Naively increasing the block size isn't the be all answer. Sure, when the workload (mempool) is just a bunch of classic small transactions with few inputs then it's great for low fees. But when a transaction comes along with a huge number of inputs (innocent or malevolent) it will clog up the works forcing everyone to perform a long computation to verify it. One of these monsters can ruin your day if the calculation takes a significantly longer than 1 block interval. Or does it? So, we're behind for a little while but then we catch up. Or are we saying there are monsters out there that could take hours or even days to verify?
Is there a tendency over time for transactions to become bushier? When the exchange rate is much larger then the Bitcoin amounts in transaction will tend to be smaller. Does this lead to fragmentation?
thats under the assumtion that with a 2mb buffer.. miners will allow themselves to jump to 1.995mb of data instantly.
the real assumtion is however just like in 2013. miners knew they suddenly became able to grow passed the 500k bug and utilize the 1mb buffer. but it took a couple years for them to slowly grow,
and that was the decision of the miners.
we should not leave it to blockstream to set a 1.1mb limit every 2 years knowing that miners will be at the max in maybe 4 months.
instead it should be a 2mb buffer and then let the miners have their own separate preferential rules to grow slowly and just ignore obvious spam transactions until they drop out of the mempool after 48 hours.
knowing that they can happily grow by 0.1mb very 4months+ without needing to ask blockstream for permission or receive abuse or insults
analogy
knowing one day you are going to have 19 children in the next xx years(you already have 9 and live in a 10bedroom house).
(1.9mb data in x years time, currently at 900k data with a 1mb buffer)would you go through the headache of 2 years of mortgages and legal stuff to get an 11 bedroom house then another 2 years of headaches for a 12 bedroom house
or would you:
go through one headache and get a 20 bedroom house and then spend the next 20 years impregnating your wife 10 times, slowly gaining a child once every couple years.
i know segwit tries to say, lets stay with 10 rooms and fit in some bunkbeds.. so more kids can fit into the 10 rooms. but the problem is that blockstreams other features. like confidential transaction codes. makes all the kids obese with twice the amount of clothing that needs storing too.. so the house becomes overcrowded and slow to get everyone ready in the morning.
which leads to blockstream to instead of expanding to a 20 bedroom house. pushes some of the kids to get adopted by the neighbours(sidechains). and only allowed to visit the real family home if they pay rent