Topic: Sentiment in 2011 - page 5. (Read 9418 times)
Of course. Sentiment will have to be very bearish after a long period of the downtrend, and ideally, shorting will get popular somewhere and bring us a nice short squeeze to form a real capitulation bottom.
2/32*266=16.625
For perspective. 80% is very large indeed in the short term. That's why I bought the rebound, as it was near certain to retrace a lot. But over the long term?
Many people are still sitting on huge unrealized profits. A too bullish sentiment is well displayed by upvote ratio and abundance of posts like this one. "Just hold, it will go up again".
Make no mistake, the Great Dollar Extraction is here, and it has come to consume us.
For perspective. 80% is very large indeed in the short term. That's why I bought the rebound, as it was near certain to retrace a lot. But over the long term?
Many people are still sitting on huge unrealized profits. A too bullish sentiment is well displayed by upvote ratio and abundance of posts like this one. "Just hold, it will go up again".
Make no mistake, the Great Dollar Extraction is here, and it has come to consume us.
there will be a bear market, but it will (necessarily) end before most people think it will
2/32*266=16.625
For perspective. 80% is very large indeed in the short term. That's why I bought the rebound, as it was near certain to retrace a lot. But over the long term?
Many people are still sitting on huge unrealized profits. A too bullish sentiment is well displayed by upvote ratio and abundance of posts like this one. "Just hold, it will go up again".
Make no mistake, the Great Dollar Extraction is here, and it has come to consume us.
For perspective. 80% is very large indeed in the short term. That's why I bought the rebound, as it was near certain to retrace a lot. But over the long term?
Many people are still sitting on huge unrealized profits. A too bullish sentiment is well displayed by upvote ratio and abundance of posts like this one. "Just hold, it will go up again".
Make no mistake, the Great Dollar Extraction is here, and it has come to consume us.
the June '11 event cannot be compared to this. you can be a bear, but not for this reason.
how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.
The run-up to $165 can be explained by the recent sentiment we've had of "It's different this time!". That caused a feedback-loop of more and more people thinking that things are different now, running up the price. Once the market comes to the realization that things really aren't different this time, that's when things will stop being different.how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.
this quote was a little ambiguous. i meant the run-up from the last ATH to $266. the first bit about $165 was pretext.
the run-up was completely different (1000% over months?), and the crash was completely different (80% in days?). this is a completely different price pattern. almost like a reverse-June-bubble, who's run-up was as short as our crash, and whose crash was as long as our run-up.
the June '11 event cannot be compared to this. you can be a bear, but not for this reason.
how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.
The run-up to $165 can be explained by the recent sentiment we've had of "It's different this time!". That caused a feedback-loop of more and more people thinking that things are different now, running up the price. Once the market comes to the realization that things really aren't different this time, that's when things will stop being different. how can this model account for the recent run-up to $165? nothing like that occurred after the $33 peak, and the proportions are entirely wrong: the run-up was much shorter, and the crash was much longer.
A usual bullish divergence would be a lower low on price and a higher low in the RSI reading.
Very well, we'll talk again in a few weeks.
Very well, we'll talk again in a few weeks.
You wouldn't listen.
How are things now, arepo?
How are things now, arepo?
this isn't the beginning of any long, slow, slide, i'll tell you that. we are very close to a market bottom, we just had to let off some steam.
-===-
-===-
RSI as low as our second visit to $50, yet the price is more than double. can you say bullish divergence?
You wouldn't listen.
How are things now, arepo?
How are things now, arepo?
I think this summer will be mindblowing...
All the mainstream media news, Cyprus bank issues (remember Cyprus is just a little island)
All the mainstream media news, Cyprus bank issues (remember Cyprus is just a little island)
Bitcoins are hotter than ever. I don't think what happened in 2011 can really apply to what's going on now.
This time it's different.
Maybe, maybe not. But every fool who bought at $10 in July or August 2011 because he thought it was a bargain has been proven right. 1300% gain is pretty good compared to everything else. If this time is the same, everyone who buys at $130 will look pretty good in 2 years. If this time is not the same, he will look good in a few months.
Very good point!
Just give it 1 year...let alone 2 years.
Next april I wouldn't be surprised if we are in or above the $500-$800 range.
sr. member
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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Bitcoins are hotter than ever. I don't think what happened in 2011 can really apply to what's going on now.
This time it's different.
Maybe, maybe not. But every fool who bought at $10 in July or August 2011 because he thought it was a bargain has been proven right. 1300% gain is pretty good compared to everything else. If this time is the same, everyone who buys at $130 will look pretty good in 2 years. If this time is not the same, he will look good in a few months.
Very good point!
it sure looks different this time...
i'm not quite sure it was 'just a bubble' anyway -- there might have a been a 'bubble top' but the market was aching for a regular old correction. and it feels like deflation is kicking in now -- BTC price can't go down without some serious selling if demand is growing. i even doubt we'll see below $100 anytime soon -- too many people think thats a cheap coin
--arepo
I keep thinking the same thing, but then I remember that people constantly said your last sentence almost exactly, but about $10 instead of $100 back in 2011. So, I don't know what to think.i'm not quite sure it was 'just a bubble' anyway -- there might have a been a 'bubble top' but the market was aching for a regular old correction. and it feels like deflation is kicking in now -- BTC price can't go down without some serious selling if demand is growing. i even doubt we'll see below $100 anytime soon -- too many people think thats a cheap coin
--arepo
We're not going to make it beyond $3. Go ahead, watch.
These are really excellent. Great OP, I'd love to see a storyline with quotes and linked threads along the way following the history of bitcoin sentiment since early 2011.
I just have a question for those that think this will play out like in 2011, with an eventual decline to pre-bubble levels.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Bearish scenario to $30 (let's entertain this):
1. Price crashes to $30
2. Media starts saying "SEE WE TOLD YOU IT WAS A BUBBLE"
3. Most start buying like crazy (buy ASK side is super thin) because they realize shit I get a second chance to ride the BTC train! CHOO CHOO!
4. Back to $150 in 48 hours lol
5. Profits
** This is what all the so called "bears" are masterbating about on this forum.
+1 this
Back in 2011 the sentiment was a bit "well maybe bitcoin is really a fad and now price will just drop to 0 and no one will use it, after all you can't use it for a lot of things..." wich is why it slowly dropped from 30 to 15 to 10 to 5 to 2.
But today??? After bitcoin went from 2 to 266 instead of dying? With Bitpay reporting millions of $ of transactions each month? Now people are looking to buy cheap bitcoins!
Bitcoins are hotter than ever. I don't think what happened in 2011 can really apply to what's going on now.
This time it's different.
Maybe, maybe not. But every fool who bought at $10 in July or August 2011 because he thought it was a bargain has been proven right. 1300% gain is pretty good compared to everything else. If this time is the same, everyone who buys at $130 will look pretty good in 2 years. If this time is not the same, he will look good in a few months.
Bearish scenario to $30 (let's entertain this):
1. Price crashes to $30
2. Media starts saying "SEE WE TOLD YOU IT WAS A BUBBLE"
3. Most start buying like crazy (buy ASK side is super thin) because they realize shit I get a second chance to ride the BTC train! CHOO CHOO!
4. Back to $150 in 48 hours lol
5. Profits
** This is what all the so called "bears" are masterbating about on this forum.
It couldn't be more true.
I just have a question for those that think this will play out like in 2011, with an eventual decline to pre-bubble levels.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Bearish scenario to $30 (let's entertain this):
1. Price crashes to $30
2. Media starts saying "SEE WE TOLD YOU IT WAS A BUBBLE"
3. Most start buying like crazy (buy ASK side is super thin) because they realize shit I get a second chance to ride the BTC train! CHOO CHOO!
4. Back to $150 in 48 hours lol
5. Profits
** This is what all the so called "bears" are masterbating about on this forum.
I think it could have happened, but it didn't, through various means, buyers somehow reached a kinda Byzantine General style consensus that the battlefield would be $50-$100.
But anyway the particular price point isn't irrelevant, had the support been moved to $32, it could do very little to change people's perceptions about the crash, but the more than 200 million dollars spent on $50-100 could instead buy....7 million bitcoins, so good luck bears with finding so many bitcoins to sell.
I just have a question for those that think this will play out like in 2011, with an eventual decline to pre-bubble levels.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Do you think this will still happen if some of the things being worked on right now come through? I'm mostly referring to the projects that will make bitcoins much easier to buy.
These include the ATMs, Coinlab, Coinsetter, and several other exchanges.
Coinlab and the first ATM are coming out next week, and there's plenty of other projects being worked on. Some of these fundamental improvements seem too important to support a decline back to $30. They would also bring back media coverage and increase the user base.
Bearish scenario to $30 (let's entertain this):
1. Price crashes to $30
2. Media starts saying "SEE WE TOLD YOU IT WAS A BUBBLE"
3. Most start buying like crazy (buy ASK side is super thin) because they realize shit I get a second chance to ride the BTC train! CHOO CHOO!
4. Back to $150 in 48 hours lol
5. Profits
** This is what all the so called "bears" are masterbating about on this forum.
Great, exactly what I felt about you, Arepo. 
I think one fundamental difference between a real prediction/analysis and a FUD is you always post a target in a real prediction and stand by it, so admitting your wrong call is very important.
I think one fundamental difference between a real prediction/analysis and a FUD is you always post a target in a real prediction and stand by it, so admitting your wrong call is very important.
i come from a background in science, i know this -- just like your signature -- falsifiability is key
i've started to really stress rigor in my threads, now, too (partly because if i didn't, ichthyo and others get on my back in two seconds flat
)but not to hijack this thread.. sorry Maged, it is an important one.
--arepo
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