Topic: Satoshi's Fortune lower bound is 100M USD(DEBATE GOING ON, DO NOT TWEET!) - page 8. (Read 127943 times)

Can we safely assume Satoshi mined blocks 1 and 2 ?

Both blocks have 32 leading zeros, very similar to the following  32K blocks!!!

So I can tell you with confidence that you mined very few blocks (e.g. 10 blocks)  during that time and you're not millonaire, or you are part of the Satoshi group, period.
 

I have some evidence, from a comment in Bitcoin 0.1 source code, that Satoshi miner took "a few seconds" to do 2^18 hashes. That "fact" contradicts the hypothesis that Satoshi PC mined block 1.

That can ONLY MEAN that Satoshi (the person or the group) had 16 computers
OR the  comment in the source code is too old to be taken seriously...

If you want to promote Bitcoin, you don't pass bitcoins by sending private keys, you encourage people to download the client application and send them using the transaction system!

Also, if you send private keys, the receiver must re-send them to himself to be sure he owns them.

He did not. I mined during that time— so did many other people I've talked to. As you're probably aware the original software mined _very_ slowly, and contemporary hardware was slow. Heck even a fairly current machine with state of the art software can just barely do enough hashrate for difficulty 1. (and god, before more handout requests come: Bitcoin was worthless then, the software was annoying windows-gui only— I ran it in wine+vncserver, and I didn't keep my original wallet)

Its nice when bad arguments are so easily falsified.

The coins created by the genesis block are forever unspendable.

And what if Satoshi started passing out free BTC's to people? There was some dude doing that on redit a few days ago. Could be Satoshi (or the group known as Satoshi).

But a single computer in 2009 could do 2^32 hashes in 10 minutes. So if we assume that Satoshi PC was all time powered on mining, then we MUST accept that almost all the coins were generated by him. Why would Satoshi turn off his PC if he foresaw the future?
The average number of zeros in block hashes in that range is 33, not more. The average number of zeros in the first 30 blocks is 32.8.
We must accept that during the first two hours he was mining alone!

Therefore there was, at average, a single or maybe two PC  mining (but rarely) until block 36288.

So your argument is flawed

Please try to refute this argument!


My prior argument says exactly that: IF he was continuously mining, then he was mining almost alone.


Everybody read that Hal mined the block 70-something, which means that he mined very little, as most of the people in that time interval.


People downloaded the software, mined a few blocks, and dumped it. Almost everybody except for Satoshi.

So again, IF he was mining continuously in that interval, then he has at least 500k BTC now, with independence if somebody else was mining or not.

I would pay BTC1 for BTC1 from the genesis block.

would you pay extra for one of the very first btc's ever mined?

One thing to note about the blocks from genesis to 30,000 or so is that
a) They, for the most part, all appear to have different coinbase transactions.
b) They are also almost completely unspent.

I think the likeliest scenario is that hundreds of people downloaded and ran the client then, got a bunch of blocks that were at the time useless because they were valueless, then deleted their clients.  Recall that in May 2010, bitcoins were only trading for 0.0025 USD each.  It's my personal guess that these coins are just lost to the chain forever.

To assist in deepceleron chart.   

To find a block at difficulty 1 requires an average of 2^32 hashes.  So 50 blocks per day = ( 50 * 2^32) / (60 * 60 * 24 * 1000^2) = 2.485 MH/s

 50 blocks per day = ~2.5 MH/s
100 blocks per day = ~5.0 MH/s
144 blocks per day = ~7.2 MH/s
150 blocks per day = ~7.5 MH/s
200 blocks per day = ~9.9 MH/s

Mining was not constant either during 2009, it's up to you to figure out how much is Satoshi:

That is an incorrect assumption, remember the default behaviour of Bitcoin was to generate coins with just one checkbox in the options menu. You will find there are many people trying out Bitcoin, and before this forum opened, there was about six months of (lost) chit chat on a sourceforge forum too, so it's hard to examine records of people trying it out (or leaving it running):

2009-06-13 06:41

The new Bitcoin website/portal is up at bitcoin.sourceforge.net.  
Forums and a wiki are included, so you're welcome to join discussion  
and wiki documentation.

Martti Malmi
Bitcoin Web Developer


From here...





But what is true is that anybody running Bitcoin that year with a consumer Core 2 would make about 2000 BTC a day.
[Bounty] 201600 BTC for a time machine, I only need a few hours...

Some flaws with the analysis.

1) Difficulty couldn't go below 1 & the "network" has no idea what the hashing power is.  We can only guesstimate the hashing power based on the time between blocks.  If you look at the period of time between blocks in the first year you will notice there is variance.  Variance can either be natural variance from the mining process or changes in hashing power.    It is simply a false statement to claim the hashrate was a constant 7 MH/s.  There is no way to prove that is true and it arguably never was.  The spreadsheet is merely a guesstimate at an aproximate hashrate based on the average time between blocks of the preceding period and is subject to error like any hashrate estimate (i.e the times between blocks was X and since the AVERAGE block requires 4.2 billion hashes the hashrate would need to be ~y to solve block at this rate ON AVERAGE).

2) There is no evidence that Satoshi mined alone the entire time.  Hal Finney reports mining early (in the first 100 or so blocks) and there are other reports of people mining on and off during the early mailing list days.


3) The early client "mined" automatically in the background when running.  For Satoshi to have mined all the blocks for the first year that would mean nobody, not a single person ever downloaded the client which is simply false.

On edit:
4) The first 2016 block interval took 28 days and the next 7 took on average 17 days (with a deviation of only +/- 1 day).  This strongly suggests interest significantly increased after the first week.  One could conclude that the first week was Satoshi alone but I don't think that is likely either.  By May hashing power had fallen significantly  with the 2016 timeframe rising from ~17 days to 28 and then up to a peak of 42.  While there is some variance due to the nature of difficulty to think that Satoshi was the sole miner one would have to think that when the network was at its slowest Satoshi intentionally reduced his own hashing power to roughly half of that in the earlier weeks.   

Like I said...force.

The bottom feeders are going to come out of the woodwork to chastise the rich. How dare he create a revolutionary new currency and benefit from it.

How dare he combine risk, work and thought for reward. Such a thing is unheard of. He should have earned it through favor and force.

This assumption is at least partly wrong based on what Hal Finney says in this thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1643833


I assume Satoshi has many coins but I don't begrudge him any of them. He deserves them but I suspect he is not some one whose main motivation was to become rich.

Also my understanding is that the first block is un-spendable. I think I've read that Satoshi did this as he was the only person who could mine this block so it would be unfair if he could spend it but subsequent blocks were up for grabs by anyone who was mining (admittedly in practice probably only Satoshi and maybe Hal and some other very early adopters).

satoshi was so smart he had the forward thinking to generate a new private key address for each block he mined. Hence the reason there are 40+ thousand addresses with just 50 bitcoins in them. (Conjecture)

That is the next thing I was planing to do. But I´ll do it on monday....

I said "if true". Can you please answer my question if you have a clue? How can I find out whether a significant amounth of coins of the first blocks where touched in front of major crashes?

How do you think you can tell it was satoshi only? What you have to know is that difficulty 1 is the minimum, it cannot go below that.
So if the network power was derived by the difficulty it would seem to be constant.

Satoshi him/themselves mined the first block themselves which is the Genesis Block, it was never "pre-mined" or started off with Bitcoin in the system already. Obviously at the very start of Bitcoin only a couple people were mining to begin with, and nothing to really do with the coins they generated until now.