Sentiment in 2011 - page 4. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Melbustus

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Quote from: Melbustus on May 02, 2013, 03:36:38 PM

...
This reminds me of Fred Wilson's blog post from November 2011 where he noted:

"The question remains if the Bitcoin algorithm or some other algorithm (possibly a derivative of the Bitcoin algorithm that deals with some of Bitcoin's weaknesses?) will ultimately win out. That's an important issue that has a lot to do with when this space becomes investable."

Wonder what his thoughts on alts and the investability of the space are now...

Guess I have my answer now:

"The Most Important Early-Stage Investor Of The Last 10 Years Just Made A Huge Bet On Bitcoin" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-years-twitter-zynga-investor-121935658.html

Frozenlock

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You know guys, it would take less time if you just said "I don't know". Cheesy

N12

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Because the Humble Indie Bundle people have finally accepted Bitcoin thanks to Coinbase. Grin

No, just a hunch based on the continued high activity I'm seeing still in the Bitcoin community. I would have expected people to get bored. Same goes for the money on MtGox.

Quote from: Maged on May 10, 2013, 12:18:44 AM

Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2013, 12:10:11 AM

I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

That means that you weren't wrong. This is why crashes hurt so badly. You end up thinking that you were wrong, end up buying, see the price go down a bit, immediately realize that you weren't wrong, then sell at a loss. If you aren't thinking that you were wrong, that's when you should be worried.

Yes, I realize that. I'm only holding a small part. I don't think there is a way to know which direction this market is headed until we see an actual breakout. And even then, we might be simply headed for a huge bull trap.

It's true, the bear market is still a strong possibility. It's only been one month, and so we might be in July 2011 where after weeks of stagnation, the price broke down. I'm going to keep my eyes open and see if if this is the beginning of the "long, slow slide".

Maged

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Quote from: N12 on May 10, 2013, 12:10:11 AM

I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

That means that you weren't wrong. This is why crashes hurt so badly. You end up thinking that you were wrong, end up buying, see the price go down a bit, immediately realize that you weren't wrong, then sell at a loss. If you aren't thinking that you were wrong, that's when you should be worried.

N12

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I am beginning to think there is a chance I was wrong. It would be great.

Either way, I believe we will get a very clear signal at the end of this stagnation.

bitcon

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and also litecoin will end up producing more coins than bitcoin.

Frozenlock

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Quote from: adpinbr on May 03, 2013, 07:46:15 PM

Quote from: Frozenlock on May 03, 2013, 07:28:37 PM

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". Cheesy

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

Because transaction times are a wash.
Reduced to 2 min? Well that's still too long for a coffee transaction.

The same complementary services required to deal with transaction times are necessary for Litecoin.
Except that now you have more blocks to deal with. And you have a higher risk of orphan block.

Oh, also it doesn't fix centralized mining at all. (Which was foreseen anyway, by the way. Bitcoin was never intended to be mined by everyone.)
If litecoins really become valuable, they will also have ASIC.
Remember when Litecoin claimed it was GPU proof? Well we all know how that turned out...

Better wealth distribution?
Ah yes, you mean to litecoins early adopters, rather than bitcoiners.
When I was born, I had 0 dollar and everyone else had plenty.

So Bitcoin/Litecoin are essentially the same, except that Bitcoin has the first mover advantage, plenty of businesses accepting it and a team of developers to improve it.

That's what I mean by more risky.

Best of luck in your investment.

virtualfaqs

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Quote from: adpinbr on May 03, 2013, 07:46:15 PM

Quote from: Frozenlock on May 03, 2013, 07:28:37 PM

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". Cheesy

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

I thought faster transaction times for LTC was a misconception?

adpinbr

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Quote from: Frozenlock on May 03, 2013, 07:28:37 PM

Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". Cheesy

Umm no cause the risks are identical, while the profit are much larger. I say identical because Litecoin is the only viable crypto-currency for long term success at the moment. so if you believe in bit coin why wouldn't you believe in a coin that fixes centralized mining, better wealth distribution, and faster transaction times?

Frozenlock

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Investing in LTC is like saying "Bitcoin is too safe for my taste... I want more risk/profits". Cheesy

adpinbr

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Quote from: N12 on April 27, 2013, 03:59:47 AM

Here's an interesting question: What will happen once Litecoin begins to trade on MtGox as they recently confirmed and share the same pool of USD that Bitcoin currently enjoys? Sure, they already trade on BTC-E, but that is a trivial amount of volume and attention compared to MtGox. Even trivially modified altcoins have grown immensely popular in a way I would have never imagined. What happens once the media starts to report on them?

I don't think I ever owned any Litecoins, but this will certainly be interesting to watch.

@arepo
I thought much the same near the bottom and I agree, we are at a crossroad. One thing to consider is that I believe the risk in Bitcoins is currently far higher than prices justify, in my view.

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 03:51:26 AM

it's not even that the fundamentals are improving -- the fundamentals are changing. deflation is kicking in.

Man, what a marketing language/buzzword bullshit, I thought better of you. Perhaps the thing to deflate will be the Bitcoin price.

PS: I hate to do ad hominems, but why are you getting so certain recently + on the verge of spam with the topics? To sell your reports? I remember you were wrong during the whole rally and then barely said anything. It would be too ironic if the same thing happened now.

I think that bitcoin will slowly slide to a fall as non-believers despair easily that the price doesn't go up to fast, and they didn't make their promised easy millions. Personally i would sell all my coins and wait to pick them back up at 70. But I didn't. Cause I invested everything I had in litecoin. I believe the currencies are pegged, but due to the fact that I cannot anticipate when mtgox will begin support I'm just waiting it out. oh and the rise in ltc value covers my btc loses, so I'm basically breaking even

johnblaze

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Blitz

what do you mean by the Great Dollar Extraction?

Frozenlock

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Quote from: N12 on May 03, 2013, 08:11:25 AM

This time is different than 2011.

This time it's worse.

Yeah, I'll need a little more argument than that.

N12

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This time is different than 2011.

This time it's worse.

The Great Dollar Extraction is upon us.

Melbustus

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Quote from: just1nmc on May 01, 2013, 06:33:37 PM

Quote from: N12 on May 01, 2013, 06:00:16 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.

I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing.

Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds.

I think crypto-currencies are a long way off if bitcoin doesn't make it, so I'm really hoping it doesn't play out like that. It would to be hard to get people to put money and trust into an idea that already failed.

I don't believe slightly better versions of bitcoin, like the alt coins there are now, are enough to overcome that.

Agreed. It would be problematic if an alt that didn't have greatly superior properties succeeded at large scale at the expense of bitcoin. Such success would likely be short-term, as it would erode confidence in non-gov-backed crypto-currencies in general. We just have to trust the market to be rational in aggregate over medium/long timescales.

That said, if alts that fill different niches succeed, or an alt that IS much better comes along and succeeds, that's cool. It just has to make solid sense.

This really is the primary long-term threat to bitcoin and non-gov-backed crypto-currencies in general. This reminds me of Fred Wilson's blog post from November 2011 where he noted:

"The question remains if the Bitcoin algorithm or some other algorithm (possibly a derivative of the Bitcoin algorithm that deals with some of Bitcoin's weaknesses?) will ultimately win out. That's an important issue that has a lot to do with when this space becomes investable."

Wonder what his thoughts on alts and the investability of the space are now...

just1nmc

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Quote from: N12 on May 01, 2013, 06:00:16 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.

I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing.

Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds.

I think crypto-currencies are a long way off if bitcoin doesn't make it, so I'm really hoping it doesn't play out like that. It would to be hard to get people to put money and trust into an idea that already failed.

I don't believe slightly better versions of bitcoin, like the alt coins there are now, are enough to overcome that.

Rampion

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Quote from: Maged on April 27, 2013, 03:24:36 AM

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 03:15:49 AM

Quote from: N12 on April 27, 2013, 02:50:25 AM

Oh, and of course that there are no popular actually used (ie, by lots of people with lots of volume) economic applications I know of besides SatoshiDice and Silk Road. There is still no Bitcoin economy.

this is not true... bitcoin is finding its niches in many small places, just planting seeds -- no flowers yet, but soon Tongue

i can also tell you from first hand experience that seals with clubs (bitcoin poker) saw a massive influx of new users over the course of the last 6 months.

i think you're underestimating the amount of media coverage we received... bitcoin was all over reddit, tumblr, etc, in a big way. these kinds of things have a gradual effect.

in other words, i think the bitcoin userbase is expanding at an unprecendented rate, even still, though said figure may have taken a hit after the crash.

The question is, how different is this from 2011, percentage wise? If it's about the same, then our target price is around $30 ($15 (pre-current-bubble) * ($2 (post-2011-bubble)/$1 (pre-2011-bubble)).

That's about right. But I would say it's 100% different (more people understanding BTC, better news post-burst), so our target price is around $60. And long term, BTC looks stronger than ever - but still needs real businesses around it.

N12

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Isn't it pretty much decided that the blocksize limit will be increased?

AFAIK, there is no consensus whatsoever amongst developers whether it should be done at all. We will likely hit the ceiling before anything is done.

Quote from: ?? on ??

In terms of fundamentals, people are still zealously innovating/building services. I get the feeling there is a generally optimistic mid-term/long-term outlook in terms of bitcoin development/utility.

Judging from your account date, I'll just assume you weren't here in 2011. Back then, following the MtGox hack and some other exchanges failing, there have been good news all along with cool stuff being built. People just didn't care about them, in the same way they didn't care about bad news during the parabolic rise. This market likes to alternate between positive and negative feedback loops. It's not based on "fundamentals" but almost exclusively psychology.

N12

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I would sell my kidney to buy $16 bitcoins (if I could do such a thing). I think we might approach $50 again, or even break it. But it won't last very long at all. New ATH in 2014. Unless of course, bad shit happens to the fundamentals. I'm assuming infrastructure/services growth of past several years continues, as well as increased understanding/appreciation from general public around the world.

I'm not one so bold to assume that the fundamentals will remain unchallenged within a new bear market. I don't know if Bitcoin really will emerge as #1 Digital Cash out of this, because it appears that xyz crapcoins are actually gaining in significance, and at least two of them will be trading on MtGox. Then, there is the tx/block scaling issue and there's the "cp in blockchain" thing.

Basically, I have no idea if Bitcoin is MySpace or not. I'll let the market point that out as the Great Dollar Extraction proceeds.

Maged

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Quote from: arepo on May 01, 2013, 05:36:43 PM

Quote from: Maged on May 01, 2013, 05:23:32 PM

Quote from: arepo on April 27, 2013, 03:41:45 AM

the June '11 event cannot be compared to this. you can be a bear, but not for this reason.

how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.

The run-up to $165 can be explained by the recent sentiment we've had of "It's different this time!". That caused a feedback-loop of more and more people thinking that things are different now, running up the price. Once the market comes to the realization that things really aren't different this time, that's when things will stop being different.

this quote was a little ambiguous. i meant the run-up from the last ATH to $266. the first bit about $165 was pretext.

the run-up was completely different (1000% over months?), and the crash was completely different (80% in days?). this is a completely different price pattern. almost like a reverse-June-bubble, who's run-up was as short as our crash, and whose crash was as long as our run-up.

I think I get where our misunderstanding is here. Where are you saying each bubble started, ended, and collapsed? The way I see it, the 2011 bubble started at $1 (mid-April 2011) and lasted about 2 months with a 3000% increase, crashing 70% over a few days, and 95% over several months. This bubble started in January at around $13.50, and saw a 2000% increase over four and a half months, crashing 80% over a few days. Tell me, how is that different?

Topic: Sentiment in 2011 - page 4. (Read 9418 times)