What is the probability that the reason for the non movement of Satoshi coins is that the private key has been lost ( and what implications does this have?)?
As wallets have become more secure would these coins not be moved to something considered "safer" ?
When was a large chunk last moved? If it was years ago does this not support the likelihood of a lost key and the inability to access these coins?
If there is proof/indication that these are still active/ accessible it would be nice to see that to put my mind at rest
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If there is no convincing proof of continued access then this article can be ignored.
http://www.coindesk.com/dangerous-satoshi-nakamoto/Satoshi certainly has a lot of funds. Bitcoin security consultant Sergio Lerner's oft-cited analysis puts the figure at around 1m BTC, based on the early mining that he or she did.
Most of those coins were unspent, the exceptions being some test transactions during the first ten days after Satoshi mined the genesis block (the first block on the blockchain).So many conspiracy theories about that. At least there is some funny part of it ...
In my opinion. Let say that "you" are Satoshi.
1. You must be a genius minded man/men. Perhaps not poor and you know how to earn money. You are economy and coding expert.
2. When Satoshi was mining his thousands of Bitcoins price per 1
BTC was very low. For him it was non-sense to spend his mined coins. He don't need few dollars..
3. When Satoshi was "gone" it was the middle of December 2011 price per 1
BTC was @~$3.9, Well, he already had nice amount of money
4. Satoshi used all securities to stay anonymous. So he decided to leave those coins like they are
And well ... when he will (maybe) spend them after 10-20 years ... imagine how rich he will be?
Then it make all sense
5. We don't know who is Satoshi. Most likely he is mining bitcoins
and he is perhaps coding many different things as he created bitcoin - he must be big inventor!
So ... he have money to live (I believe). He don't want to finish like Tesla. That's all. That's why coins are waiting for the times, when he will be able to show his face or just will make sure that he is untraceable after spending any of those coins.
6. Maybe one day we will know
... now nothing is for sure
we can only speculate.
7. I think he have also some other economic reasons to keep those coins where they are.
Kind regards.