  "A round is triggered every time a new block is mined, as long as each bucket has at least ฿0.01. The bucket that falls depends on the last two hex digits of the mined block: if c0 or higher, the blue bucket falls (probability 64/256); if between 6b and bf, the green bucket falls (probability 85/256); if 6a or lower, the red bucket falls (probability 107/256). Only confirmed transactions over ฿0.01 are part of the round. When a bucket falls: 0.5% of its value is returned to its backers (to signal the fallen bucket), 3% of its value is donated to Bitshy Productions, a transaction fee is paid, and then the remaining value is split in half. Each half is divided equally among the supporters of the other two buckets"


Maybe it would be easier if you change the avg. payouts number to the estimated expected value amount for a .01 bet and/or other various bet amounts placed on that bucket(estimated since future bets could alter it).

edit.

You should add a history of previous bucket falls on the game webpage, and perhaps estimate of when the next round will decide(assuming all buckets are funded).

Satoshi Buckets has passed the ten round mark! In the last ten rounds:

• Red won 5 times, with ฿0.10 = $12.91 received total.
• Green won 8 times, with ฿0.121 = $14.75 received total.
• Blue won 7 times, with ฿0.071 = $8.65 received total.

Hehehe, congrats!


Thanks! That would be nice. More people playing it means there is a bit more strategy, too. I'm a fan of games that aren't just pure chance!

Cool concept, I really like it. Hopefully more people play so the pool gets a bit bigger

Yay, got my first payout

Go blue!

I removed the payout percentage numbers. Is this less confusing?

Thanks for the feedback! I will try to include an explanation on the page.

Here is what the numbers mean. Each payout is a number "x1.1" or "x0.9" or something. You multiply this number by how many Bitcoins you spent. So if you spent "0.01 BTC", a payout of "x1.1" means a payout of "0.011 BTC". Now let me explain what the various payout numbers mean:

• Payout 42% - This is the immediate payout (i.e. this single round's payout) if the red bucket falls (42% chance).
• Payout 33% - This is the immediate payout (i.e. this single round's payout) if the green bucket falls (33% chance).
• Payout 25% - This is the immediate payout (i.e. this single round's payout) if the blue bucket falls (25% chance).
• Short-Term - This is the average immediate payout, taking into account all 3 payouts above.
• Long-Term - This is the average payout after an indefinite number of rounds. This is calculated via simulation. In this simulation, the value in a fallen bucket is replaced by a minimum bet.
• Optimistic - This is like Long-Term, but instead of replacing fallen buckets with the minimum bet, we are keeping them the same value. This means we get a larger expected payout. ... But you have to be a little bit optimistic.

How do the "payout" numbers work? its a bit confusing...

Thanks!  

This is kind of neat. No idea if its going to get much attention but I'll send .01 to try it out shortly 

Just a heads up. I changed the minimum amount per round requirement. Now it's only necessary for there to be ฿0.01 in each bucket for a round to be triggered on new block. This means that, at this exact moment, anyone betting on the green bucket has an expected payout of 120%.